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UK PM May bashed by British media for failure at EU summit

    By
    ActionForex
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    UK media generally bashed Prime Minister Theresa May’s performance at the informal EU summit in Austria. There are headlines today like “May humiliated,” “Humiliation for May,” “Embarrassing rebuff for PM in Salzburg,” “Your Brexit’s broken,”etc. It’s rather common for UK politicians to get the harshest words back at home. Comments from the EU were so far rather gentle.

    House Minister James Brokenshire defended her in a BBC radio interview, saying ” the prime minister is getting the right deal for our country. She is sticking up for Britain, sticking up what will work for country. These are tough negotiations.”

    However, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said, “Now that the EU has explicitly rejected it, the Chequers pretence has to stop. At the very least, single market/customs union membership must be back on the table and the Article 50 clock stopped to avoid a cliff edge”.

    Separately, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urge EU and UK to be like “two loving hedgehogs”. And, “when two hedgehogs hug each other, you have to be careful that there will be no scratches.”

    Sterling rebound lost steam after UK PM May survived leadership challenge

      By
      ActionForex
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      Sterling softens mildly in Asia after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived the leadership challenge. 200 Conservative MPs voted in support for May in the no-confidence vote. 117 voted against her. That’s way more than enough to secure her place as Prime Minister. But it’s still alarming than more than a third of the MPs of her party wanted her out. May herself also admitted that “a significant number of colleagues did cast a vote against me and I’ve listened to what they said”. But she added it’s time to “get on with the job of delivering Brexit for the British people”.

      May will go to Brussels for the two day EU summit today. But she’s only given 10 mins to tell EU leaders what she needs to get the Brexit agreement through parliament. EU’s stance is very clear that the agreement itself is not renegotiable. But they’re open to offer “assurances” regarding the Irish border backstop, and others. The results of the summit could continue to trigger volatility in the pound.

      Despite yesterday’s rebound, Sterling remains near term bearish. 1.2811 resistance in GBP/USD 144.02 resistance in GBP/JPY and 0.8931 support in EUR/GBP need to be taken out to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, more selloff is still in favor in the Pound.

      ECB policymakers push common fiscal responses from governments

        By
        ActionForex
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        ECB Governing Council Member Olli Rehn said that Eurozone is now at a “critical juncture” with the coronavirus pandemic. It is “essential for Eurozone governments to “get their acts together and agree to a coordinated European fiscal response.” “There’s a saying: never waste a crisis. Therefore it’s important that euro area governments agree at this critical moment on some kind of a safe asset that could provide sturdy support for financing,” he added.

        Another Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos also called for a common fiscal response using the European Stability Mechanism, the European Investment Bank, the EU’s common budget or other “risk sharing” tools. He urged, “greater ambition and coordination are not just an option; they are a necessity.”

        RBA stands pat, still not ruling anything in or out

          By
          ActionForex
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          RBA maintained its cash rate at 4.35% today, as expected, while underscoring that inflation risks remain a concern. In its statement, RBA noted that although headline inflation has declined and is projected to stay lower in the short term, it considers underlying inflation as “more indicative” of inflation trends, and this measure remains “too high.”

          In line with this cautious approach, the emphasized the need to remain “vigilant to upside risks to inflation,” signaling flexibility by reiterating that it is “not ruling anything in or out.” The ’s latest economic projections offer a more tempered outlook, with slight downward adjustments to growth and inflation forecasts, pointing to persistent caution amid moderated expectations.

          Key revisions in the RBA’s projections include:

          • Year-average GDP growth: 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, but lowered for 2025 from 2.5% to 2.2% and for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.3%.
          • Year-ended CPI: Forecast for December 2024 is revised down from 3.0% to 2.6%, with December 2025 held steady at 3.7%, and December 2026 slightly reduced from 2.6% to 2.5%.
          • Trimmed mean inflation: Forecast for December 2024 lowered from 3.5% to 3.4%, with additional downgrade for December 2025 from 2.9% to 2.8%, and December 2026 from 2.6% to 2.5%.

          These adjustments reflect an outlook of moderated economic growth and slightly eased inflation pressures. However, RBA’s flexible stance indicates it is prepared to act if inflation risks become more pronounced, balancing economic stability with its inflation objectives.

          Full RBA statement here.

          Full RBA SoMP here.

          BoE Haldane: Two roundtables underline very different lived experience facing people

            By
            ActionForex
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            BoE chief economist Andy Haldane said the mood at the two virtual roundtables with North east businesses and organizations “could not have been more different, underlining the very different lived experience facing people.”

            On the one hand, he had “surprisingly – and encouragingly – upbeat discussion with representatives from the housing industry, from the private and social sectors and some local mortgage lenders”. But his optimism was “tempered” at the roundtable with charity sector and community leaders. There’s been a “huge hit” to the financial health of charities, and their finances are being “stretched.”

            Full article here.

            RBNZ Hawkesby: Next rate move depends on global environment

              By
              ActionForex
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              RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in an interview that, after yesterday’s 50bps rate cut, “we’ve got a more balanced outlook for the OCR now”. However, he added, “even within those projections there’s some probability in there that we will need to reduce the OCR from where it is at the moment.”

              Hawkesby explained that markets have already priced in a smaller 25bps before yesterday’s announce. And the New Zealand Dollar faced downward pressure after the decision, which could give an extra boost to exports. He added “it’s all part of the story of us getting back to our targets.” He hoped that the larger cut could help avoid further policy easing. But RBNA is “complete” open to use negative interest rates and other unconventional tools if necessary.

              The main consideration for any next move is on global outlook. He said, “the obvious one is the global environment where we feel like the risks are tilted to the downside, and that was one of the factors that prompted us to ease with the 50 basis points this time around.”

              ECB Holzmann expressed criticism toward further monetary easing

                By
                ActionForex
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                New Austrian National Bank Governor and ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann set out his hawkish line over the weekend. He told broadcaster ORF that He’d “probably express more criticism toward proposals for future deepening of the monetary footprint.” He noted that “Cheap money has its charms but also its limits, especially when it lasts for a long time.”

                Holzmann also said the “probability of further effects” of monetary stimulus was “very slightly”. On the other hand, the short- or long-term risks associated “have risen to a great extent because low rates per se carry the risk of misallocation of resources and misallocation of price discovery.

                He added: “You see this in real estate prices, in gold prices and in erratic stock prices. The long-term effects could be very negative for Europe and the world.”

                RBA’s Hauser: Post-tariff China outlook positive but incomplete

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  In a speech focused on his recent visit to China following the sweeping tariff shifts of “Liberation Day”, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted there was a sense of “strong hand” in managing the economic fallout from US-imposed tariffs. Additionally, Australian firms operating in China perceived “opportunities amidst the risks”, as trade patterns began to shift.

                  However, Hauser was quick to stress that this view was inherently limited, anchored to a moment in time and shaped by a single national perspective.

                  Hauser laid out four key caveats. First, global tariff settings remain fluid, and data on their real-world economic effects is just beginning to emerge. Second, the assessments he heard may prove overly optimistic, domestic stimulus in China may underperform, and public tolerance for economic pain may be lower than expected.

                  Third, indirect “general equilibrium” effects could emerge, including the possibility of intensified competition from Chinese firms offloading excess supply originally intended for US markets. While sectoral overlap with Australia is limited, it is a concern shared across the Asia-Pacific region.

                  Finally, Hauser acknowledged the broader strategic uncertainties at play—factors beyond economics that could shape Australia’s position.

                  Full speech of RBA’s Hauser here.

                  UK Johnson: Conservative majority can get Brexit done

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to speak to business leaders at the CBI’s annual conference in a bid in the election campaign. According to advance extracts, he will say “with a Conservative majority government you can be sure we will Get Brexit Done and leave with the new deal that is already agreed – ending the uncertainty and confusion that has paralyzed our economy,

                    Johnson will also said “Britain stuck in gridlock and our economy stuck in first gear. Extension to extension. Marching business up to the top of the hill, only to march them down again.”

                    NZ BNZ services rises to 52.1, springs back to growth

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 48.8 to 52.1 in January, marking its highest peak since May 2023. This rebound places the sector back into expansion, albeit slightly below long-term average of 53.4.

                      Components of the PSI showed notable improvements: activity/sales surged to 53.0 from 47.2, employment edged up to 48.1 from 47.2, new orders/business increased to 51.8 from 50.8, and stocks/inventories rose to 53.5 from 51.7. However, a decrease in supplier deliveries to 48.7 from 50.3 hints at logistical challenges.

                      Reflecting on the sector’s performance, BusinessNZ’s chief executive, Kirk Hope, remarked on the “seesaw” trend between expansion and contraction observed in recent months. He highlighted that the sector’s sustained recovery hinges on “continued momentum” in business activity and new orders, coupled with alleviation in “cost of living” pressures.

                      BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel provided an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the combined PMI and PSI activity indicator hints that “annual GDP growth will soon turn positive.” Yet Steel cautioned that further progress is essential to mitigate growing spare capacity within the economy.

                      Full NZ BNZ PSI release here.

                      Japan’s nominal labor earnings rise 2.1% yoy, real wages still declining

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Japan’s nominal labor cash earnings increased by 2.1% yoy in April, surpassing the expected 1.7% and marking the 28th consecutive month of growth. Excluding bonuses and nonscheduled payments, average wages climbed by 2.3% yoy. However, overtime and other allowances were down by -0.6% yoy.

                        Despite the rise in nominal wages, real wages fell by -0.7% yoy, continuing a 25-month streak of declines, the longest on record. Nonetheless, the rate of decline was smaller than the revised -2.1% yoy drop in March, as many major companies implemented salary increases during the latest spring annual wage negotiations.

                        RBA cuts rate to 0.25%, starts government bond purchases

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          RBA announces a package of coronavirus response today. Firstly, cash rate is cut by 25bps to 0.25%. Additionally, the central bank will start purchases of government bonds to keep 3 year yield at around 0.25%, starting tomorrow. A three-year funding facility will also be set up to provide credit support to small and medium-sized businesses. Lastly, exchange settlement balances will be remunerated at 10 basis points, instead of zero.

                          The central said, “the various elements of this package reinforce one another and will help to lower funding costs across the economy and support the provision of credit, especially to small and medium-sized businesses.” “Today’s policy package from the Reserve Bank complements the welcome fiscal response from governments in Australia. Together, these measures will support jobs, incomes and businesses through this difficult period and they will also assist the Australian economy in the recovery.”

                          Full statement here.

                          US Empire State manufacturing rose to 17.2, but 6-month outlook dropped to 38.4

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 17.2 in July, up from -0.2, above expectation of 7.85. It’s also the first positive reading since February. However, six-months ahead business conditions dropped -18.1 pts to 38.4, down from 56.5.

                            The indexes for future new orders and future shipments fell somewhat, but remained near 40. The index for future employment rose to 21.1, suggesting firms expect to increase employment in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index rose to 9.1, a sign that firms, on net, planned to increase capital spending.

                            Full release here.

                            Eurozone CPI falls to 2.2% in Mar, core down to 2.4%

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Eurozone headline CPI eased slightly from 2.3% yoy to 2.2% yoy in March, in line with expectations. CPI Core (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) dropped from 2.6% yoy to 2.4% yoy, undershooting forecasts of 2.5% yoy.

                              Looking at the composition, services remained the main driver despite moderating to 3.4% from 3.7%. Food, alcohol, and tobacco edged up to 2.9% from 2.7%. Non-energy industrial goods stayed stable at 0.6%, while energy slipped further into deflationary territory at -0.7%.

                              Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

                              Australia AiG construction dropped to 40, 15th straight month of contraction

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index dropped to 40.0 in November, down from 43.9. The result indicates sharper decline in the construction industry on aggregate. It’s also the 15th straight month of contractionary reading. As AiG said, “this on-going weakness in business conditions was associated with a steeper fall in employment and a continued reduction in deliveries from suppliers.”

                                Full release here.

                                NZ ANZ business confidence dropped to -57.1, strain showing for businesses

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped from -42.7 to -57.1 in November. Looking at some details, own activity outlook dropped from -2.5 to -13.7, just 8 pts shy of 2009 lows. Export intentions dropped from -4.3 to -5.4. Investment intentions dropped from 1.1 to -8.1. Employment intentions dropped from 5.0 to -4.0. Pricing intentions dropped from 64.5 to 58.5. Cost expectations ticked up from 88.6 to 88.7. Inflation expectations rose from 6.13 to 6.39.

                                  ANZ said, “The strain is showing for kiwi businesses. Cost increases remain relentless and margins are squeezed, firms are chronically understaffed, and they’re waiting for the hammer to fall as the impact of relentless monetary policy tightening eventually kicks in. There are a lot of dark clouds on the horizon, and this month’s survey reflects that.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Into US session, Yen selling stays, Euro buying emerges

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Yen is staying as the weakest currency for today and selling intensifies entering into European. Meanwhile, Euro is also showing much resilience. And buying also emerges at during the 4 hour period.

                                    Australia’s retail sales stagnate in Jul as spending momentum stalls

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Australia’s retail sales turnover for July showed no growth on a monthly basis, falling short of the expected 0.2% mom increase. This flat result comes after consecutive 0.5% mom increases in both June and May, driven by mid-year sales events.

                                      According to Ben Dorber, head of retail statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, “After rises in the past two months boosted by mid-year sales activity, the higher level of retail turnover was maintained in July.”

                                      However, the detailed breakdown reveals a mixed picture across industries, with most sectors either seeing declines or remaining flat. The only industry to post an increase was food retailing, which managed a modest 0.2% rise.

                                      Full Australia retail sales release here.

                                      Australia jobs surge 89k in April, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Australia’s labor market delivered a strong upside surprise in April, with employment rising by 89k, sharply above expectations of 20.9k. Full-time jobs accounted for 59.5k of the gain, while part-time employment rose by 29.5k.

                                        Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts, as the surge in employment was matched by a jump in labor force participation from 66.8% to 67.1%.

                                        Despite the headline strength, hours worked were largely unchanged on the month. Nonetheless, the employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.3 percentage points to 64.4%, just shy of the record high reached in January.

                                        Full Australia employment release here.

                                        Fed’s Bostic eyes late 2024 for possible rate cut, remains focused on curbing inflation

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          In an interview with CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic emphasized that reigning in inflation remains a top priority, and the metric needs to approach the 2% mark before a rate cut can be seriously considered.

                                          “Inflation is job one, we have to get that under control,” Bostic asserted. But rate cut is possible next year and “I would say late 2024”, he added.

                                          “There’s still a lot of momentum in the economy. My outlook says that inflation is going to come down but it’s not going to like fall off a cliff,” he explained.

                                          “It’ll be sort of a progression that’s going to take some time. And so we’re going to have to be cautious, we’re going to have to be patient, but we’re going to have to be resolute,” added Bostic.

                                          In the context of a broader economic outlook, Bostic dismissed the possibility of a recession. He projected a slowdown in economic activity but remained optimistic about the economy’s resilience and the eventual return of inflation to the 2% target.

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