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EU to made final decision on Brexit extension on Monday or Tuesday

    By
    ActionForex
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    After a two-hour meeting with EU27 ambassadors in Brussels, EU chief Brexit negotiator said “no decision” was made regarding Brexit extension yet, despite the “excellent” discussion. It’s widely reported, and generally believed, that EU is in full agreement on the need for an extension. Work will continue over the weekend take make the decision by written procedure. But the duration for the extension is undecided, waiting for results on a vote on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s push for Christmas election. The finally decision could be made on Monday or Tuesday.

    Chancellor Sajid Javid told BBC Radio today that “The opposition have said, week after week, that if there is a delay of three months, which is what they requested through parliament, then they will vote for a general election, so let’s see if they keep their word. And if they don’t then we will keep bringing back to parliament a motion to have an election. And we will keep doing that again and again.”

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told ITV that Johnson needed to come to parliament on Monday and rule out a no-deal Brexit. He also criticized the December 12 election date as being “odd for many reasons – it’s so near Christmas, it’s after universities finish their terms”.

    Forecasters downgrade Eurozone inflation and growth projections in ECB survey

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      In the Q4 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Eurozone inflation expectations were revised down on average across all horizons. Real GDP growth expectations was also revised down, particularly for 2020. Meanwhile, unemployment rate expectations were also revised up.

      • HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.2% in 2019 (vs Q3 projection of 1.3%), 1.2% in 2020 (vs 1.4%) and 1.4% in 2021 (vs 1.5%).
      • Core HICP is projected to be at 1.1% in 2019 (vs 1.1%) 1.2% in 2020 (vs 1.3%), and 1.4% in 2021 (vs 1.5%).
      • Real GDP growth is projected to be at 1.1% in 2019 (vs 1.2%), 1.0% in 2020 (vs 1.3%) and 1.3% in 2021 (vs 1.4%).
      • Unemployment rate is projected to be at 7.6% in 2019 (vs 7.6%), 7.5% in 2020 (vs 7.4%) and 7.4% in 2021 (vs 7.3%.

      Full report here.

      German Ifo business climate unchnaged at 94.6, downward trend in manufacturing stopped

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        German Ifo Business Climate was unchanged at 94.6 in October, slightly above expectation of 94.5. Current Assessment index dropped to 97.8, down from 98.6 and missed expectation of 98.0. Expectations index rose to 91.5, up from 90.9, and beat expectation of 91.0. Ifo also noted that “the German economy is stabilizing”.

        Also, in manufacturing “a stop has been put to the downward trend for now”, with the index improved from -6.4 to -5.5. Trade also improved from -3.7 to -3.3, ” thanks to considerably higher expectations in wholesale”. Services was relatively unchanged, down form 16.7 to 16.6. Construction dropped from 22.1 to 21.3.

        Full release here.

        Germany Gfk consumer sentiment dropped to 9.6, economic expectation dropped to near seven year low

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for November dropped to 9.6, down from 9.8, missed expectation of 9.8. Gfk noted that besides known risk factors such as the global economic downturn, trade conflicts and Brexit chaos, there are increasing reports of job losses, such as in the automotive industry and on the financial markets, for example. These events have dampened the mood of consumers again and optimism is dwindling

          In particular, economic expectation indicator continued its down trend dropped -4.8 pts to -13.8. That’s the lowest level in nearly seven years since December 2012. “According to consumer estimates, the risk that Germany could slide into a recession has increased again recently. Combined with the trade conflict, the global cooling off of the economy, which will especially impact the strongly export-oriented German economy, will not leave the German economy unscathed. Consequently, several automobile manufacturers as well as their suppliers have already announced redundancies. This loss of jobs at car manufacturers will be further intensified in future by the forthcoming transition to electro-mobility. Owing to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) low-interest-rate policy, banks are experiencing increasing difficulties.  As the example of Deutsche Bank shows, they are reacting with branch closures and redundancies.”

          Full release here.

          China said to seek some tariffs removals in exchange for farm purchases

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will speak with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He today by phone. Two sides are believed to be working on the text for Phase One of US-China trade agreement, for signing at the APEC summit in Chile on November 16-17.

            It’s reported that China will ask US to drop the plan to impose tariffs on USD 156B of Chinese goods on December 15. Additionally, Beijing could ask US to remove the tranche of tariffs imposed on September 1, on USD 125B of Chinese imports, too. That is, China is seeking to get back to tariffs on just the original USD 250B in goods.

            In exchange China would buy at least USD 20B of American farm products in the first year, as part of the phase one deal. That would bring purchases back to the level in 2017, before trade war began. In the second year of a final deal, purchases could rise further to USD 40B-50B, when all punitive tariffs are removed.

            EU weighing Brexit flextension while Johnson calls election

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              EU27 is said to debate today the drafted text granting UK another Brexit delay . The purpose of the extension is “allowing for the finalization of the ratification” of the withdrawal agreement. There is no consensus on the date yet as some leaders prefer to idea of so called “flextension”. Meanwhile, some leaders might want to see the result of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s early election motion first.

              Johnson called for an early election on December 12 yesterday and the Commons is due to vote on that on Monday. He said in a letter to opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn that prolonging the Brexit “paralysis” into 2020 would have “dangerous consequences for businesses, jobs and for basic confidence in democratic institutions, already badly damaged by the behavior of parliament since the referendum”. Corbyn, on the other hand, repeated that “the principle is take ‘no deal’ off the table, the EU answers tomorrow, then we can decide.”

              US PMI composite rose to 51.2, points to 1.5% annualized GDP growth in Q4

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                US Markit PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.5 in October, up from 51.1, and beat expectation of 50.5. PMI Services rose to 51.0, up from 50.9, matched expectations. PMI Composite also improved to 51.2, up from 51.0.

                Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                “Despite business activity lifting from recent lows, the survey data point to annualized GDP growth of just under 1.5% at the start of the fourth quarter, and a near-stalling of new order growth to the lowest for a decade suggests that risks are tilted toward growth remaining below trend in coming months.

                “An increased rate of job culling adds to the gloomy picture, with jobs being lost among surveyed companies at a rate not seen since 2009. At current levels, the survey’s employment gauge indicates non-farm payroll growth slipping below 100,000.

                “The overall subdued picture reflects a spreading of economic weakness from manufacturing to services, but encouragingly we are now seeing some signs of manufacturing pulling out of its downturn, in part driven by a return to growth for exports and improved sentiment about the year ahead, linked to hopes that trade war tensions are starting to ease.

                “If manufacturing can continue to gain momentum this should hopefully feed through to stronger jobs growth and an improved service sector performance, leading to better GDP growth, but it remains too early to determine whether the economy has truly turned a corner.”

                Full release here.

                ECB Draghi’s press conference live stream

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Introductory statement.

                  US durable goods orders dropped -1.1%, ex-transport orders dropped -0.3%

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    US durable goods orders dropped -1.1% in September to USD 248.2B, well below expectation of -0.5%. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.3%, versus expectation of -0.2%. Ex-defense orders dropped -1.2%.

                    Full release here.

                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 212k, below expectation of 216k

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      US initial jobless claims dropped -6k to 212k in the week ending October 19, below expectation of 216k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -0.75k to 215k. Continuing claims dropped -1k to 1.682m in the week ending October 12. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6.5k to 1.677m.

                      Full release here.

                      Navarro: US-China trade deal ph 1 adopts the entire IP chapter in May’s deal

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        White House economic adviser Peter Navarro told Fox Business Network that the “good news” about US-China trade deal phase one is that “it adopted virtually the entire chapter in the deal last May that they reneged on for IP”. Hence, “practically it means, if they steal our IP we’ll be able to take retaliatory action without them retaliating.”

                        Separately, it’s reported that China aims to buy at least USD 20B of American farm products in the first year, as part of the phase one deal. That would bring purchases back to the level in 2017, before trade war began. In the second year of a final deal, purchases could rise further to USD 40B-50B, when all punitive tariffs are removed.

                        ECB keeps policy unchanged, full statement

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          ECB left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Main refinancing rate is held at 0.00%. Marginally lending and deposit rates are held at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.

                          Forward guidance was unchanged that key ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels “until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

                          Full statement below.

                          Monetary Policy Decisions

                          At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

                          As decided at the last Governing Council meeting in September, net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

                          The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

                          The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

                          Eurozone PMI composite at 50.2, points to just 0.1% growth in Q4

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7 in October, below expectation of 46.0. PMI Services rose slightly to 51.8, up from 51.6, but missed expectation of 51.9. PMI Composite rose to 50.2, up from 50.1.

                            Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                            “The eurozone economy started the fourth quarter mired close to stagnation, with the flash PMI pointing to a quarterly GDP growth rate of just under 0.1%.

                            “The manufacturing downturn remains the fiercest since 2012, and continues to infect the service sector, where October saw the smallest increase in new work for almost five years.

                            “The labour market is meanwhile being hit as firms retrench amid signs of excess capacity and uncertainty about the year ahead intensifies. Optimism about future prospects deteriorated further in October to the lowest for over six years, commonly linked to global trade tensions, Brexitrelated worries and increasingly gloomy economic forecasts.

                            “A further deterioration in jobs growth adds to the risk that the trade-led weakening is spreading further to the household sector, which could dampen growth further as we head towards the end of the year.

                            “The survey indicates that Mario Draghi’s tenure at the helm of the ECB ends on a note of near-stalled GDP, slower jobs growth, near-stagnant prices and growing pessimism about the outlook, piling pressure on Christine Lagarde to drive new solutions to the eurozone’s renewed malaise.”

                            Full release here.

                            German PMI manufacturing improved slightly from 10-year low, increasing strains on domestic economy

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Germany PMI Manufacturing rose to 41.9 in October, up from 41.7, and missed expectation of 42.0. That was just a marginal improvement from September’s 10-year low. PMI Services dropped to 51.2, down from 51.4, missed expectation of 51.7. That’s also the worst reading in 37 months. PMI Composite rose to 48.6, little change from seven-year low of 48.5 in September.

                              Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

                              “Hopes of a return to growth in Germany in the final quarter have been somewhat dashed by the October flash PMI numbers, which show business activity in the eurozone’s largest economy contracting further and underlying demand continuing to soften.

                              “Manufacturing remains the main weak link, though here there are some signs of encouragement with rates of decline in production and new orders easing and business confidence improving to a four-month high.

                              “Perhaps most concerning are the signs of increasing strain on the domestic economy, with growth of service sector activity slowing to the weakest since September 2016 and employment now in decline for the first time in six years.”

                              Full release here.

                              France PMI composite rose to 52.6, manufacturing still lags

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                France PMI Manufacturing rose to 50.5 in October, up from 50.1 and beat expectation of 50.3. PMI Services also rose to 52.9, up from 51.1, and beat expectation of 51.8. PMI Composite rose notably to 52.6, up from 50.8.

                                Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                “Following a slowdown in activity growth during September, the private sector rebounded at the start of the start of the fourth quarter. A recovery in manufacturing output coupled with faster growth in services saw total activity rise solidly.

                                “That said, the rate of expansion in manufacturing continued to notably lag behind that registered in the service sector, extending the trend seen throughout the majority of 2019 so far.

                                “Nonetheless, the data are consistent with the continuation of solid gains in both official economic output and employment heading into the end of the year.”

                                Full release here.

                                Euro mildly softer ahead of Draghi’s last ECB meeting

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Euro follows other European majors and is trading generally lower this wee. Focus turns to Mario Draghi’s last monetary policy meeting as ECB President today. After the stimulus package announced last month, no new measure is expected this time. Instead, Draghi could make use of the opportunity to defend the latest policy changes. In particular, the minutes for the September meeting revealed that the members were divided over QE resumption. This not only would be the focus in the Q&A session, but also a legacy left to the incoming president, Christina Lagarde.

                                  Some suggested previews:

                                  Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 48.5, lowest since June 2016

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.5 in October, down from 48.9 and missed expectation of 49.2. That’s the sixth successive sub-50 reading, and lowest since June 2016. PMI Services dropped to 50.3, down from 52.8. PMI Composite dropped to 49.8, down from 51.5.

                                    Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit said: “Japan’s economy hit a widely-expected bump in October following the consumption tax increase which took effect during the month. However, the impact has been somewhat obscured by the typhoon, which panelists, particularly in the service sector, were disrupted by…. Overall it seems that temporary domestic factors have been the primary cause of reduced output at the start of the fourth quarter, suggesting there is potential for some pay-back in November.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Australia PMI composite dropped to 50.7, subdued start of Q4

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Australian CBA PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.1 in October, down from 50.3. CBA PMI services dropped sharply from 52.4 to 50.8. PMI composite dropped from 52.0 to 50.7. The reading suggested subdued business conditions at the start of Q4. Output rose at a softer pace amid the weakest new order growth since April. Business confidence also softened and firms raised their staffing levels only marginally. Meanwhile, input costs continued to increase at a marked pace, leading firms to raise their own selling prices to the greatest extent since last November in a bid to protect profit margins.

                                      CBA Chief Economist, Michael Blythe said: “The trade war and other uncertainties mean businesses are deferring capex and consumers are putting off spending. The resulting drop in production has pulled global manufacturing PMIs lower, taking services PMIs along for the ride. Australian manufacturing and service firms are not immune to these global trends. The ongoing weakness in the flash PMI readings for October should be judged against this global backdrop. Australia is faring a little better than the global trend. PMI readings remain in expansion territory, albeit just. Employment is still growing and longer-run expectations are still positive”.

                                      Full release here.

                                      No EU decision on Brexit extension until Friday

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        EU27 is said to be generally supportive to giving UK another Brexit extensions. But there are some minor differences on the duration. A final decision might not be made until Friday. The question is on whether to follow European Council President Donald Tusk’s recommendation of a three-month delay through a “written procedure”. Or, leaders would likely to France’s idea of a shorter extension, possibly to November 15 only.

                                        In UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed to agree on a timetable for the Brexit bill with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Johnson could opt for a general election if the parliament is seen as unwilling to vote for the Brexit deal. But it’s reported that his own Conservative party is 50/50 split on the idea of election. Meanwhile, Corbyn is also said to be facing significant pressure from Labour to resist any call for an imminent election.

                                        US crude oil inventories dropped -1.7m barrels, WTI breaches 55

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped -1.7m barrels in the week ending October 18, versus expectation of 2.5m barrels increase. At 433.m barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

                                          WTI crude oil’s recovery from 50.86 extends higher after the realize. The support from 4 hour 55 EMA is a bullish sign. But structure of the price actions from 50.86 remains corrective look. Hence, it’s still seen as in a corrective face for now. That is, another fall could be seen to test 50 psychological level before bottoming. Meanwhile, break of 54.71 will indicate near term reversal and target 63.04 resistance.

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