Johnson and Corbyn couldn’t agree on timetable for Brexit bill

    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn today. But they failed to agree on a timetable to press ahead with the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

    Labour spokesperson said “Jeremy Corbyn reiterated Labour’s offer to the prime minister to agree a reasonable timetable to debate, scrutinise and amend the withdrawal agreement bill, and restated that Labour will support a general election when the threat of a no-deal crash-out is off the table.”

    Afterwards in the PMQs, Johnson accused Labour of seeking to scupper Brexit. Corbyn called for “the necessary time to improve on this worse-than-terrible treaty”.

    EU said to move quickly to approve uncontroversial Brexit extension

      It’s reported that EU27 leaders would move quickly to approve request for another Brexit extension. It’s noted that it’s the first time UK has not rejected a Brexit deal. And there was agreement among MPs that there is not enough time to complete the whole legislation process before the October 31 deadline. thus, the principle for the extension is “completely uncontroversial”.

      Germany’s government spokesman Steffen Seibert also said that ” I can say on behalf of the federal government that Germany will not stand in the way of an extension.” UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson still seemed to disagree on the delay, European Council President Donald Tusk talked to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on phone and explained why he recommended EU 27 leaders to accept UK’s request for another Brexit extension.

      Italy Gualtieri: Debt reduction has to be gradual and sustainable to be credible

        Italian Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said today that the European Commission for was challenging the country’s draft budget. Instead it’s only asking for clarifications on the path of debt reduction.

        He also emphasized “Italy has made use in the past of ‘flexibility’ on public finances because public debt must be lowered but the reduction can only be gradual and sustainable to be credible.”

        New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -1.24B

          New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -1.24B in September, down from NZD -1.63B, slightly better than expectation of NZD -1.38B. Exports rose 5.1% mom to NZD 4.47B. Imports dropped -2.1% mom to NZD 5.71B. For September quarter, exports dropped -0.9% qoq to NZD 14.8B. Imports rose 3.4% qoq to NZD 16.4B. Quarterly trade balance was a deficit of NZD 1.6B.

          Full release here.

          Separately, RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said he’s “very” happy with the way in which interest rate cuts are feeding through into the economy. Additionally, he added that rising house prices could boost consumption and ultimately inflation..

          US Ross: Far better than 50-50 chance for signable trade deal with China next month

            On trade talks with China, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said there is “far better than 50/50” chance that the trade agreement is “signable on or about the time of the Chile conference”, referring the APEC summit on November 16-17. Though, “you never know with paperwork, you can always run into a glitch at the last minute. Also, he said China was “following through in good faith on the promises that they made” earlier this month to press ahead with big purchases of US farm products.

            Ross also indicated new trade negotiations with EU could be an alternative to auto tariffs. He said, “one would be to say, ‘I’m just not going to do anything’, the second would be to impose tariffs on some or all . . . the third might be some other form of negotiation.” Ross added that President Donald Trump has “quite a lot of alternatives as to what he can decide to do, and I don’t think we should prejudge what the conclusion will be”.

            So far, Trump’s administration has hesitated to start auto tariffs, and turned to trade negotiations instead. A six-month reprieve was offered back in May which pushed the deadline for decision in mid-November. And so far, Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Japan have each struck deals with the US already. EU will be the most relevant should auto tariffs come into effect.

            Johnson’s Brexit deal approved by Commons in principle, timetable rejected

              UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson got the backing from Commons on his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill in principle (second reading), with 329 to 299 votes. However, more MPs were against the ultra tight timetable to complete the legislative process. They believed that more time is needed to scrutinize the details, than just three days of debate. The schedule for the bill was voted down by 322 to 308 votes.

              Another Brexit delay beyond October 31 looks inevitably needed. But Johnson refused to commit to that yet. He said after the votes “let me be clear: our policy remains that we should not delay, that we should leave the EU on Oct. 31 and that is what I will say to the EU and I will report back to the House”.

              Hours later, European Council President Donald Tusk tweeted that he will recommend the EU27 to accept UK request for extension. And he will propose a written procedure, i.e., without another emergency summit.

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              Sterling weakens slightly after the news. GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.3012 might extend lower. But there is no indication of reversal yet.

              UK Johnson urges parliament ot vote for the Brexit deal to turn the page

                The UK parliament is due to vote on, finally, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill today. Ahead of that, Johnson told the parliament that “if we pass this deal and the legislation that enables it we can turn the page and allow this parliament and this country to begin to heal and unite”. Additionally, if the bill is approved, the government would de-escalate no-deal Brexit preparations.

                Additionally, the tight time table for the bill will also be voted on. Johnson’s spokesman said earlier that “Voting down a program motion has serious implications. It means legislation can drift on and on … Voting down the program motion risks handing control over the situation to the European Union and therefore making no deal more likely.”

                China said to offer 10m tonnes of tariff-free quota for US soybean imports

                  Reuters reported that China offered 10m tonnes of tariff-free quota for US soybean imports today. The quota is allocated to major Chinese and international soybean crushers at meeting called by the state planner.

                  This is seen as follow up actions, in-line with US President Donald Trump’s claim that China agreed to by USD 50B in farm products annually, after trade talks earlier this month. However, after that China has indeed bought at least 480k tones of Brazilian soybeans.

                  Canada retail sales dropped -0.1%, ex-auto sales dropped -0.2%

                    Canada retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in August to CAD 51.5B, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.2% mom, above expectation of -0.3% mom. Sales were down in six sectors, representing 51% of total retail trade.

                    Retail sales in Ontario dipped -0.8%. In Manitoba (-1.6%) retail sales were down for the first time in three months. Sales rebounded in British Columbia (+0.8%) and New Brunswick (+3.8%).

                    Full release here.

                    Tusk: EU to decide on Brexit extension in the coming days

                      European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker complained that “in truth it has pained me to spend so much of this mandate dealing with Brexit when I have thought of nothing less than how this union could better do for its citizens – waste of time and waste of energy,”

                      He added, “we need now to watch events in Westminster very closely, but it’s not possible, not imaginable that this parliament would ratify the agreement before Westminster has ratified the agreement. First London, then Brussels and Strasbourg”.

                      European Council President Donald Tusk said today that he was already discussion UK’s Brexit extension request with E27 leaders. And decision would be made “in the coming days”. He added that “a no-deal Brexit will never be our decision.”

                      China said it won’t decouple from the development of international industries

                        China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) spokesman said “we will look at the trade friction between China and the United States with an open mind and a big heart.” And, “we will not blindly emphasize ‘self-reliance’, and not decouple from the development of international industries.”

                        Separately, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said that “as long as we respect each other and seek equal cooperation, there are no disagreements that cannot be resolved between China and the United States.” He also emphasized, “What China wants is to deliver a better life for the Chinese people. We don’t want to take anything from anyone else. There’s no such thing as China replacing anyone or threatening anyone.”

                        UK Commons to hold second reading vote on Brexit bill

                          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will come back to the Commons on Tuesday, after twice being denied a vote. A vote on Second Reading, the general principle of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, is expected to be held at around 1900GMT. After that, a vote on Program Motion will be held shortly after, for the timetable for the bill’s passage.

                          The first vote would be the real moment of truth for Johnson. If he’s defeated there, the bill is dead. Though, it’s currently generally believed that Johnson would get a very narrow win. The second vote is about the timing of Brexit. The government is trying to push through a Third reading this Thursday, so as to meet the Oct 31 Brexit deadline. It’s highly doubtful if MPs would support this accelerated schedule. If not, another Brexit delay is inevitable.

                          CAD Edges higher as Trudeau’s Liberal projected to win election with minority

                            Canadian Dollar strengthens mildly as polls suggest that Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is on track to a narrow win over Conservatives in federal elections. CBC News projects that the Liberals would take over 140 seats and less than 120 for Conservatives. Though, as 170 seats are needed to take majority in the 33-8 House of Commons, Trudeau’s minority government will need to seek support from left-leaning opposition parties.

                            CAD/JPY edges higher today and it’s now eyeing 83.23 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the corrective pull back from 85.23 at 78.50. Rebound from 76.61 low should then be ready to resume through 85.23 resistance.

                            Trump: China has started farm purchases, trade deal coming along very well

                              US President Donald Trump said yesterday that China has “started the buying” of US farm products” and he added “I want more”. Also, he repeated the usual rhetorics that “The deal with China’s coming along very well. They want to make a deal… They sort of have to make a deal … because their supply chain is going down the tubes.”

                              Meanwhile, US Trade Representatives Robert Lighthizer indicated the administration is still aiming to finalize the first phase of US-China trade deal for signing at the APEC meeting in Chile on November 16-17. However, there are still outstanding issues to resolve. Deputy-level meetings took place yesterday. Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to talk to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday.

                              UK Commons speaker Bercow disallows another Brexit vote today

                                UK House of Commons Speaker John Bercow ruled that vote on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal cannot take place today. Bercow cited a parliamentary rule dating back to 1604 under which the government cannot repeatedly ask Parliament to vote on the exact same motion.

                                He said, “it is clear that the motions are in substance the same. My ruling is therefore that the motion will not be debated today as it would be repetitive and disorderly to do so.”

                                US Ross: Trade deal with China doesn’t have to be in November

                                  US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross emphasized that the US-China trade deal “has to be the right deal”, and “it doesn’t have to be in November”, referring to the APEC summit in Chile. He emphasized that “it’s more critical that it be a proper deal that exactly when it occurs.”

                                  Additionally, Ross said “The key think is to get everything right that we do sign. That’s the important element. That’s what the president is wedded to. Whether it’s this day or that day might be interesting to the media, but it isn’t the real game.”

                                  UK Johnson to push “yes or no” meaningful vote on Brexit deal

                                    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing for a “yes or no” meaningful vote on his Brexit deal today. His spokesman said “The meaningful vote will go ahead if the speaker allows it and if no amendments are selected which would render the vote pointless. There is not point having a meaningless vote, the government would pull the motion”.

                                    He added: “The public want Brexit done. The government is determined to pass the PM’s great new deal and get us out of the EU on Oct. 31 … The deal with the EU has just been agreed, it is done, it is closed”. “The negotiations with the EU have already gone on far too long. The prime minister has achieved what is a very good deal and he is focused on getting that deal through parliament.”

                                    Bundesbank: Few signs of sustainably recovery in exports and stabilization of industry

                                      In its monthly report, Germany’s Bundesbank said “Germany’s economic output could have shrunk again slightly in the third quarter of 2019”. And, “the decisive factor here is the continued downturn in the export-oriented industry.”

                                      Bundesbank doesn’t expect an outright recession. It still warned, “early indicators currently provide few signs of a sustainable recovery in exports and a stabilization of the industry.” “This raises the risk that the slowdown extends to a greater extent to more domestically oriented sectors.”

                                      AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY rise on strength in treasury yields

                                        Yen is generally under pressure today and sentiments improved on Brexit optimism. While the reactions in the stock markets are relatively mild, recent rally in treasury yields are impressive. German 10-year yield is currently up 0.032 at -0.347, comparing to -0.739 low made back in September. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.015 at -0.135, comparing to -0.284 low made back in September too.

                                        AUD/JPY breaks 74.49 resistance today, resuming whole rebound from 69.95. Such rise should extend higher as long as 73.95 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 69.95 to 74.49 from 71.73 at 76.27.

                                        NZD/JPY is lagging behind slightly. But further rise is expected as long as 69.00 minor support holds. Break of 69.68 resistance will resume the rebound from 66.31. Next target is 100% projection of 66.31 to 69.68 from 66.93 at 70.30.

                                        Sterling jumps as Johnson said to have enough vote for Brexit deal

                                          Sterling rises again today, apparently on renewed optimism over orderly Brexit. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to push his Brexit deal to a vote in the Commons today. Speaker John Bercow might decide to disallow and unamended bill without extension. Yet, the government could still reintroduce the bill with article 50 extension. But after all, the votes that Johnson could set is what matters most.

                                          According to Guardian’s analysis, 320 MPs could vote for the deal, versus 317 again. Johnson appears to have secured support from all of his 287 MPs. He is said to have support from 20 former MPs too, plus 5 independents and 8 Labour rebels. ERG chair Steve baker also indicated that “The advice I gave to my Eurosceptic colleagues is we should, number one, back the deal,” he said. “Number two, vote for the legislation all the way through unless, it has to be said, it was wrecked by opponents, in which case we would have to take a view.