Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped -3.8% to 91.9 in March, hitting the lowest level in five years. More importantly, it’s the second lowest level since the global financial crisis. Across the five component sub-indexes, biggest fall was around expectations for the economy, The “economy, next 12 months” sub-index recorded a spectacular -12.8% drop taking it to 77.9, a five year low.

Westpac said, “The Reserve Bank Board next meets on April 7. Given the clear risks being faced by the Australian economy over the next few months the Board is likely to lower the cash rate by a further 0.25%.”

And, cash rate will hit RBA’s lower bound of 0.25%, “the next policy approach is likely to involve a form of unconventional monetary policy where indications are that the Board favours the approach of setting a rate target further out the yield curve and signalling the commitment to defend that target”.

Full release here.

RBA Governor Guy Debelle said in a speech that because of the coronavirus, the global economy will be “materially weaker” in Q1 and in the period ahead. For Australia, RBA has estimated the impact of education and tourism sectors. These services exports, which account for 5% of GDP, would drop at least -10% in Q1. That translates into -0.5% subtraction of GDP just from these two sources. But that, he added, “it is just too uncertain to assess the impact of the virus beyond the March quarter.”

Debelle also said, the coronavirus is “a shock to both demand and supply”. Monetary policy “does not have an effect” on the supply side. But It can work to “ensure demand is stronger than it otherwise would be”. The government’s intention to support jobs, incomes, small business and investment will “provide welcome support” to the economy. “The combined effect of fiscal and monetary policy will help us navigate a difficult period for the Australian economy.”

Debelle’s full speech here.