DOW drops sharply after Trump’s strong response to China retaliation tariffs

    US President Donald Trump responded to China’s retaliation tariffs serious of strongly worded tweets. He said “we don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them.” And, “our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China”.

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    DOW drops sharply in response to Trump’s tweet and is currently down -440 pts. The rejection by 55 day EMA again keeps near term outlook bearish. Focus should be back on 25440.39 support next week. Break will resume the fall from 27398.68 to 24680.57.

    Fed Powell noted new tariffs, global slowdown, no-deal Brexit, HK tension and Italy

      In the highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the three weeks since July FOMC meeting “have been eventful”. There were new tariffs on Chinese imports, further evidence in global slowdown notably in Germany and China. Also, there were geopolitical events including “growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government.”

      Though, US economy has “continued to perform well overall, driven by consumer spending”. Job creation slowed but is “still above overall labor force growth”. Inflation seems to be “moving up closer to 2%. Powell pledged, “based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate.

      Dollar dips mildly after the release but overall, downside is limited for the moment.

      Powell’s full speech here.

      Fed Bullard backs more insurance cut against downside risks

        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a known dove, told CNBC that “we should get lower here,” on interest rates. He added “The yield curve is inverted. We’ve got one of the higher rates on the whole yield curve. That is not a good place to be”.

        Bullard also asked “How much risk are we facing from the fact that we’ve got a global manufacturing contraction going on and possibly more to come?”. And, “I’d like to take out more insurance against that downside risk.”

        Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she’s approach next month’s FOMC meeting with an open mind. She added if the economy continues where it is, I would probably say we should keep things the way they are.” Though, she is “very attuned to the downside risks to this economy and I want to make sure we’re always focused on our dual-mandate goals.”

        China announced retaliation on tariffs on USD 75B of US imports

          China’s Ministry of Commerce announced retaliation tariffs on USD 75B US imports. Additional tariffs of 5% or 10% will be imposed on a total of 5078 products lines originating from US. Goods include agricultural products, crude oil, small aircraft and cars.

          The first batch will take effect on September 1. Others will take effect on December 15.

          Canada retail sales rose 0.0% mom, ex-auto sales jumped 0.9% mom

            Canada retail sales rose 0.0% mom in Jun, above expectation of -0.3% mom. Ex-auto sales jumped 0.9% mom, well above expectation of 0.0% mom. Sales were down in 4 of 11 subsectors, representing 48% of retail trade. Retail sales decreased in four provinces and more than offset gains across the rest of the country. Full release here.

            Some volatility is seen in USD/CAD after the release. But it’s on track to take on 1.3345 resistance after the moves. The pair is now awaiting Fed chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

            China said to be ready to unveil retaliation to US tariffs

              It’s reported that China is ready to unveil the retaliation to new US tariffs that will take effect in September.

              Editor in chief of Global Times, Hu Xijin, said in a tweet that “Based on what I know, China will take further countermeasures in response to U.S. tariffs on $300 billion Chinese goods. Beijing will soon unveil a plan of imposing retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products”.

              Global Times is a state owned media of China, that’s known for it hawkish stance.

              EU ready to engage constructively with the UK on any concrete Irish backstop proposals

                German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said that it’s up to the UK to come up with proposals to solve the issue of Irish backstop. He added that the European Commission is ready to discuss any proposal by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

                On the other hand, European Commission spokesperson reiterated that “the Commission’s position when it comes to Brexit matters is well known and this remains a united, singular, EU position”. And, “we stand ready to engage constructively with the UK on any concrete proposals that are compatible with the Withdrawal Agreement.”

                German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that a solution for UK to find a solution to remove the Irish backstop from the withdrawal agreement can be achieved by October 31 Brexit date.

                Fed Kaplan prefers to avoid further actions on interest rates

                  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he’d like to “avoid having to take further action” on interest rates. Though, he’s going to “have an open mind about taking action over the next number of months if we need to.”

                  He added “even though the consumer is very strong and a key underpinning to the economy, manufacturing sector is weak and probably weakening and global growth decelerating is probably finding its way to seep into the U.S. economy.” There are “downside” risks to Fed’s GDP growth forecast of 2% this year.

                  Regarding yield curve inversion, Kaplan said “I’m more focused on the fact that the whole curve has moved down over the last three and a half months and the Fed funds rate at two to two and a quarter is now above every rate along the curve which to me is a bit of a reality check that says it’s possible our monetary policy stays a little tighter than I would have thought three or four months ago.”

                  Japan CPI core stuck at 0.6%, two-year low

                    Japan all-item CPI slowed to 0.5% yoy in July, down from 0.7% yoy and missed expectation of 0.6% yoy. Core CPI (ex-fresh food) was unchanged at 0.6% yoy, matched expectations. Core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) rose to 0.6% yoy, up from 0.5% yoy and beat expectation of 0.5% yoy.

                    The core CPI reading remained well below BoJ’s 2% target and was stuck at the lowest level since July 2017. The data clearly showed that BoJ remains well behind is its efforts to boost inflation. While Japan is in no sense in deflation for now, it’s just a matter of time when BoJ would finally admits that momentum in price is gone.

                    Japan Motegi: getting closer to a conclusion with US on trade

                      Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi held marathon four-hour talks with US Trade Representative Robert Ligthizer in Washington yesterday. After that, Motegi said the two countries were “getting closer to reach a conclusion” on trade agreement. He added that “we’re spending quite a long time” because the discussions involved details covering a wide range of areas.

                      Talks will continue on Friday and Motegi said “we’ll see what we can do (in talks) tomorrow”, regarding the chance of reaching a conclusion on trade.

                      WH Kudlow: Still planning for Chinese trade team to come in September

                        White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said yesterday that there was “quite constructive” telephone conversations at deputy level between US and China and trade. The deputies have agreed to set up another conference call and were working through some of the key issues.

                        Kudow added “we are still planning for the Chinese team to come over here in September.”

                        On the economy, Kudlow dismissed the concerns of a downturn. Instead, he said “we don’t anticipate anything but a solid strong economy.”

                        Italian President Mattarella gave parties till Tuesday to form new coalition

                          Italian President Sergio Mattarella completed two days of talks with parties in search for a solution for the political turmoil. He told reports that dissolving parliament just 17 months after last election shouldn’t be a decision that’s taken lightly. Some parties are trying to form a solid majority for coalition. Mattarella requested the parties, without naming them, to report back on Tuesday for two more days of talks.

                          It’s known that the 5-Star Movement is trying to form a coalition with center-left Democratic Party. Speaking to reporters after his meeting with the president, 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio said “in recent hours, all the necessary contacts have been launched to find a solid majority”. Additionally, Di Maio had handed Mattarella a list of 10 reforms that he wanted to see completed before parliament was dissolved.

                          Fed Harker said “no, not right now” for another rate cut

                            Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told CNBC “No. Not right now”, when asked if he sees a case for further rate cut. He explained, “the labor markets are strong, inflation is moving up slowly — but with the last CPI print, it was a good print,”

                            On the current interest rate, he said: “We’re roughly where neutral is. It’s hard to know exactly where neutral is, but I think we’re roughly where neutral is right now. And I think we should stay here for a while and see how things play out.”

                            US PMI manufacturing dropped to 119-month low, contractionary at 49.9

                              US PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.9 in August, down from 50.4 and missed expectation of 50.5. That’s the lowest level in 119 months. PMI Services dropped to 50.9, down from 53.0 and missed expectation of 52.8. PMI Composite dropped to 50.9, down from 52.6.

                              Commenting on the flash PMI data, Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit said:

                              “August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth has continued to soften in the third quarter. The PMIs for manufacturing and services remain much weaker than at the beginning of 2019 and collectively point to annualized GDP growth of around 1.5%.

                              “The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget setting.

                              “Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the fastest pace since August 2009.

                              “Business expectations for the year ahead became more gloomy in August and remain the lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012. The continued slide in corporate growth projections suggests that firms may exert greater caution in relation to spending, investment and staff hiring during the coming months.”

                              Full release here.

                              German Merkel said Irish backstop solution could be achieved by Oct 31

                                Sterling is given a lift after German Chancellor Angela Merkel hinted that the Irish border solution could be achieved within 30 days to avoid no-deal Brexit.

                                Merkel denied that she’s set a 30-day deadline for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to find a solution to remove the Irish backstop from the withdrawal agreement.

                                Though, she clarified that what one can achieve in three or two years can also be achieved in 30 days. Better said, one must say that one can also achieve it by October 31.”

                                US initial jobless claims dropped to 209k, vs exp. 217k

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped -12k to 209k in the week ending August 17, below expectation of 217k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 0.5k to 214.5k.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -54k to 1.674m in the week ending August 10. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -0.75k to 1.697m.

                                  Full release here.

                                  ECB accounts: Policy package more effective than a sequence of selective actions

                                    Accounts of the July 24-25 ECB policy meeting showed that members “broadly supported the reintroduction of an easing bias” to the forward guidance. That came in light of “weakness of the economic outlook and the muted inflation developments”.

                                    For further easing, “the view was expressed that the various options should be seen as a package, i.e. a combination of instruments with significant complementarities and synergies”. That’s because “experience had shown that a policy package – such as the combination of rate cuts and asset purchases – was more effective than a sequence of selective actions.”

                                    Full meeting accounts here.

                                    French Macron to Johnson: UK’s Destiny is Your Choice Alone

                                      French President Emmanuel Macron told UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, alongside him, that there was not enough time to negotiate a new Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. And, it’s for Johnson alone to choose the UK’s destiny. Macron added that EU is ready for a no-deal Brexit scenario even though it’s not the bloc’s wish. And, Irish backstop was not just a technical mechanism but a guarantor of stability.

                                      On the other hand, Johnson said he wanted to make sure works are done on both sides of the Channel to make smooth Brexit, with, or without an agreement. And that’s as ” smooth and pain-free as possible for citizens and businesses on both sides.”

                                      German Chancellor Angela Merkel challenged Johnson to come up with alternatives to the Irish backstop within 30 days, which Johnson accepted. So, focus in the upcoming weeks will be on UK’s response.

                                      Fed George: July’s rate cut wasn’t required, policy at equilibrium now

                                        Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented the rate cut at July FOMC meeting, repeated her stance that the rate cut “wasn’t required”. She told CNBC that “with this very low unemployment rate, with wages rising, with the inflation rate staying close to the Fed’s target, I think we’re in a good place relative to the mandates that we’re asked to achieve.”

                                        Though, she admitted that risks are tilted to the downside. She noted, “as you look at global growth weakening and as you look at the amount of uncertainty associated with some of these trade issues, I think both of those are weighing on the outlook. Whether they spill over in a way that we see in the real economy is what I’m watching for.”

                                        Separately, she told Bloomberg TV that “We’re at a sort of equilibrium right now and I’d be happy to leave rates here absent seeing either some weakness or some strengthening, some kind of upside risk that would cause me to think rates should be somewhere else.”

                                        Eurozone PMIs: Dynamics little changed, indicate 0.1-0.2% GDP growth in Q3

                                          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose to 47.0 in August, up from 46.5 and beat expectation of 46.2. PMI |Services rose to 53.4, up from 53.2 and beat expectation of 53.0. PMI Composite rose to 51.8, up fro 51.5.

                                          Commenting on the flash PMI data, Andrew Harker, Associate Director at IHS Markit said:

                                          “The dynamics of the eurozone economy were little changed in August, with solid growth in services continuing to hold the wider economy’s head above water despite ongoing manufacturing decline. While the rate of overall expansion ticked up, we’re still looking at GDP only rising by between 0.1% and 0.2%, based on the PMI data for the third quarter so far.

                                          “The lack of a quick rebound from the recent economic slowdown has impacted firms’ confidence, with sentiment the lowest in over six years. It appears that companies are braced for a sustained period of weakness, and as a result are showing greater reluctance to take on additional staff.

                                          “France was a relative bright spot in August, seeing manufacturing return to growth alongside a further solid expansion of services activity. The same can’t be said for Germany, however, where new orders fell to the greatest extent in over six years and firms were pessimistic around the future path for activity. The risk remains, therefore, that the euro area’s largest economy will have fallen into technical recession in the third quarter.”

                                          Full release here.