US Empire State Manufacturing dropped to -8.6, largest decline on record

    US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped by a record -26 pts to -8.6 in June. That’s much worse than expectation of 11. It’s also the first negative reading in more than two years. Looking at some details, new orders receded, while shipments increased modestly. Unfilled orders fell, and delivery times and inventories moved slightly lower. Labor market indicators pointed to small declines in employment and hours worked.

    Index for future business conditions dropped -5 pts to 25.7. capital expenditure index dropped -11 pts to 10.5, pointing to slower growth in capital spending. Firms expected solid increases in employment but no change in the average workweek in the months ahead.

    Full release here.

    Into US session: Euro higher in crosses in quiet markets

      Entering into US session, the forex markets are a bit mixed for the moment as more important events, like FOMC meeting, lie in the week again. Euro is lifted mildly by record wage growth in Q1. Though, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one for now. At the same time, Australian Dollar is the weakest for today so far, followed by Yen. Data from US and Canada are unlikely to trigger much reactions.

      Nevertheless, Euro crosses are worth a watch in the rest of the day. In particular, EUR/AUD’s strong rally in early US session suggests that recent rise might be extending after very brief consolidation since Thursday. 1.6363 temporary top is the level to watch. Also, EUR/GBP could also extend recent rally through last week’s high at 0.8932.

      In Europe, currently:

      • FTSE is down -0.16%.
      • DAX is down -0.03%.
      • CAC is up 0.22%.
      • German 10-year yield is up 0.0121 at -0.239.

      Earlier in Asia:

      • Nikkei rose 0.03%.
      • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.40%.
      • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.20%.
      • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.45%.
      • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.029 to -0.127.

      Eurozone labor costs rose 2.4%, wages grew record 2.5%

        Eurozone hourly labor costs rose 2.4% yoy in Q1, accelerated from 2.3% yoy in Q4, but missed expectation of 2.6% yoy. On of the main components, wages & salaries per hour rose 2.5% yoy, accelerated from 2.3%. That’s also the highest rise since record started in 2010. Another one, no-wage component rose 2.2% yoy, slowed from 2.4% yoy.

        Breaking down by economic activity, hourly labour costs rose by 2.5% in industry, by 2.3% in construction, by 2.4% in services and by 2.5% in the (mainly) non-business economy.

        EU28 hourly costs rose 2.6% yoy, slowed down from 2.8% yoy. Among the member states, the highest annual increases in hourly labour costs for the whole economy were registered in Romania (16.3%) and Bulgaria (12.9%), while the only decrease was recorded in Greece (-0.2%).

        Full release here.

        Bundesbank: Dichotomy in German economy will continue, GDP may shrink slightly in Q2

          Bundesbank said in the monthly report that “the German economy should shrink slightly in the spring”, referring to Q2. That’s because “special effects that contributed to a noticeable rise in gross domestic product in the first quarter are either expiring or being reversed.”

          The report added that Germany is facing headwinds from trade tensions, Brexit and slowdown in the global economy. These factors are weighing down on the export-led manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, “the buoyant forces underpinning the strong domestic-oriented sectors of the economy remain fundamentally intact”.

          Overall, “the dichotomy in the economy will continue.”

          Full report here.

          ECB Coeure: Tiering system may be needed if rate cuts is the way to go

            In a Financial Times interview, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said the Eurozone economy is not performing too badly for now, as supported by services and construction. However, signals from the financial markets, in particular from bonds, were “quite alarming”.

            He added ECB have different tools to use if outlook worsened. If cutting interest rates is the beat option, ECB would have to “consider the impact of negative rates on financial intermediation, especially for banks”. In that case, policymakers “would have to consider whether a tiering system is needed.” But he also emphasized that “today the prevailing view in the Governing Council is that it is not, but we also agree that it deserves further reflection.”

            On reviewing ECB’s inflation target, Coeure said “we have more urgent issues to face right now, but I’m pretty sure that we’ll do it at some point nevertheless.”

            BCC: Contraction in business investment to drag UK growth in 2020 and 2021

              The British Chambers of Commerce revised up 2019 UK growth forecast to 1.3% (from 1.2%), driven by the “exceptionally rapid stock-building” early in the year. However, 2020 growth forecast was downgraded notably to 1.0% (from 1.3%), 2021 downgraded to 1.2% (from 1.4%). In particular, business investment is forecast to contract -1.3% in 2019 before recovering slightly by 0.4% 2020.

              Adam Marshall, Director General of BCC noted: “Businesses are putting resources into contingency plans, such as stockpiling, rather than investing in ventures that would positively contribute to long-term economic growth. This is simply not sustainable”,

              Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at BCC said: “The deteriorating outlook for business investment is a key concern as it limits the UK’s productivity potential and long-term growth prospects…. A messy and disorderly exit from the EU remains the main downside risk to the UK’s economic outlook as the disruption caused would increase the likelihood of the UK’s weak growth trajectory translating into a more pronounced deterioration in economic conditions.”

              Full release here.

              ECB de Guindos: De-anchoring of inflation expectations needed before more monetary stimulus

                Over the weekend, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said current monetary policy is “fully compatible with both inflation and real activity.” And, “de-anchoring of inflation expectations” is needed before ECB ease monetary policy again.

                He told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that “what we need to see is a de-anchoring of inflation expectations” for more policy stimulus. However, “this has not yet happened, despite the fact that there has been a drop in market-based inflation expectations.” “If there is a further deterioration, then we will react,” de Guindos added. “But for now, our monetary policy stance is fully compatible with both inflation and real activity.”

                On the impact of global trade tensions, de Guindos said “you can certainly smooth the impact with monetary policy, but you will not be able to address and fix this kind of problems with monetary policy”.

                Separately, Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said it would be “reasonable” to have “some more flexibility” on inflation target. And, he was “in favor of keeping the 2 percent target but with a corridor of 0.5 or 1 percent, up or down. A precision landing is hardly possible.”

                US retail sales rose 0.5%, ex-auto sales rose 0.5%, EUR/USD dives

                  US retail sales rose 0.5% mom in May, below expectation of 0.7% mom. But ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. April’s headline sales was revised up from -0.2% mom to 0.3% mom. April’s ex-auto sales was also revised up from 0.1% mom to 0.5% mom.

                  Full release here.

                  EUR/USD breaks through 1.1251 minor support after the release. The development suggests that rebound from 1.1107 has completed at 1.1347. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.

                  ECB Draghi: Policy has neutral effect of bank profitability, lower-income households are main beneficiaries

                    ECB President Mario Draghi sent separate letters to four Members of the European Parliaments today, explaining the impact of the central bank’s monetary policy. There Draghi noted the “overall effect” of ECB’s monetary policy on bank profitability has so far been “broadly neutral”. The negative impact on banks’ net interest margins has been offset by an improvement in the economic outlook that has led to an “increase in the total volume of loans” and, moreover,” improved credit quality”, which has reduced provisioning costs. Though, he also pledged to carefully monitor the overall effects of negative interest rates.

                    Draghi also said lending to non-financial corporations (NFCs) “recovered significantly” since the ECB introduced its non-standard monetary policy measures. And overall, the non-standard measures “have contributed to a more uniform transmission of monetary policy to bank lending rates across euro area countries and firm sizes.”

                    Moreover, taking into account both financial and macroeconomic effects, ECB research finds that “lower-income households have been among the main beneficiaries of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures, through their positive impact on growth and employment creation.”

                    Gold breaks key resistance as up trend resumes finally

                      Gold finally resumes recent up trend by breaking through 1346.71 resistance decisively and reaches as high as 1358.16 so far. Further rise should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54 next. And in any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1319.95 support holds, in case of retreat.

                      More importantly, upside re-acceleration is seen in weekly MACD after drawing support from 55 week EMA. The development is rather medium term bullish. Rise from 1160.17 could indeed be resuming whole rise from 1046.37 (2015 low) as consolidation from 1375.17 completed with three waves to 1160.17. That is, we’d likely see decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36 finally. In that case, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1586.70 in medium to long term.

                      New Zealand Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2, lowest since 2012, downside risks accumulating

                        New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 in May, down from 52.7. Also, it’s the lowest reading since December 2012. BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the drop in activity to its lowest point in over six years was obviously a concern, especially when the sub-index values are examined.

                        She added: “Production (46.4) was at its lowest value since April 2012, while the other key sub-index of new orders (50.4) only just managed to stay in positive territory.  Given the latter feeds through into the former, it does not instil a strong belief that the sector will show solid improvement over the next few months”.

                        BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that “the PMI sends a warning signal for near term growth via its mix of falling production, near flat new orders, and rising inventory. Next week’s Q1 GDP should be reasonable, but beyond this downside risks are accumulating”.

                        Full release here.

                        661 US Companies and Associations urged Trump to avoid tariff escalation

                          In an open letter to Trump, 661 US Companies and Associations urged the administration to avoid tariff escalation with China. Instead, the administration should try to reach resolution with China on trade. The letter came as US Trade Representative is set to start hearings regarding 25% tariffs on USD 300B, essentially all untaxed, Chinese imports. The letter, lead by “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland” campaign,w as signed by 520 companies and 141 trade associations. .

                          “We remain concerned about the escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs,” the letter states. “We know firsthand that the additional tariffs will have a significant, negative and long-term impact on American businesses, farmers, families and the U.S. economy. Broadly applied tariffs are not an effective tool to change China’s unfair trade practices. Tariffs are taxes paid directly by U.S. companies, including those listed below – not China.”

                          “We urge your administration to get back to the negotiating table while working with our allies to develop global, enforceable solutions. An escalated trade war is not in the country’s best interest, and both sides will lose,” the companies and associations added.

                          Full letter and signers here.

                          Euro’s international role recovered in period of trade tensions and protracted slowdown

                            ECB said in a report that euro’s international role strengthened in 2018 and early 2019 reversing a declining trend in recent years. Share of Euro as global reserve currency rose 1.2% in 2018, up from 19.5% to 20.8%. The euro’s share in international debt issuance and international deposits also increased, together with its share in the value of outstanding international loans.

                            ECB President Mario Draghi said that the period was “characterized by growing concerns about the impact of international trade tensions, a protracted slowdown in global growth, reversals in cross-border capital flows and challenges to multilateralism, including the imposition of unilateral sanctions.:

                            “On balance, these developments, together with progress towards deepening Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), seem to have had a positive effect on the international use of the euro, which showed tentative signs of recovering from historic lows.”

                            Full report here.

                            White House said it looks like Trump is moving in that direction of meeting with Chinese Xi

                              White House spokesman Hogan Gidley was asked by Fox News Channel if Trump and Chinese President Xi will have a sideline meeting at G20 summit in Osaka. He didn’t answer directly and said “it looks like we’re moving in that direction.”

                              Trump said yesterday he has “no deadline” for the trade negotiations with China. But he emphasized that “I would never take something that would be less than what we already had”. He reiterated he had very good relationship with Xi, just “a little bit testy right now”.

                              US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 222k, import price dropped -0.3% mom

                                US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 222k in the week ending June 8, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 217.75k. Continuing claims rose 2 to 1.69M.

                                US import price index dropped -0.3% mom in May, matched expectations.

                                Also release, Canada new housing price index rose 0.0% mom in April, matched expectations.

                                Into US session: AUD stays weakest on RBA cut bets, CAD rebounds with oil

                                  Entering into US session, Australian Dollar remains the weakest one for today weak details in May job data suggests that considerable slack remains in the Australian labor market and affirms the case for more RBA rate cut later this year. For now, New Zealand Dollar is the second weakest.

                                  On the other hand, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc are the strongest ones so far. WTI crude oil rebounds strongly ahead of 50.64 support. There are reports that two oil tankers had been attacked in the Gulf of Oman, with fresh tensions in that region potentially posing a threat to global supplies. SNB kept policy rate unchanged at -0.75% and reiterated the readiness for currency intervention. Franc and Yen are lifted by mild risk aversion.

                                  In Europe, currently:

                                  • FTSE is up 0.09%.
                                  • DAX is up 0.39%.
                                  • CAC is down -0.02%.
                                  • German 10-year yield is down -0.005 at -0.241.

                                  Earlier in Asia:

                                  • Nikkei dropped -0.46%.
                                  • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.05%.
                                  • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%.
                                  • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.40%.
                                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0004 to -0.111.

                                  Italy Tria insists no additional measures needed on budget

                                    Ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria insisted that no additional measures are needed over its budget. But Italy can still seek a deal with EU to avoid the excessive deficit procedures. He said “we will explain we will reach our targets over deficit… we don’t need additional measures, (but if needed) we will adopt them”. And what will happen at the Eurozone finance minister meeting by July 9 is that ” we will seek a deal.”

                                    Eurogroup President Mario Centeno warned that reducing Italy’s debt “is of utmost importance for growth, for the stability of the euro zone.” And, what he expected to hear from Tria was “that the targets that were committed by the Italian government at the end of last year are achieved”.

                                    European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis reiterated that “substantial corrections” is needed in Italy’s budget to meet fiscal targets for 2019 agreed with the European Commission last December.

                                    Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5% in April

                                      Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5% mom in April, in line with expectation. in EU28, industrial production dropped -0.7% mom.

                                      Among the main industrial groups, in Eurozone, production of durable consumer goods fell by -1.7%, capital goods by -1.4% and intermediate goods by -1.0%. Production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.2% and energy by 1.4%.

                                      Full release here.

                                      German government: Subdued economy with first signs of labor market slowdown

                                        German Federal Ministry of Economy and Energy said the economy will “remain subdued for the time being”. And data indicates continuation of “two-part development” as services support growth but manufacturing is in decline. Meanwhile, there are also two parts in manufacturing, paralyzing industry and booming construction.

                                        The ministry also noted “the first signs of the economic slowdown are evident in the labor market: employment continues to grow, but the lower momentum is solidifying. Unemployment increased in May, not just because of special factors.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Swiss SECO raised 2019 growth forecasts to 1.2%, still below average

                                          Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs expects growth to remain “below average” this year on subdued outlook and high uncertainty. But growth forecasts for 2019 was revised slightly up to 1.2%, from 1.1%. For 2020, growth projection was kept unchanged at 1.7%.

                                          SECO noted that “declining momentum in the international economy, the development of world trade is weak and demand for Swiss products is flattening out, slowing down the export economy.” And, “downside risks continue to predominate for the global economy”.

                                          It warned that with the recent tariff increases between US and China, the trade dispute has taken an “unfavourable turn”. Swiss economy would “cool off more strongly” if situation were to intensify further, particularly if EU and Germany were to be significantly affected. Meanwhile, “political uncertainty remains high in Europe”, including Brexit and Italy.

                                          Full release here.