Mid-US update: Sterling strong on Brexit optimism, Swiss Franc weakest

    Sterling surges broadly today as lifted by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier again. He said in a forum in Slovenia that a Brexit deal within 6-8 weeks if both sides are realistic their demand. Also, it’s reported that EU will announce next week to hold a special summit for Brexit in November, possibly on Nov 13. Euro follows Sterling as the second strongest due to easing worries over Italy’s budget. Swiss Franc is the worst performing one for the same reason as Euro. Yen and Dollar follow as the second and third weakest because of receding risk aversion. And, there is no news regarding trade war yet.

    European stocks closed generally higher today but it should be noted that major indices pared back much of earlier gains. FTSE hit as high as 7307.85 but closed at 7279.30, up only 0.02%. DAX hit as high as 12039.22 but closed at 11986.34, up 0.22%. CAC hit as high as 5291.21 but closed at 5269.63, up 0.33%. Gold strengthens mildly as Dollar weakens. But it’s staying in consolidation from 1214.

    US update: Dollar marches on, US stocks indecisive despite global rally

      US stocks opened higher today but quickly turn mixed. Despite positive words from White House senior counselor Kellyanne Conway, investors see the result of US-China trade talk as highly uncertain. Also, sentiments could be weighed down by a report that Apple’s iphone shipment to China dived -20% in Q4.

      At the time of writing:

      • DOW is down -0.13%
      • S&P 500 is up 0.07%.
      • NASDAQ is up 0.20%
      • US 10-year yield is up 0.22 at 2.654.

      In Europe:

      • FTSE rose 0.87%.
      • DAX rose 1.03%.
      • CAC rose 1.09%.
      • German 10-year yield is up 0.032 at 0.121.

      In the forex markets, Dollar is the strongest one for today and the strength is rather convincing. USD/CHF and USD/JPY resumed recent rise by taking out 1.0028 and 110.16 resistances earlier today. EUR/USD’s break of 1.1289 support also argues that recent consolidation from 1.1215 low has completed. Focus will be on whether 1.2854 support in GBP/USD, 0.7060 support in AUD/USD and 1.3329 resistance in USD/CAD would be taken out before the end of the US session.

      Meanwhile, Sterling is the weakest one after poor data today. UK GDP grew only 0.2% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.3% qoq. In December, GDP contracted -0.4% mom , much worse than expectation of 0.0% mom. Industrial and manufacturing production also missed expectations. Yen and Swiss Franc are next weakest, mainly because of rebound in Asian and European stock markets.

      GBP/USD is the top mover for today so far, but USD/JPY is not that far away. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 1.2391 has completed at 1.3217 already. Break of 1.2854 will affirm this bearish case and pave the way to retest 1.2391 low.

      Germany PMIs: Manufacturing and services on very different paths

        Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 47.6 in February, down from 49.7 and missed expectation of 49.9. That’ the lowest level in 74 months. PMI services, however, rose to 55.1, up from 53.0 and beat expectation of 52.9. PMI composite improved slightly to 52.7, up from 52.1.

        Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

        “Germany’s manufacturing and service sectors remain on very different paths, according to February’s flash PMI data. While strong fundamentals in the domestic market are driving growth in services business activity, falling exports continue to weigh on the performance of the manufacturing sector. Measured overall, the data remain indicative of a very modest rate of underlying output growth.

        “The manufacturing PMI fell further into contractionary territory in February to its lowest in over six years, with sustained robust job creation at factories the only positive takeaway. The strength in employment is perhaps surprising given the order book situation and lack of pressures on capacity, but goods producers are seemingly looking through the current soft patch in demand.

        “In terms of the factors behind the slowdown in manufacturing order books, many of the usual suspects – the uncertainty relating to US-China trade tensions and weakness in the autos industry – were highlighted, although there were also reports of growing competitive pressures within Europe.”

        Full release here.

        Fed Barkin: Rate cut for mid-cycle reduction for insurance

          Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said in a speech that the “national economy appears great”. Unemployment rate is at 50-year lows and GDP growth is solid. Consumers also “feel confident and are spending”. However, “international economies are weaker”, with “elevated” uncertainty particularly around trade. Business investment dropped in Q2.

          Hence, with muted inflation risk, Barkin said, Fed decided to make a “mid-cycle reduction” in interest rates earlier this month. That goal was to provide a “little insurance for the continued growth of the economy and strength of the labor market.”

          Full speech here.

          Australia’s employment drops by 65.1K in Dec, following two months of robust growth

            Australia had an unexpected contraction in employment in December, with a decrease of -65.1k jobs, significantly deviating from expectation of 15.4k. This decline was marked by a substantial drop in full-time employment by -106.6k, which was only partially offset by 41.4k increase in part-time jobs.

            Despite this downturn in job creation, unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9%, aligning with expectations. Participation rate declined -0.4% to 66.8%. Additionally, there was -0.5% mom decrease in the total monthly hours worked.

            David Taylor, ABS head of labour statistics, noted combined strong growth of 117k in October and November, and the fall in large contraction in December, “reflected changes in the timing of employment growth in the last few months of 2023, compared with earlier years.”

            Over the past twelve months, employment grew an average of 32k. Also, both the unemployment and underemployment rates remained relatively low and the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio relatively high. Taylor noted that suggests “the labour market remains tight.”

            Full Australia employment release here.

            New Zealand Treasury: GDP growth likely falls below budget forecasts

              In its Monthly Economic Indicators report, New Zealand Treasury Department noted that November data were “fair mixed” with some pointing to “further slowing in GDP growth”. Others indicated growth may be “leveling out”. On balance, “weaker-than-forecast investment and services exports are likely to see overall New Zealand GDP growth fall below Budget forecasts”

              It’s also noted that news flow surrounding trade tensions “continues to seesaw”. But “prospects of a US-China trade agreement have generally supported sentiment over the last month”.

              Full report here.

              Also from New Zealand, terms of trade index rose 1.9% in Q3, above expectation of 1.1%.

              ECB’s Stournaras advocates for insurance rate cut to nurture Eurozone recovery

                ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras expressed the need for an “insurance rate cut” to bolster the nascent recovery within Eurozone. Speaking to Bloomberg, Stournaras highlighted the critical balance the ECB aims to maintain in fostering economic growth without stifling it with persistently high interest rates.

                Stournaras detailed the emerging signs of economic recovery across the Eurozone, particularly noting positive developments in Germany. “We see the first seeds of a recovery in Europe — also in Germany,” he remarked, emphasizing “We don’t want to kill these first seeds of recovery.”

                The concept of an insurance rate cut, as described by Stournaras, is intended to preemptively address potential downturns, mirroring the approach taken last September when rates were increased to guard against surging inflation.

                Reflecting on the past year’s policy decisions, Stournaras acknowledged that the situation has reversed, with new risks that “fall too far below the 2% target”. Hence, “We now need an insurance in order not to get behind the curve,” he added.

                Moreover, Stournaras argued for a divergence from Fed’s current monetary policy approach, citing fundamental differences between the economic environments in Eurozone and the US. He pointed out that unlike the US, where demand is buoyed by significant governmental budgetary measures, the Eurozone’s inflation dynamics have been primarily driven by supply-side factors, not by demand or wage increases.

                Fed Chair Powell speech live stream

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                  Full speech here.

                  Fed Kashkari and Bostic focus on employment

                    Both Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic appeared to be more concerned with getting the job market back to normal, than the higher transitory inflation.

                    Kashkari said yesterday, “putting Americans back to work…to me that’s our highest priority.” He also emphasized “we don’t want to overreact to short-term price movements.”

                    Separately, Bostic said, “without clear data demonstrating that an inflationary problem has arrived and is likely to last, we will allow labor markets to run their course, which can further our pursuit of long-run maximum employment.”

                    US Treasury Mnuchin said it’s fake news about Trump push for WTO exit

                      US Treasury Steven Mnuchin calls the report about Trump wants to exit WTO “fake news” and an “exaggeration.”

                      Mnuchin added that “the president has been clear, with us and with others, he has concerns about the WTO, he thinks there’s aspects of it that are not fair, he thinks that China and others have used it to their own advantage, but we are focused on free trade. That’s what we’re focused on – breaking down barriers.”

                      Earlier today, Axios reported, quoting unnamed source” that Trump also said “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.” The reported added that “sources with knowledge of the situation say the Trump administration will continue to call attention to various ways in which the U.S. encounters what some Trump advisers perceive is unfair and unbalanced treatment within framework of the WTO.”

                      Germany poised for mild economic contraction in 2023, DIW reports

                        Germany stands on the brink of being the only major economy to register a contraction in 2023, with German economic research institute, DIW, projecting a -0.4% dip in the nation’s economic output for the year. This downturn is primarily attributed to sluggish domestic consumption and a falter in export dynamics, exacerbated by a slowed Chinese economy.

                        Looking forward, however, the institute holds a more positive outlook, forecasting a steady 1.2% growth in both 2024 and 2025. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, the co-head of forecasting and economic policy at DIW, envisages that a pronounced increase in wages and salaries would spur household expenditure, kickstarting a recovery phase.

                        Timm Bönke, also a co-head at the DIW’s forecasting department, anticipates a notable improvement in the consumer sentiment owing to a substantial dip in inflation rates in the forthcoming period. Households will be encouraged to enhance their spending, propelled by improved financial conditions and a potentially steadier inflation environment.

                        Full DIW release here.

                        Labour said May didn’t move an inch on Brexit red lines, while May urged compromises

                          Timing is ticking for the UK as April 12 Brexit day is approaching quickly. The talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn yielded no results so far. Labour’s top legal policy chief Shami Chakrabarti complained that May has not moved “an inch” on her “red lines”. And, “it’s hard to imagine that we are going to make real progress now without either a general election or a second referendum on any deal she can get over the line in parliament.”

                          May, on the other hand, said in a video, apparently shot by shaky hands, that “ending free movement, ensuring we leave with a good deal, protecting jobs, protecting security” are things the Conservatives and Labour could agree on. And, she added “it’ll mean compromise on both sides” but “delivering Brexit is the most important things for us”.

                          With no cross-party agreement in sight yet, May would need EU’s approval on her request for extension until June 30 to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Comments from EU officials suggested that they’re against another short extension with no clear and substantial developments in UK. Even the idea of “flextension” was not accepted by all. Some expected that the most likely outcome of the EU summit this week is for May to come out with a long extension. But that will very likely infuriate hard-line Brexiteers in the Conservative Party.

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                          BoE kept rate unchanged at 0.75% by unanimous votes

                            BoE kept bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and held asset purchase target at GBP 435B as widely expected. Both decisions were made by unanimous votes.

                            The central bank noted that since last meeting US-China trade war has “intensified” and global growth outlook has “weakened”. Monetary policy has been “loosened” in major many economics. Domestically, Brexit developments are making data “more volatile”. Underlying growth has “slowed” but remains “slightly positive”. Brexit uncertainties continued to “weigh on business investment”. But consumption growth has remained “resilient”.

                            BoE also reiterated that “monetary policy response would not be automatic and could be in either direction.”. In case of smooth Brexit, “increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate”.

                            Full release here.

                            Fed Kashkari: Likely scenario is continuing rate hikes and then sit there

                              Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that Fed moved too slowly in 2021 in tackling high inflation. He’s concerned that inflation is pulling wages up and there are risks of going into a wage-driven inflation story. As inflation is spreading, he said that Fed need to act with urgency.

                              There are some financial markets that are indicating that Fed will cut interest rates in 2024. But Kashkari said, “I don’t want to say it’s impossible, but it seems like that’s a very unlikely scenario right now given what I know about the underlying inflation dynamics.”

                              “The more likely scenario is we would continue raising (interest rates) and then we would sit there until we have a lot of confidence that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%,” he said.

                              ECB’s Nagel signals caution, rate cuts possible after summer break

                                In an interview with Bloomberg TV, ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel hinted at the possibility of delaying interest rate cuts until after the summer, stating, “Maybe we can wait for the summer break.” However, he was cautious not to delve into speculation, emphasizing, “I don’t want to speculate.” He also empahsized, “it’s too early to talk about cuts.”

                                Further elaborating on the current market expectations, Nagel addressed the speculations of six 25 basis points rate cuts by ECB this year. He noted, “The markets from time to time are optimistic. Sometimes they are overly optimistic.” This acknowledgment highlights a divergence between market expectations and the ECB’s internal assessments. Nagel’s observation, “I have a different view,” underscores a more cautious and less aggressive approach towards monetary easing.

                                New Zealand goods exports rose 15% yoy in Jul, imports rose 35% yoy

                                  New Zealand goods exports rose 15% yoy to NZD 5.8B in July. Goods imports rose sharply by 35% yoy to NZD 6.2B. Monthly trade balance was a deficit of NZD -402m, versus expectation of NZD 100m surplus.

                                  Exports to all trading partners were up (China +25% yoy, Australia 22% yoy, EU + 7.4% yoy, Japan +26% yoy), except the US (down -2.9% yoy. Imports from all top trading partners were up (China +22% yoy, EU + 38% yoy, Australia + 12% yoy, US + 14% yoy, Japan +71% yoy).

                                  Full release here.

                                  Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% in Sep, EU down to 6.7%

                                    Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% in September, down from August’s 7.5, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate also dropped to 6.7%, down from 6.9%.

                                    Eurostat estimates that 14.324 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.079 million in the Eurozone, were unemployed in September. Compared with August, the number of unemployed decreased by 306 000 in the EU and by 255 000 in the euro area. Compared with September 2020, unemployment decreased by 2.054 million in the EU and by 1.919 million in the euro area.

                                    Full release here.

                                    RBNZ Orr: Rates will remain low for a number of years

                                      RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in a speech that some people view global low interest rates as “signs of concern”. But he added “they can also be an opportunity” as “we are confident that rates will remain low for a number of years, providing a great environment to invest.”

                                      Orr said “the good news for New Zealand, unlike many other OECD economies, is that our government’s books are in good shape, with room to expand investment, and there is already a strong fiscal impulse underway from public spending and investment.” Also, “we have the trifecta of sound government finances, clear infrastructure demands, and low hurdle rates for investing. The same can be said for corporate balance sheets in New Zealand. With relatively low levels of debt, and ongoing demand for goods and services, our businesses are well positioned.”

                                      Orr’s full speech here.

                                      BoC Macklem: High inflation is transitory but not short-lived

                                        BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in in TV interview over the weekend that current high inflation will be “transitory but not short-lived”.

                                        I think transitory, to economists, means sort of not permanent,” he said. “I think to a lot of people, transitory means it’s going to be over quickly. … I don’t know exactly what the right word is, but it’s probably something like, ‘transitory but not short-lived.'”

                                        Macklem pointed to the latest economic projections, which indicated that inflation would rise further from current 18-year high of 4.4% to 5%, then gradually drop back to 2% by the end of next year. And that’s what he meant by “transitory but not short-lived”.

                                        Swiss KOF falls to 91.1, signals sluggish economy ahead

                                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, a leading indicator for the Swiss economy, declined from 92.1 to 91.1 in August, missing market expectation of 91.3. The barometer continues to hover below the average mark, signaling that Swiss economy is likely to face challenging conditions in the near term.

                                          According to KOF, almost all sectoral indicators contributed to the lower reading except for construction and domestic consumption, which exhibited slight positive developments.

                                          The most notable downturn in sentiment was observed in the services sector, affecting both real and financial services. This was closely followed by export-oriented businesses, as well as the hotel and restaurant industries.

                                          Full Swiss KOF release here.