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US oil inventories rose 9.3m barrels, well above expectation of 2.7m

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    ActionForex
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    US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.3m barrels in the week ending October 11, much higher than expectation of 2.7m barrels. At 434.9m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year.

    WTI crude oil remains in tight range after the release, showing little reactions. Outlook is unchanged that further decline cannot be ruled out. But we’d expect strong support form around 50 psychological level to contain downside. This level is also close to 61.8% retracement of 42.05 to 66.49 at 51.38. On the upside, break of 54.71 will target 63.04 resistance.

    DUP said it won’t support Johnson’s new Brexit deal

      By
      ActionForex
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      Sterling pares back some of earlier gains after Northern Ireland’s DUP said it won’t support UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal. In a statement, DUP said: “Following confirmation from the Prime Minister that he believes he has secured a ‘great new deal’ with the European Union the Democratic Unionist Party will be unable to support these proposals in Parliament.:

      It added: “these proposals are not, in our view, beneficial to the economic well-being of Northern Ireland and they undermine the integrity of the Union…. it is our view that these arrangements would not be in Northern Ireland’s long term interests.”

      Philly Fed survey dropped to 5.6, price pressure moderated

        By
        ActionForex
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        Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Diffusion Index dropped -6 pts to 5.6, missed expectation of 7.1. The percentage of firms reporting increases (27%) this month narrowly exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (21%). Price paid index dropped -16 pts to 16.8, suggesting price pressures moderated.

        Philly Fed noted: “Responses to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest growth in manufacturing activity this month. Although they remained positive, the indicators for general activity and shipments fell from their levels in September. The firms reported an improvement in both new orders and employment this month. The survey’s future indexes indicate that respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months.”

        Full release here.

        US initial jobless claims rose to 214k, above expectation of 212k

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 214k in the week ending October 12, slightly above expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 214.75k. Continuing claims dropped -10k to 1.679m in the week ending October 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3.5k to 1.670m.

          Full release here.

          China MOFCOM: Final goal of trade talks is to end trade war and remove all tariffs

            By
            ActionForex
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            Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said today that the “final goal” of US-China trade negotiation is to “end the trade war and cancel all additional tariffs”. He added, “this would benefit China, the U.S. and the whole world. We hope that both sides will continue to work together, advance negotiations, and reach a phased agreement as soon as possible.”

            Also, Gao admitted that “Since this year, under the effect of China-US trade frictions, trade and investment between the U.S. and China have fallen”. “This fully demonstrates that trade wars have no winners”, he added.

            Sterling rises as Brexit deal finally clinched in Brussels

              By
              ActionForex
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              Sterling surges on news that a Brexit deal is finally clinched in Brussels today, after marathon discussions this week. The news also take stocks and commodity currencies higher. The agreement came just a few hours ahead of the EU summit. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in a letter that he would recommend EU27 leaders to approve the deal. And it’s a “high time” to complete the Brexit process.

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              UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said “we have a great new Brexit deal”. His spokesperson added that Johnson is confidence that the new Brexit deal will go forward for a vote in the parliament on Sunday. And, “The public would expect if the deal is passed, for MPs to do everything they can to pass it on time and yes we are confident that we can do that, referring to leaving EU on October 31.

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              Australia NAB business confidence dropped to -2, conditions improved to 1

                By
                ActionForex
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                Australia quarterly NAB Business Confidence dropped from 5 to -2 in Q2. Current Business Confidence improved from 1 to 2. However, Business Confidence for the next 3 months dropped from 12 to 9. Business confidence for the next 12 months dropped from 23 to 20. Capex plans for the next 12 months also dropped from 24 to 21.

                According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist: “There are tentative signs that the trend decline in business conditions since mid-2108 has slowed, but conditions remain below average with only a small increase in Q3. Business confidence saw a sharp fall in Q3 more than reversing the surprising bounce in Q2. It appears that any post-election optimism has faded despite very low interest rates following the back to back interest rate cuts mid-year”.

                Full release here.

                Australia unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, Aussie lifted mildly

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Australian dollar is lifted by decline in unemployment rate as data showed. While the improvement is welcomed by RBA, it’s far from being enough to confirm a pause in the easing cycle. The economy added 14.7k jobs in September, above expectation of 10.0k. Full-time employment grew 26.2k while part-time employment dropped -11.4k. Unemployment rate dropped -0.1% to 5.2% but participation rate also dropped -0.1% to 66.1%.

                  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.2% in New South Wales (4.5%), and by 0.1 % in Queensland (6.5%). Decreases were recorded in South Australia (down 1.0% to 6.3%, following a cumulative increase of 1.3% over the previous two months), Victoria (down 0.2% to 4.7%) and Tasmania (down 0.2% to 6.2%), with Western Australia recording no change.

                  Full release here.

                  EU ready to approve Brexit deal, awaiting UK Commons support

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    There is increasing optimism that a Brexit deal could finally be agreed by UK and EU, as soon as on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron said “I want to believe that a deal is being finalized and that we can approve it tomorrow [Thursday].” German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said she is increasingly of the belief” that an agreement would be reached. Earlier, European Council President Donald Tusk also noted “theoretically we could accept a deal tomorrow.”

                    The plan to publish a full legal text ahead of EU summit on Thursday and Friday, however, was put on hold, due to uncertainties on the British side. EU leaders are ready to approve the deal on condition of backing from UK House of Commons, at a special sitting on Saturday. ERG leader Steve Baker said after a backbench 1922 meeting that the deal in the works “could well be tolerable”. But the big question lies in Northern Ireland’s DUP.

                    US Mnuchin: Administration’s objective to ready the US-China trade deal phase 1 by APEC next month

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said yesterday that the texts of phase one US-China trade agreement are being written by both teams. The administration’s “objective” was to ready the agreement to be signed by both Presidents at the APEC summit in Chile on November 16-17.

                      Mnuchin added the phase one agreement would include a “quite broad” chapter regarding protection of American intellectual property rights in China. The would also be some coverages on structural agricultural issues and currencies. Meanwhile, some of the issues regarding forced technology transfer would be addressed in the second phase of negotiations.

                      On the US side, Mnuchin said, “we were all focused on was the October tariffs”. And, “we have not gone to the president with any recommendation or any decision” regarding the tranche of tariffs scheduled for December 15.

                      ECB Lane: Convergence of inflation towards target partly reversed

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        In a presentation to the Brookings institution in Washington, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said:

                        • The euro area is facing a more extended slowdown than previously expected
                        • The convergence of inflation towards the inflation aim has recently slowed and partly reversed
                        • The ECB’s monetary policy measures remain effective in fostering a reacceleration of growth and, thereby, inflation convergence
                        • A highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will be necessary for a prolonged period of time
                        • The more fiscal policy contributes to boosting long-term growth potential and providing cyclical stabilisation, the quicker will be the effects of monetary policy interventions on the economy and inflation

                        Full presentation here.

                        Fed Evans expects no change in interest rate through end of 2020

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Evans expects the US economy to grow “a touch above 2 percent this year”. Even though growth is clearly slowing, ‘2 percent is not far from my staff’s estimate of the economy’s long-run potential growth rate, which is between 1-3/4 and 2 percent”. Thus, growth would continue to run roughly in line with potential. Meanwhile, unemployment is anticipated to remain close to current level for some time, “below the long-run benchmark of 4.2 percent”.

                          He also forecast inflation to “move up slowly and then modestly overshoot out 2 percent target a couple years down the road”. To achieve this, more monetary accommodation is needed that he though necessary just this last December. Since then, some data came in weaker, downside risks multiplied, and inflation and inflation expectations retreated. Thus, the two 25bps rate cut this year were “quite appropriate”.

                          Yet, Evans added “policy probably is in a good place right now”. Growth outlook is good, and we have policy accommodation in place to support rising inflation.”. He is “keeping an open mind” to arguments of more accommodations, including uncertainties and unexpected downside shocks. But his overall assessment is “pretty much in line” with FOMC’s median outlook. That is, no additional change in federal funds rate target through the end of 2020, and one rate hike in each of 2021 and 2022.

                          Evan’s full speech here.

                          EU Brexit debriefing delayed for second time

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            On Brexit agreement, European Council President Donald Tusk said, “it is still undergoing changes and the basic foundations of this agreement are ready and theoretically we could accept a deal tomorrow.” And, “yesterday evening I was ready to bet on it…today again certain doubts have appeared from the British side.” Nevertheless, “theoretically in seven to eight hours everything should be clear.”

                            Meanwhile, EU’s debriefing on Brexit negotiations is said to be delayed for a second time to 1700GMT today.

                            Canada CPI unchanged at 1.9%, but core CPI accelerated

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Canada headline CPI dropped -0.4% mom in September, much worse than expectation of 0.0%. Annually, CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, below expectation of 2.0% yoy. However, CPI core common rose to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy and beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. CPI core median rose to 2.2% yoy, up from 2.1% yoy and beat expectation of 2.1% yoy. CPI core trimmed also rose to 2.1% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy, matched expectations.

                              Full release here.

                              US retail sales dropped -0.3%, first contraction in seven months

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                US retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in September, much worse than expectation of 0.3% mom rise. That’s also the first decline in seven months since February. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.1% mom, also worse than expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually, retail sales rose 0.4% yoy over September 2018. Total sales for the July 2019 through September 2019 period were up 4.0% from the same period a year ago.

                                Full release here.

                                Brexit negotiations still ongoing, Varadkar hopes to complete today

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said Brexit negotiations with EU were still ongoing with issues to be resolved. At the same time, discussions also continued with Conservative and Northern Ireland’s DUP MPs.

                                  Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar also said that “we are making progress but there are issues yet to be resolved and hopefully that can be done today.” “But if it’s not, there is still more time. October 31 is still a few weeks away and there is the possibility of an additional summit before that if we need one”.

                                  EU chief Brexit negotiator delayed the briefing to EU leaders to 1500GMT today, from 1200GMT.

                                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 0.8%, core CPI at 1.0%

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.8% yoy in September, down form 1.0% yoy in August. Core CPI was finalized at 1.0% yoy, up from 0.9% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (0.66%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.29%), non-energy industrial goods (0.06%) and energy (-0.18 %).

                                    EU28 CPI was finalized at 1.2% yoy, down from 1.4% yoy in August. The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (-0.5%), Portugal (-0.3%), Greece, Spain and Italy (all 0.2%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (3.5%), Slovakia (3.0%) and Hungary (2.9%). Compared with August, annual inflation fell in twenty Member States, remained stable in five and rose in two.

                                    Full release here.

                                    UK CPI unchanged at 1.7%, core CPI rose to 1.7%

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      UK CPI was unchanged at 1.7% yoy in September, missed expectation of 1.8% yoy. Core CPI, on the other hand, accelerated to 1.7% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, matched expectations. RPI, however, slowed to 2.4% yoy, down from 2.6% yoy and missed expectation of 2.7% yoy.

                                      Also from UK, PPI input dropped to -2.8% yoy, down from -0.9% yoy and missed expectation of -1.8% yoy. PPI output dropped to 1.2% yoy, down from 1.6% yoy and missed expectation of 1.3% yoy. PPI output core dropped to 1.7% yoy, down from 2.0% yoy, missed expectation of 1.9% yoy.

                                      Sterling firm despite DUP’s concerns on Johnson’s Brexit concessions

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Sterling surged overnight on news that UK and EU are closing in on a Brexit deal in Brussels. The Pound remains firm in Asian session, awaiting further developments. It’s reported that both sides have hammered out most of the differences over the past 48 hours. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is said to have made several major concessions. Most notably, he now accepts that there will be customs checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of UK.

                                        Johnson’s move got support from fellow Conservatives. Steve Baker, chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, said “I’m happy to say it was a very constructive conversation” and “I’m optimistic it is possible to reach a tolerable deal which I will be able to vote for.” Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar also gave a nod and said “the negotiations are moving in the right direction.”

                                        However, Northern Ireland’s DUP sounds very skeptical on it. Party leader Arlene Foster said “it would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required.” Also, DUP needs “a deal that respects Northern Ireland’s constitutional position as per the Belfast Agreement within the U.K. and indeed respects the economic integrity of the U.K. single market.” Johnson will certainly need support from DUP before giving greenlight to such a deal.

                                        New Zealand CPI slowed to 1.5%, RBNZ expected to cut further

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          New Zealand CPI rose 0.7% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 0.6% qoq. Annually, CPI slowed to 1.5% yoy, down from 1.7% yoy, but beat expectation of 1.4% yoy. The trimmed-mean measures – which exclude extreme price movements – ranged from 1.7% to 1.8% for the year. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 1.5% overall increase in the CPI. On a quarterly basis, trimmed means ranged from 0.5% to 0.6%.

                                          Full release here.

                                          Separately, RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said in a speech that New Zealand remains vulnerable to external shocks. And, “lower rates still may be needed to achieve our inflation and maximum sustainable employment objectives”. He added that there is reasonable prospect for the cash rate to go lower.

                                          Despite slightly stronger than expected inflation data, RBNZ is still generally expected to cut interest rate further from the current 1.00% level. The need for another shocking -50bps cut, like the one in August, is less likely though. The central bank is now expected to cut another -25bps in November, and probably another -25bps in February.

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