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South Korea pledges new measures to help exporters and boost domestic demand

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    ActionForex
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    South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced additional support to the economy as businesses and domestic demand devastated by the coronavirus pandemic. 36 trillion won of cheap loans will be available to exporters. Measures of 17.7 trillion won will be rolled out to boost consumption and domestic demands. The new measures are on top of the planned economic package of 100 trillion won announced in late March.

    Separately reported by the central bank, Household loans rose a net 9.6 trillion won in March, highest jump since record began in 2004. That came after another record of 9.3 trillion won rise back in February. Mortgage lending rose a net 6.3 trillion won, slowed from February’s 7.8 trillion won.

    New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -73.1, times don’t get much tougher than this

      By
      ActionForex
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      New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -73.1 in the April’s preliminary reading, down from March’s -63.5. Own activity outlook dropped sharply from -26.7 to -61.2. Export intentions dropped from -25.8 to -43.6. Investment intentions dropped from -14.4 to -50.2. Employment intention dropped from -22.5 to -53.8.

      ANZ said, “firms are reeling from the abruptness and ferocity of the storm that has enveloped them, and with uncertainty extreme, planning a way out is very difficult. The quick-fire fiscal and monetary response will have helped, but times just don’t get much tougher than this.”

      Full release here.

      S&P downgrade Australia’s rating outlook as recession will deteriorate fiscal headroom

        By
        ActionForex
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        Rating agency S&P kept Australia’s sovereign rating unchanged at AAA, but downgraded the outlook from “stable” to “negative”. The outlook was upgraded from “negative” to “stable” less than two years ago in September 2018, when the budget came close to balance.

        “The COVID-19 outbreak has dealt Australia a severe economic and fiscal shock” S&P said. “We expect the Australian economy to plunge into recession for the first time in almost 30 years, causing a substantial deterioration of the government’s fiscal headroom at the ‘AAA’ rating level.”

        Nevertheless, “while fiscal stimulus measures will soften the blow presented by the COVID-19 outbreak and weigh heavily on public finances in the immediate future, they won’t structurally weaken Australia’s fiscal position,” S&P said.

        Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the outlook downgrade was “a reminder of the importance of maintaining our commitment to medium term fiscal sustainability.”

        US Mnuchin: We have $6 trillion to put in the economy

          By
          ActionForex
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          US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said “there’s extraordinary demand,” on the small business coronavirus loan program. Overall 3000 lenders have already participated in the USD 349B program. If small businesses cant get the loan today or tomorrow, “don’t worry, there will be money”, he said.

          “We have $6 trillion to put in the economy, we’re meeting with all the advisers on the airlines this week, we’re working very quickly on that,” Mnuchin added. “So I can assure you, the president has instructed us to get this money into the economy fast.”

          White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said he still believes “that in the next four to eight weeks we will be able to reopen the economy and that the power of the virus will be substantially reduced and we will be able to flatten the curve.”

          that when US return to normal, things are going to be different,” he said. “That’s going to be a new feature of American life. And I don’t know how quickly that gets up and going, but it’s going to be very, very important because we obviously want to prevent any recurrences.”

          Japan Abe formally declare emergency, approved JPY 108T stimulus

            By
            ActionForex
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            Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe finally declared state of emergency for seven prefectures today. The one-month emergency period starts today on April 7, covering Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Hyogo and Fukuoka.

            Abe said, “According to experts’ calculations, if all of us make efforts to reduce contact between people by at least 70% and if possible 80%, then in two weeks the increase in infections will peak out and we can start to reduce it.”

            Additionally, the government approved an emergency economic stimulus package that worth JPY 108.2T. That equals to 20% of Japan’s economy output. Direct fiscal spending would amount to JPY 39T, around 7% of the economy.

            UK PM Johnson receives oxygen support in ICU, Raab deputize

              By
              ActionForex
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              UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove told LBC radio today that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is “not on a ventilator no” in ICU. Nevertheless, “the prime minister has received some oxygen support and he is kept under, of course, close supervision” for coronavirus treatment.

              Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise for Johnson. Raab said, “The government’s business will continue. The focus of the government will continue to be on making sure that the prime minister’s direction, all the plans for making sure that we can defeat coronavirus and can pull the country through this challenge, will be taken forward.”

              RBA kept cash rate at 0.25%, very large economic contraction expected in Q2

                By
                ActionForex
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                RBA left cash rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. It also reaffirmed the 0.25% target for 3-year government bond yield with asset purchases. The central bank also said that it “will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.”

                RBA also said noted there is “considerable uncertainty” about the near-term outlook of the economy. Much depends on the successful of coronavirus containment and the length of social distancing. Nevertheless, “a very large economic contraction” is expected in Q2 and unemployment is expected to rise to its “highest level for many years”.

                Full statement here.

                Australia AiG services index dropped to 38.7, lowest since 2009

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped from 43.0 to 38.7 in March. That’s the lowest level since March 2009 and the fourth month of contracting results. AiG said, “the services sector is now entering a difficult period of pandemic-related closures and adjustments from a base already weakened by summer’s bushfire crisis and by longer-term factors”.

                  “Restrictions on human movement and gatherings means closures for many businesses in hospitality, retail, transport, recreation, personal services, education and even community services. Businesses that remain open face falling sales and increasing operational restrictions.”

                  New York Fed: Consumers see chance of job loss jumped

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    The March consumer expectations survey by the New York Fed showed that perceived chance of losing they job jumped to series high. Expected growth in household income and spending decline sharply. Meanwhile, inflation uncertainty increased in both horizons.

                    The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased 4.7 percentage points to 18.5%. The reading is a new series’ high and 4.3 percentage points above the 12-month trailing average.

                    Median household income growth expectations dropped sharply to 2.1%, 0.9 percentage point below its 12-month trailing average. Median household spending growth expectations declined to 2.3%, 0.9 percentage point below its 12-month trailing average.

                    Median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were unchanged at 2.5% but decreased at the three-year horizon to 2.4% in March from 2.6% in February. There was a large increase in median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed by each respondent regarding future inflation outcomes—at the one-year horizon, and a moderate increase at the three-year horizon.

                    Full release here.

                    Gold resumes rebound, heading back to 1700, but no break expected

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Gold is lifted by return of risk appetite today, as DOW is current up over 1000 pts. The break of 1644.67 resistance suggests resumption of whole rebound from 1451.16. Further rise should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 1451.16 to 1644.67 from 1567.78 at 1687.36.

                      However, recent price actions from 1703.28 high are seen as a medium term consolidation pattern, that corrects whole up trend from 1160.17. Hence, we won’t expect a firm break of 1703.28 for now. Instead, another fall should be seen to extend the consolidation. Break of 1567.78 will turn near term outlook bearish for 1451.16.

                      Abe to announce Japan style lockdown in seven prefectures tomorrow

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicated that he could formally announce a month-long state of emergency as soon as on Tuesday. The seven prefectures include Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Hyogo and Fukuoka. Though, he insisted that “we are not changing Japan’s policy, but strengthening it and asking for full cooperation.”

                        “Japan won’t, and doesn’t need, to take lockdown steps like those overseas,” he added. “Trains will be running and supermarkets will be open. The state of emergency will allow us to strengthen current steps to prevent an increase in infections while ensuring that economic activity is sustained as much as possible.”

                        Additionally, Abe is planning to boost virus testing capacity to 20,000 a day, with increased number of hospital beds and ventilators. There will also be cash handouts of JPY 200m to small and midsize businesses.

                        Germany said to start exiting lockdown on April 19

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Reuters reported today that the German Interior Ministry is already drafting a plan to end lockdown and return the country to normal lift, starting April 19. The document assumed that the coronavirus pandemic will last until 2021. But with proper measures, the average number of people infected by one person could be limited below one.

                          the plan is backed by vigorous mechanism that track more than 80% of people with whom an infected person had contacted, and quarantine them. People will be orders to wear masks in public transport and factories and public buildings. Social-distancing measures will remain in place. Events and parties will be forbidden. But shops and schools could reopen while border controls could be relaxed.

                          Separately, government spokesman said “even if some people are demanding it, the government can’t yet give an exit day, a firm date from which everything will be different and the measures relaxed.”

                          UK PMI construction dropped to 39.3, even more severe impact in coming months

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            UK PMI Construction dropped to 39.3 in March, down from 52.6, indicating the steepest contraction output since April 2009. Employment dropped at the fastest pace since September 2010. Business expectations also slumped to lowest since October 2008.

                            Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “The closure of construction sites and lockdown measures will clearly have an even more severe impact on business activity in the coming months. Survey respondents widely commented on doubts about the feasibility of continuing with existing projects as well as starting new work. Construction supply chains instead are set to largely focus on the provision of essential activities such as infrastructure maintenance, safety-critical remedial work and support for public services in the weeks ahead.”

                            Full release here.

                            Eurozone Sentix investor confidence slumped to -42.9, recession will go deeper an dlonger

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to -42.9 in April, down from -17.1. That’s the lowest level on record. Current Situation index dropped from -14.3 to -66.0, also a record low and the largest decline on record. Expectations index, however, improved from -20.0 to -15.8. Sentix said Eurozone economy is in a “deep recession”, which will “go much deeper and longer”.

                              It also said, “the corona virus is keeping the global economy in a stranglehold: without exception, all regions of the world are in a deep recession. Never before has the assessment of the current situation collapsed so sharply in all regions of the world within one month”.

                              Germany Investor Confidence dropped from -16.9 to -36.0, lowest since 2209. Germany Current Situation dropped from -13.3 to -59.3, lowest since 2009. Germany Expectations improved from -20.5 to -9.0. US Investor Confidence dropped from 0.2 to -39.1, lowest since 2009. US Current Situation dropped from 17.8 to -59.0, lowest since 2009. US Expectations dropped from -16.0 to -16.5, lowest since October 2019.

                              Full release here.

                              Consumer confidence in UK had record drop after coronavirus lockdown

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                In an interim COVID-19 flash report, Gfk said UK consumer confidence index has dropped sharply by -25pts to -34, between March 16 and 27. That’s the biggest fall since record began in January 1974.

                                Joe Staton, GfK’s Client Strategy Director, says: “Our COVID-19 ‘flash report’ shows a dramatic result with consumer confidence falling off the cliff in the last two weeks of March. The last time we saw such a decline was during the 2008 economic downturn. Our falling confidence in our personal financial situation and the wider economy reflects the new concern for many across the UK. Despite record grocery sales, and recent peaks for purchases of freezers, TVs and home office equipment as people prepared for a long period in the home, the Major Purchase Index is down 50 points – a stark picture for some parts of the retail industry in the short to medium term.”

                                Full release here.

                                RBNZ Orr will keep monetary support going for as long as necessary

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in a article said the central bank recognized the “threat of COVID-19 to our collective well-being “. It will “keep monetary support going for as long as necessary through QE and other tools.”

                                  He also noted that there are “some very hard yards ahead” while “some businesses will fail, unemployment will rise”. But “many firms will make it through this period through working with their bankers and their own team, and understanding and utilising the Government’s significant and expanding support packages”

                                  He urged New Zealanders to “support each other, think beyond just the next six months or more, and visualise the role you can and will play in the vibrant, refreshed, sustainable, inclusive New Zealand economy.

                                  Spain PM Sanchez: Virus doesn’t respect borders, nor should financing mechanisms

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez urged Europe to “build a wartime economy and promote European resistance, reconstruction and recovery” as the country became the most coronavirus infected country in the continent. Total confirmed cases surged pass 131k, taking over Italy’s near 129k. There were 12,641 deaths recorded, comparing with Italy’s 15,887.

                                    In a piece in Guardian, Sanchez said Europe “must start doing so as soon as possible with measures to support the public debt that many states, including Spain, are taking on. And it must continue to do so when this health emergency is over, to rebuild the continent’s economies by mobilising significant resources through a plan we are calling the new Marshall plan and which will require the backing of all of the EU’s common institutions.”

                                    “In the coming months, the EU member states will inevitably take on greater volumes of debt to deal with the consequences of what is not just a health crisis, but an economic and social crisis,” he added. “That is why the response cannot be the same as that envisaged for asymmetric economic shocks, such as a financial or banking crisis in a single state or group of states. If the virus does not respect borders, then nor should financing mechanisms.”

                                    US ISM non-manufacturing dropped to 52.5, supplier deliveries surged

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite dropped to 52.5 in March, down from 57.3, but beat expectation of 48.0 and stayed in expansionary region. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped -0.8 to 48.0. New orders dropped -10.2 to 52.9. Employment dropped -8.6 to 47.0.

                                      Similar to ISM manufacturing, supplier deliveries jumped 9.7 to 62.1, holding the headline index up. Comments from respondents include: “Supplier capacity and shipping has been slowed due to the coronavirus” and “Global supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 concerns and the number of manufacturers reliant upon China for raw materials, parts and components.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      US NFP dropped -701k, unemployment surged to 4.4%

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        US non-farm payroll employment dropped -701k in March. Two-thirds of the drop occurred in leisure and hospitality. Notable declines also occurred in health case and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

                                        Unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%. That’s the largest over-the-month increase since January 1975. Labor force participation rate dropped -0.7% to 62.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Eurozone retail sales rose 0.9%, EU sales rose 0.8%

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Eurozone retail sales grew 0.9% mom in February, versus expectation of 0.1% mom. The volume of retail trade increased by 2.4% for food, drinks and tobacco and 0.2% for non-food products, while automotive fuels fell by 0.1%.

                                          EU retail sales grew 0.8% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Estonia (+4.4%), Latvia (+3.5%) and Portugal (+3.0%). Decreases were observed in Ireland (-2.7%), Slovenia (-1.8%), Croatia and Poland (both -0.2%).

                                          Full release here.

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