Italy edging close to political resolutions

    Italy appeared to be edging closer to political resolutions even though coalition talks were dragging on to Wednesday’s deadline. Comments from both 5-Star Movement and Democratic Party (PD) were up beat after yesterday’s meeting concluded.

    PD’s Senate leader Andrea Marcucci said “our work is continuing in a fruitful way”. Deputy PD leader Paola De Micheli said the two sides had “analyzed points for the basis of a common program”. 5-Star’s Senate chief Stefano Patuanelli also said there was a “good climate” during the meeting.

    Both parties are expected to tell President Sergio Mattarella by Wednesday 1400 GMT on whether a coalition could be formed. If not, Mattarella would dissolve the parliament and call for an early election.

    US consumer confidence dropped to 135.1, tariff escalation could potentially dampen optimism

      US Consumer Confidence dropped slightly to 135.1 in August, down from 135.8 but beat expectation of 129.0. Present Situation Index rose from 170.9 to 177.2. Expectations Index dropped from 112.4 to 107.0.

      Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said: “While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers have remained confident and willing to spend. However, if the recent escalation in trade and tariff tensions persists, it could potentially dampen consumers’ optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook.”

      Full release here.

      ECB de Guindos: Market expectations cannot replace policy judgement

        ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that policy makers need to take market expectations with a “punch of salt”. He emphasized that “Our monetary policy is data dependent, not market dependent: indications from market expectations cannot replace our policy judgment”.

        He also added, “another way of robustifying our analysis is to look for expectations beyond those expressed in financial market prices.”

        Sterling jumps as UK lawmakers agreed to seek Brexit delay by legislation

          Sterling jumps on news that opposition parties agreed to try to pass a law to see another Brexit delay to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31. MP Anna Soubry tweeted : “Excellent meeting between all the opposition party leaders this morning. We agree we will work together to stop a no deal #Brexit by legislation”. Green Party MP Caroline Lucas also told BBC that MPs agreed “that the legislative way forward is the most secure way to try to extend Article 50, to get rid of that 31st October deadline towards which the prime minister is careering with ever greater recklessness”.

          GBP/USD rises sharply today and the rebound from 1.2014 is likely resuming through last week’s high at 1.2293.

          German Q2 GDP finalized at -0.1% qoq, slowed by foreign trade

            Germany Q2 GDP was finalized at -0.1% qoq, 0.4% yoy. Statistisches Bundesamt noted that foreign trade slowed down growth. On the other hand, consumption expenditure and capital formation supported economic activity

            It said that after seasonal and calendar adjustment, price-adjusted exports were down -1.3% from the preceding quarter, markedly more than imports (-0.3%). Positive contributions came from domestic demand. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.1% qoq. Government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.5% qoq.

            Full release here.

            Italy coalition talk on verge of failure

              In Italy, ruling 5-Star Movement halted the coalition talk with opposition Democratic Party with a blunt statement today. The statement noted that “Yesterday after four hours of talks, nothing was achieved… We cannot any longer work like this. Either the attitude changes or it’s difficult. We will see the PD again when the party has given its OK to the reappointment of Conte.” On the other hand, PD spokesman accused 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio of hindering talks with his request to serve as interior minister as well as deputy prime minister.

              The two parties are expected to report back to President Sergio Mattarella tomorrow, on the conclusion of coalition talks. If they cannot come to an agreement, Mattarella is expected to name a caretaker government and call early elections.

              EU Juncker and UK Johnson to hold call on Brexit today

                The European Commission said that President Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a telephone call with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Brexit today. That comes as UK Brexit negotiator is going to Brussels tomorrow for a renewed push for Brexit negotiations. The commission’s spokesperson Mina Andreeva reiterated that “we stand ready to engage constructively with the UK on any concrete proposals that are compatible with the Withdrawal Agreement.”On the other hand, Johnson’s spokesperson Alison Donnelly said he believed there was enough time to agree on backstop alternative. And UK wants to discuss the options.

                Separately, UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is hosting a meeting with other parties on stopping a no-deal Brexit. And he left all options open on the table. Labour leader is set to be ready to support the call for a general election, even if the vote took place just days before the October 31 Brexit deadline.

                RBNZ Orr: Global investment on hold for political uncertainty in many, many regions

                  In an interview by Australian Financial Review, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the “single biggest” factor for -50bps rate cut was domestic. Inflation expectations were starting to decline and “we didn’t want to be behind the curve”. He added, “we want to keep inflation expectations positive – near the mid-point of the band.” But Orr also noted that “global interest rates had swung dramatically between our monetary policy statements.” And the large swing in forward interest rates suggested “a significant story behind that.”

                  Orr also noted “investments has really been on hold for a while” globally, “given political uncertainty across many, many regions”. ” US-China escalating trade challenge, and that’s real now… Likewise, other countries: the Italians without government, Brexit, Hong Kong… So that manifests itself from being a political uncertainty, to capital no longer being invested. So this is one of the rolling challenges that’s happening.”

                  His full interview here.

                  ECB Kazimir: Credible policy action needs broad unity and agreement

                    ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said yesterday that he was leaning toward “action, doing something” at the September meeting. Though, he also emphasized that “we need to take steps that are credible in the eyes of the market.” And, “credibility also means broad unity and agreement on the measures.”

                    Kazimir also noted that there are no limits on what ECB could pick from its toolbox. However, economic outlook differs across Eurozone. Thus, finding a consensus for the whole are is important. And he preferred “the broadest agreement”.

                    RBA Debelle: Exchange rate plays important role of external shock absorber

                      RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle warned that US-China trade war poses a “significant risk” to Australia and the rest of the world. He also defended the existing rules-based global trading system. He said, “despite some flaws, that system has delivered sizeable benefits for global growth and welfare”, and “Australia has clearly been a major beneficiary of that system.”

                      Nevertheless, Debelle also noted that Australia is “less vulnerable” to external shocks now. He said “if you look at the balance sheet of the country as a whole, Australia has a net foreign currency asset position”. “Hence when the exchange rate depreciates, the value of net foreign liabilities actually declines rather than increase. To reiterate, this allows the exchange rate to play the important role of shock absorber to external shocks”, he added.

                      Japan Aso to watch current market move with sense of urgency

                        At a regular press conference, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso emphasized that “currency stability is important”. He added that “we must closely watch the currency market move with a sense of urgency. Though, he didn’t give any comment of specific exchange rate levels. The comments came after Yen spiked higher yesterday in response to abrupt escalation of US-China trade war.

                        Aso also noted that recent market volatility won’t change the government stance on the planned sale tax hike. The government will still proceed with October’s sale take hike from 8% to 10%, unless there is serious shocks in the economy.

                        US durable goods orders rose 2.1%, ex-transport orders dropped -0.4%

                          US durable goods orders rose 2.1% in July well above expectations of 1.0%. total new orders for manufactured durable goods rose USD 5B to USD 250.4B. However, ex-transport orders dropped -0.4%, below expectation of 0.0%. Ex-defense orders, though, rose 1.4%. Transport equipment rose 7.0%.

                          Full release here.

                          German Merkel wants EU-US trade deal asap

                            US President Donald Trump indicated that he and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed a trade deal with the EU. Also at G7, Merkel said she wants EU to reach a trade agreement with US as quickly as possible,

                            Merkel said, “we want to talk now about the EU and the United States having deeper talks as quickly as possible… We have a great interest in our trade being intensified. I think we can find solutions… Germany, within the framework of the EU, is working hard on this.”

                            Trump: Xi is a great leader who understand how life works

                              Market sentiments stablized after US President Donald Trump toned down his rhetoric on trade war with China. He reiterated that “China called last night our top trade people and said ‘Let’s get back to the table'”. Hence, we’ll be getting back to the table, and I think they want to do something. Trump also said: “They want calm, and that’s a great thing, frankly. And one of the reasons that he’s a great leader, President Xi, and one of the reasons that China’s a great country is they understand how life works.”

                              However, Chinese tabloid Global Times Hu Xijin denied there was phone call between the two sides. He tweeed that “Based on what I know, Chinese and U.S. top negotiators didn’t hold phone talks in recent days. The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn’t have significance that President Trump suggested. China didn’t change its position. China won’t cave to US pressure”.

                              German Ifo dropped to 94.3, even more indications of a recession

                                German ifo Business Climate dropped to 94.3 in August, down from 95.7 and missed expectation of 95.0. That’s also the lowest level since November 2012. Expectations Index dropped to 91.3, down from 92.2 and missed expectation of 91.8. Current Assessment Index dropped to 97.3, down from 99.4 and missed expectation of 98.8.

                                Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute, said: “Companies were once again much less satisfied with their current business situation. Pessimism regarding the coming months also increased. There are ever more indications of a recession in Germany.”

                                Looking at some details, Manufacturing Index dropped from -4.3 to -6.1. And “the last time that industrial companies demonstrated such pessimism was in the crisis year of 2009. Not a single ray of light was to be seen in any of Germany’s key industries.” Service Sector Index dropped from 18.0 to 13.0. Trade Index dropped from 1.4 to -2.4. Construction Index dropped from 23.1 to 21.4.

                                Full release here.

                                Trump said China called for trade talks, but Chinese Foreign ministry not aware of it

                                  US President Donald Trump said on the sidelines of G7 in France, “China called last night our top trade people and said, ‘let’s get back to the table’, so we’ll be getting back to the table, and I think they want to do something”. He added, “they’ve been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do.”

                                  Trump also noted “they have supply chains that are unbelievably intricate and people are all leaving and they are going to other countries, including the United States by the way, we are going to get a lot of them too”

                                  However, China’s Foreign Ministry said they’re not aware of the weekend phone calls Trump mentioned. But the spokesman said China hopes the United States can come back to the path of rationality, adding that “decoupling” won’t resolve current problems.

                                  US and Japan agreed in principle on trade deal, for signing next month

                                    US President Donald Trump and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced to have agreed in principle on trade deal, at a joint press conference at G7 in France. The teams are now working on finalizing the agreement for signing next month.

                                    Trump said “It’s a very big transaction, and we’ve agreed in principle. It’s billions and billions of dollars. Tremendous for the farmers”. US Trade representative Robert Lighthizer said the agreement “will lead to substantial reductions in tariffs and non-tariff barriers across the board.”

                                    Abe also noted “we still have some remaining work that has to be done at the working level, namely finalizing the wording of the trade agreement and also finalizing the content of the agreement itself… But we would like to make sure that our teams … accelerate the remaining work for us to achieve this goal of realizing the signing of the agreement on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly at the end of September.”

                                    Yuan and stocks tumble in response to trade war escalation

                                      In response to trade war escalation, Chinese Yuan and stocks tumble sharply at open today. USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) hit new high at 7.1832 before retreating mildly. China Shanghai SSE hit as low as 2849.24 and is currently down -0.95%. Hong Kong HSI suffers steep selloff and hit as low as 25249.51, and it’s currently down -2.79%. Some recoveries are seen on news that the National Reform and Development Commission (NDRC) will “reasonably expand effective investment” by lowering the requirement of the minimum capital ratio for some infrastructure projects.

                                      USD/CNH’s up trend from 6.2359 is in progress. As long as 6.9909 support holds, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 6.2359 to 6.9804 from 6.6704 at 7.4149 in medium term next.

                                      China: Trade war with US is an unavoidable trial by fire

                                        Chinese Vice Premier Liu He tried to tone down recent abrupt escalation of trade tensions with the US. He said “we are willing to resolve the issue through consultations and cooperation in a calm attitude and resolutely oppose the escalation of the trade war.” He added that such escalation is “not beneficial for China, the United States, nor to the interests of the people of the world”.

                                        Liu also emphasized that China “welcome enterprises from all over the world, including the United States, to invest and operate in China”. “We will continue to create a good investment environment, protect intellectual property rights, promote the development of smart intelligent industries with our market open, resolutely oppose technological blockades and protectionism, and strive to protect the completeness of the supply chain,” he added.

                                        However, state media is singing another tune. The official China Daily warned that US President Donald Trump’s tariff war was unquestionably “politically motivated”. And, “what Washington wants from its largest trade partner is for it to be content to play second fiddle and meekly do as it demands”. It added “Beijing regards the trade war as an unavoidable trial by fire, from which the country will emerge stronger.”

                                        Trump to raise tariffs on China by another 5% as trade war escalates

                                          In a second series of furious tweet yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced to raise tariffs on China, in response the latter’s retaliation announced earlier in the day. Starting on October 1, tariffs on USD 250B in China imports will be raised from current 25% to 30%. The rate of the planned tariffs, to take effect on September 1, on USD 300B of Chinese products, will be raised from 10% to 15%.

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