UK headline CPI slowed to 1.7% yoy in February, down form 1.8% yoy, matched expectation. However, core CPI accelerated to 1.7% yoy, up from 1.6% yoy, beat expectation of 1.5% yoy. RPI slowed to 2.5% yoy, down form 2.7% yoy, beat expectation of 2.4% yoy.

PPI input was at -1.2% mom, -0.5% yoy in February, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 3.6% yoy. PPI Output was at -0.3% mom, 0.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 1.4% yoy. PPI output core was at -0.1% mom, 0.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 0.6% yoy.

UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations dropped to -29% in March, down from -18%. 15% of manufacturers reported order books above normal while 44% said they’re below. Manufacturers anticipate output volumes to contract at a faster pace in the next three months (-20%), marking the weakest expectations since the financial crisis (April 2009 -32%).

Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, said: “The manufacturing sector is facing unprecedented challenges due to COVID-19, such as widespread disruption to supply chains and weakening demand due to domestic containment measures. With expectations for output set to fall in the coming months, it’s now more important than ever manufacturers get the support they need.

“The Chancellor’s offer of substantial payroll support, fast access to cash and tax deferral will help prevent job losses and alleviate some strain. But all measures must be constantly assessed to ensure the UK’s manufacturing sector emerges from this crisis with the minimum possible damage.”

Full release here.

UK PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.0 in March, down from 51.7, hitting a 3-month low. PMI Services dropped from 53.2 to 35.7, a record low. PMI Composite dropped from 53.0 to 37.1, also a record low.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“The surveys highlight how the COVID-19 outbreak has already dealt the UK economy an initial blow even greater than that seen at the height of the global financial crisis. With additional measures to contain the spread of the virus set to further paralyse large parts of the economy in coming months, such as business closures and potential lockdowns, a recession of a scale we have not seen in modern history is looking increasingly likely.

“Historical comparisons indicate that the March survey reading is consistent with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 1.5-2.0%, a decline which is sufficiently large to push the economy into a contraction in the first quarter. However, this decline will likely be the tip of the iceberg and dwarfed by what we will see in the second quarter as further virus containment measures take their toll and the downturn escalates.

“Any growth was confined to small pockets of the economy such as food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Demand elsewhere has collapsed, both for goods and services, as increasing numbers of households and businesses at home and abroad close their doors.”

Full release here.