Germany unveils EUR 12.4B coronavirus relieve package

    German government announced additional EUR 12.4B in state investment to help companies hit by the coronavirus outbreak. The package agreed by the coalition include liquidity support to companies suffering coronavirus related cash crunch There will be expansions to access to the government subsidized scheme called “Kurzabeit”.

    Olaf Scholz, finance minister, pledged that Germany was prepared “to do everything needed to stabilise the economy and secure jobs”. “We will ensure that there is always enough liquidity available for business”. He added that it’s impossible to say if Germany will slip into recession this year.

    Italian PM Conte promised massive shock therapy to overcome coronavirus impacts

      Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte promised “massive shock therapy” to overcome the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The country announced on Sunday massive lockdown across much of its north, including the financial capital Milan. He told La Repubblica, “we will not stop here. We will use a massive shock therapy. To come out of this emergency we will use all human and economic resources.

      Conte will meet representatives of opposition to discuss new economic measures. the coalition government is also studying various initiatives. Meanwhile, he also called for EU to loosen borrowing limit to allow room for more fiscal measures. He said, “Europe cannot think of confronting an extraordinary situation with ordinary measures.”

      Eurozone Sentix plunged to -17, a new Lehman moment in the making

        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped sharply to -17 in March, down from 5.2, missed expectation of -11. That’s the lowest level since April 2013. Current Situation index dropped from 4.0 to -14.3, lowest since October 2019. Expectations index plunged from 6.5 to -20.0, lowest since August 2012.

        Global Overall index dropped form 8.1 to -12.0, lowest since July 2009. Current Situation index dropped from 10.5 to -8.8, lowest since November 2009. Expectations index dropped from 5.8 to -15.3, lowest since October 2011. Regional readings suggested Eurozone, Germany, Eastern Europe, Japan, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America are all in recession. Swiss, Austria, USA and global are in downturn.

        Sentix said, the coronavirus is “plunging the global economy into recession”. And the data puts the current slump in an “inglorious chain”, Lehman (2008), Fukushima (2011) and the oil credit crisis (2016). It’s also putting pressure on the economy in Eurozone. The set of data “means nothing other than that investors are preparing for a long period of economic weakness.” In addition to ECB’s “wise steps”, “wisdom may require this time that fiscal policy in particular shows itself to be generous”. It warned, if no action is taken, no one should be surprised by a new ‘Lehman’ moment that would increase the chaos.

        Full release here.

        Oil price in worst decline since 90s on price war

          Oil price is having the worst loss since Gulf War in 1991, on fear of price war after OPEC+ talks ended in dramatic failure. It’s reported that Saudi Arabia wanted to slash production to offset the steep decrease in demand due to coronavirus pandemic. But Russia rejected the idea, arguing that cheap crude will help wipe out competition from US shale.

          As the talks collapsed, it’s reported that Saudi Arabia plans to boost output next month to well above 10 million barrels a day, or even to 12 million barrels. That’s seen as an act of a full price war between OPEC and Russia, to force the latter to go back to the negotiation table.

          WTI crude oil hits as low as 27.50 today, breaching 2016 low of 27.69. At this point, we’re not expecting sustainable trading below 27.69 yet, unless the situation worsen dramatically. There is prospect of a rebound should Russia comes back to negotiation. But any rebound attempt will likely be capped below prior resistance at 42.05.

          AUD/JPY slaughtered again in thin panic market, still heading to 60 anyway

            AUD/JPY suffered another wild ride in thin, panic, early Asian session again today. It’s a move that resembles what happened early last year. On January 3, 2013, AUD/JPY hit as low as 70.2 (depending which chart you’re reading), but recovered strongly to close at 76.05. The fate of the cross, however, will likely be different considering the material risks the world is facing.

            From a technical point of view, outlook with remain bearish as long as 71.50 resistance holds. 100% projection of 80.71 to 69.96 from 76.54 at 65.78 will remain the focus after today’s “false break”. Sustained trading below this level will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 59.13.

            That will coincide with 100% projection of 102.83 to 72.39 from 90.29 at 59.85, as well as 60 round number. We’d expect enough support only from there to bring sustainable rebound.

            Asian market plunged as coronavirus spreads quickly in Europe

              Asian markets recorded some wild move today, as global spread of coronavirus accelerated further over the weekend. stocks are in deep red, with, Nikkei down -5.5% currently. Hong Kong HSI is down -3.5%. China Shanghai SSE is down -2.4%. Singapore Strait Times is down -4.2%. Oil price plunges over -25% as additionally pressured by price-war fear. Gold’s reaction is relative limited, struggling to stay above 1700 handle. In the currency markets, Aussie leads Canadian and New Zealand lower. Yen, Euro and Swiss are the safe haven currencies that surge.

              Coronavirus in situation China, the origin of the global outbreak, continues to stabilize, with just 40 new cases and 22 deaths reported for Sunday. Total accumulated cases now stands at 80735, with 3119 deaths. New cases in South Korea also slowed some what, as total stands at 7382 with 53 deaths. Italy (7375 cases, 366 deaths) and Iran (6566 cases, 194 deaths) are quickly catching up and will likely surpass South Korea very soon.

              Situation in Europe is very worrying with 1209 cases in France, 1040 in Germany, 674 in Spain, 332 in Swiss, 278 in UK, 265 in the Netherlands, 203 in Sweden, 200 in Belgium, 176 in Norway, 104 in Austria. US, with 542 case, will be the next point of focus regarding the coronavirus spread.

              Hong Kong HSI gapped through 25995.15 structural support and hit as low as 25025.05 so far. Current down side momentum suggests that 24520.63 (2018 low) will likely be taken out soon to resume whole down trend from 33484.07 (2018 high). Next down side target will be 61.8% projection of 33484.07 to 24540.63 from 29174.92 at 23647.87. But we’d expect further fall, in the medium term, to 100% projection at 20231.48 at least.

              ECB staff to work form home on Monday as precautionary test

                ECB canceled most of its public events over the next month due to coronavirus outbreak in Europe. Also, it told most of its over 3500 staff to work from home on Monday, as a “precautionary” drill in case of shutdown.

                A spokesman said “the ECB has facilities in place for large scale remote working and Monday 9 March will serve as a precautionary test for the infrastructure but also for ECB staff in case such large scale usage of the facilities becomes necessary at some point.

                Still, the scheduled Governing Council meeting would go ahead as scheduled on Thursday.

                Canada employment grew 30.3k, unemployment rated edged up to 5.6%

                  Canada employment grew 30.3k in February, above expectation of 10.5k. Unemployment rose to 5.6%, up from 5.5%, matched expectations. Trade deficit widened to CAD -1.47B in January, versus expectation of CAD -0.83B.

                  US non-farm payroll grew 273k, wage growth matched expectations

                    US non-farm payrolls rose 273k in February, well above expectation of 178k. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, down from 3.6%, as it continues to gyrate between 3.5-3.6% for the past six months. Participation rate remained unchanged at 63.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Also from the US, trade deficit narrowed to USD -45.3B in January versus expectation of USD -48.8B.

                    Dollar breaks key support as markets corner Fed into another 75bps rate cut

                      Dollar dives across the board as investors seem to be trying to corner Fed into another deep rate cut at March 18 meeting, or even before it. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 80.4% chance of -75bps cut to 0.25-0.50%. 10-year yield hits as low as 0.699 in European session and is currently trading at 0.774, down -0.141. 30-year yield hits as low as 1.274, currently at 1.362, down -0.183. Both are new record lows.

                      EUR/USD finally takes out 1.1239 resistance decisively, confirming medium term bottoming at 1.0777. At this point, we’re seeing rise from there as a corrective move. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0777 at 1.1456 next. Reaction there will reveal the chance of medium term bullish reversal.

                      EU Hogan hopeful of a mini trade deal with US in coming weeks

                        EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said there were still difficult issues to overcome in trade negotiations with US. And, “there is a long list (of issues) on both sides that have been outstanding for many, many years. There is no scientific basis for any of these impediments.”

                        He pointed out, “clearly there are regulations in respect of food safety and those issues, pathogen treatments, that we will not be in a position to change. Equally we are not asking Congress to change their regulations in some of the asks we are making of the United States.”

                        Though, he’s still hopeful of reaching a mini trade deal with the US in the coming weeks. EU is still aiming to see industrial tariffs reduction as an outcome.

                        German factory orders rose 5.5%, strongest since 2014

                          Germany factory orders rose 5.5% mom in January well above expectation of 1.5% mom. It’s also the biggest monthly rise since July 2014. However, over the year, factory orders dropped -1.4% mom.

                          Looking at some details, domestic orders rose 1.3% mom while foreign orders rose 10.5% mom. New orders from Eurozone were up 15.1% mom. New orders from other countries rose 7.8% mom.

                          Full release here.

                           

                          Markets see 100% chance of another 50bps Fed cut this month, Dollar index eyeing 96.35 key support

                            Dollar’s decline against Euro and Yen are extending as markets increased bets on another deep interest rate cut by Fed on March 18. According to fed fund futures, there is now 100% chance of -50bps cut in federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75%, with 16.1% chance of even a -75bps cut to 0.25-0.50%.

                            Dollar index is now eyeing 96.35 key support. Decisive break there will confirm medium term topping at 99.91. In that case, we’d view fall from 99.91 as correcting the up trend from 88.25. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 38.2% retracement of 88.25 to 99.91 at 95.45, with prospect of hitting as low as 61.8% retracement at 92.70.

                            Global coronavirus cases hit over 98000

                              Global spread of China’s Wuhan coronavirus continues to accelerate as it’s now affecting 90% countries and territories. Total infections reached 98424, with 3386 deaths. China’s increase in cases continue stabilize at low level, with 143 new cases yesterday to accumulated total of 80552. 30 new deaths were reported, bringing total to 3042.

                              South Korea remains the most affected country with 6284 cases and 40 deaths. Italy’s cases surged to 3858, with 148 deaths. Iran reported a total of 3513 cases with 108 deaths. Other countries are also catching up, including Germany (545 cases), France (423 cases, 7 deaths), Japan (364 cases, 6 deaths), Spain (282 cases, 3 deaths), USA (226 cases, 13 deaths), Switzerland (120 cases, 1 death), Singapore (117 cases), UK (116 cases, 1 death) and Hong Kong (105 cases). Sweden (94 cases), Norway (91 cases), (Netherlands 82 cases), will break 100 level soon.

                              WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged the world to pull out “all the stops” top slow the spread of the coronavirus. He said, “This is not a drill. This is not the time for giving up. This is not a time for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops.” “Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans.” There is a global online petition calling for resignation of Tedros for breaking WHO’s political neutrality. More than 440k people have signed.

                              ADB: World to lose 0.4% GDP in worse case scenario of coronavirus

                                The Asian Development Bank warned that ongoing coronavirus outbreak will have a “significant impact on developing Asian economies”, through numerous channels, including “harp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects”.

                                “There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope this analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of this outbreak.”

                                In the “worse case” scenario, the world will lose USD 347B or -0.4% of GDP. China will lose USD 237B, or -1.7%B. Developing Asian excluding China will lose USD 42B or -0.5%.

                                Full release here.

                                BoC Poloz: Canada’s resilience could be seriously tested by COVID-19

                                  BoC Governor Stephen Poloz warned in a speech yesterday that the economy’s “resilience” could be “seriously tested by COVID-19”, depending on the “severity and duration of its effects”. Global economy will, “at the very least, be significantly disrupted” by the coronavirus in H1. Consumer and business confidence “could be set back for a longer period of time”, causing growth to “slow more persistently”.

                                  He added that monetary policy can contribute in the current situation by “buffering their effects on consumer and business confidence, thereby helping the economy bridge the situation.” And, “this contribution can be especially powerful when the shock is global and the response is coordinated.” BoC lowered interest rate by -50bps on Wednesday, following the same move by Fed on Tuesday.

                                  Poloz also reiterated that “Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required”. And, “we continue to closely monitor economic and financial conditions, in close coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.”

                                  Fed Williams: Coronavirus poses evolving risks to the economy

                                    New York Fed President John Williams said the outbreak and subsequent spread of the coronavirus “has brought with it new risks to the economic outlook”. “Repercussions” have been “especially strong” in hardest-hit countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran. In the US, there were also reports of “supply disruptions and weakening demand” and concerns around tourism and travel sectors, in particular.

                                    Fed’s -50bps rate cut this week was “strong policy action” that provides “meaningful support to the economy and will help sustain the economic expansion. But “the outlook is evolving and highly uncertain”. He added, “in the weeks and months ahead, we will continue to closely monitor developments and their implications for the economic outlook.”

                                    He also noted Fed is monitoring conditions in the money markets closely. “We remain flexible and ready to make adjustments to our operations as needed to ensure that monetary policy is effectively implemented and transmitted to financial markets and the broader economy.”

                                    Fed Kaplan: It’s wise to act boldly on coronavirus epidemic

                                      Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan hailed Fed’s emergency rate cut this week to counter the impact of coronavirus epidemic. He told Chicago Council on Global Affairs “it’s wise to act sooner, more boldly, and it increases the likelihood that we’ll need to use less policy ammunition” later on.

                                      Separately, he told Bloomberg, “a week is an eternity”, regarding what Fed would do in the upcoming March meeting. “I am going to be watching very, very carefully the path of diagnosed cases,” Kaplan said. “We’re just going to have to see what the actual developments are over the next 10 days, two weeks. That will be a key factor, yes, I will be using to judge what’s appropriate and whether we can wait longer.”

                                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said it was “prudent” for Fed’s -50bps rate cut. He added, “this was insurance that we took out because nobody knows how bad the virus is going to be. If everybody pulls back at the same time, that in itself can lead to a recession,” he added.

                                      Serious divergences between EU and UK for post Brexit relationships

                                        EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that there are “serious divergences” with the UK, after ending the first week of negotiations on post Brexit relationship. The talks were held in a “constructive spirit” but in a “demanding context”.

                                        In particular, he pointed four areas that are at odds, including competition policy, cooperation in criminal justice matters, control of U.K. fishing waters, and on the way any deal would be structured.

                                        Nevertheless, Barnier remained hopeful as “there are many serious divergences, an agreement is possible — even if difficult.”

                                        US initial jobless claims dropped to 216k, matched expectations

                                          US initial jobless claims dropped -3k to 216k in the week ending February 29, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3.25k to 213k.

                                          Continuing claims rose 7k to 1.729m in the week ending February 22. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped-7.5k to 1.721m.

                                          Full release here.