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US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 222k, import price dropped -0.3% mom

    By
    ActionForex
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    US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 222k in the week ending June 8, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 217.75k. Continuing claims rose 2 to 1.69M.

    US import price index dropped -0.3% mom in May, matched expectations.

    Also release, Canada new housing price index rose 0.0% mom in April, matched expectations.

    Into US session: AUD stays weakest on RBA cut bets, CAD rebounds with oil

      By
      ActionForex
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      Entering into US session, Australian Dollar remains the weakest one for today weak details in May job data suggests that considerable slack remains in the Australian labor market and affirms the case for more RBA rate cut later this year. For now, New Zealand Dollar is the second weakest.

      On the other hand, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc are the strongest ones so far. WTI crude oil rebounds strongly ahead of 50.64 support. There are reports that two oil tankers had been attacked in the Gulf of Oman, with fresh tensions in that region potentially posing a threat to global supplies. SNB kept policy rate unchanged at -0.75% and reiterated the readiness for currency intervention. Franc and Yen are lifted by mild risk aversion.

      In Europe, currently:

      • FTSE is up 0.09%.
      • DAX is up 0.39%.
      • CAC is down -0.02%.
      • German 10-year yield is down -0.005 at -0.241.

      Earlier in Asia:

      • Nikkei dropped -0.46%.
      • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.05%.
      • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%.
      • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.40%.
      • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0004 to -0.111.

      Italy Tria insists no additional measures needed on budget

        By
        ActionForex
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        Ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria insisted that no additional measures are needed over its budget. But Italy can still seek a deal with EU to avoid the excessive deficit procedures. He said “we will explain we will reach our targets over deficit… we don’t need additional measures, (but if needed) we will adopt them”. And what will happen at the Eurozone finance minister meeting by July 9 is that ” we will seek a deal.”

        Eurogroup President Mario Centeno warned that reducing Italy’s debt “is of utmost importance for growth, for the stability of the euro zone.” And, what he expected to hear from Tria was “that the targets that were committed by the Italian government at the end of last year are achieved”.

        European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis reiterated that “substantial corrections” is needed in Italy’s budget to meet fiscal targets for 2019 agreed with the European Commission last December.

        Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5% in April

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5% mom in April, in line with expectation. in EU28, industrial production dropped -0.7% mom.

          Among the main industrial groups, in Eurozone, production of durable consumer goods fell by -1.7%, capital goods by -1.4% and intermediate goods by -1.0%. Production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.2% and energy by 1.4%.

          Full release here.

          German government: Subdued economy with first signs of labor market slowdown

            By
            ActionForex
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            German Federal Ministry of Economy and Energy said the economy will “remain subdued for the time being”. And data indicates continuation of “two-part development” as services support growth but manufacturing is in decline. Meanwhile, there are also two parts in manufacturing, paralyzing industry and booming construction.

            The ministry also noted “the first signs of the economic slowdown are evident in the labor market: employment continues to grow, but the lower momentum is solidifying. Unemployment increased in May, not just because of special factors.”

            Full release here.

            Swiss SECO raised 2019 growth forecasts to 1.2%, still below average

              By
              ActionForex
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              Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs expects growth to remain “below average” this year on subdued outlook and high uncertainty. But growth forecasts for 2019 was revised slightly up to 1.2%, from 1.1%. For 2020, growth projection was kept unchanged at 1.7%.

              SECO noted that “declining momentum in the international economy, the development of world trade is weak and demand for Swiss products is flattening out, slowing down the export economy.” And, “downside risks continue to predominate for the global economy”.

              It warned that with the recent tariff increases between US and China, the trade dispute has taken an “unfavourable turn”. Swiss economy would “cool off more strongly” if situation were to intensify further, particularly if EU and Germany were to be significantly affected. Meanwhile, “political uncertainty remains high in Europe”, including Brexit and Italy.

              Full release here.

              SNB Jordan: Swiss Franc and Yen appreciated as safe havens as US-China trade tensions escalated

                By
                ActionForex
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                In the post meeting press conference, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan noted that “when the trade dispute between the US and China escalated again in May, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen appreciated” as safe havens. And, “in light of the high valuation of the franc and the fragility of the situation, our willingness to intervene remains necessary, as does the negative interest rate.

                Jordan also, noted decline in long term rates in US, Swiss and Eurozone since December meeting. And, “the global decline in long-term interest rates reflects the heightened risks. Inflation expectations in Swiss “declined slightly” but “remain within the range of 0% to 2% that we equate with price stability.”

                Full remarks here.

                SNB kept policy rate at -0.75%, global risks more pronounced

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  SNB left Sight Deposit rate unchanged at -0.75% as widely expected and changed the name to SNB policy rate . SNB will also “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”. The central bank noted that expansionary monetary policy “remains necessary” against the backdrop of the current price and economic developments”. Franc’s exchange rate is “somewhat stronger” than in March and is “still highly valued”. Current markets “continues to be fragile”.

                  Also signs from global economy “remain mixed”. But SNB expect global growth to “remain in line with potential”. Risks are “still to the downside” and are “more pronounced” than at March meeting. “Chief among them are political uncertainty and trade tensions, which could lead to renewed turbulence on the financial markets and a further dampening of economic sentiment.” Swiss growth “gathered momentum” at the beginning of 2019 with “positive” labor market development and “well utilized” production capacity. Momentum remains “favorable” for 1.5% growth in 2019.

                  In the new economic projection, SNB raised 2019 inflation forecast to 0.6%, up from 0.3%. 2020 inflation forecast was raised to 0.7%, down from 0.6%. But for 2021, inflation forecast was lowered to 1.1%, down from 1.2%.

                  Full statement here.

                  Australia unemployment rate unchanged at 5.2%, AUD/JPY downside breakout

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Australia employment rose 42.3k in May, well over expectation of 16.0k. However, the growth was mainly driven by 39.8k addition in part-time jobs. Full-employment rose merely 2.4k. Monthly hours worked in all jobs also decreased by -0.3%. Unemployment rate was steady at 5.2% , above expectation of 5.1%. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 66.0%.

                    In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increase in employment was in New South Wales (up 38.5k), followed by Victoria (up 28.6k) and Queensland (up 7.8k). The only decreases were in Western Australia (down -4.0k) and Tasmania (down -0.4k).

                    The data suggests that there is still considerable slack in the labor market. According to recent comments from RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis, unemployment could need to be pushed down to as low as 4.5% before material uplift in wage pressure and inflation. There’s still a long way to go for the central bank, which is on track for more rate cuts this year.

                    AUD/USD drops sharply today, reaffirming the case that corrective recovery from 0.6864 has completed at 0.7022. Retest of 0.6864 should be seen next and break will resume larger decline from 0.7295.

                    AUD/USD’s break of 74.96 support confirms resumption of decline from 80.71. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 76.01 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 70.27 to 80.71 at 74.25. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 70.27 flash crash low.

                    UK RICS house price balance rose to -10, but anecdotal insight shows political and economic concerns

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      UK RICS House Price Balance improved to -10 in May, up from -22. That is, 10% more respondents saw a fall rather than rise in May. This would indicate a deceleration in the pace of price declines in six months time.

                      Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: “Some comfort can be drawn from the results of the latest RICS survey as it suggests that the housing market in aggregate may be steading. However much of the anecdotal insight provided by respondents is still quite cautious, reflecting concerns about both the underlying political and economic climate.”

                      Full release here.

                       

                      Fed will hold interest rates this year according to consensus of a Reuters poll

                        By
                        ActionForex
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                        According to a Reuters poll in June 7-12 period over 100 economists, consensus is that Fed will hold interest rates at current 2.25-2.50% this year. However, median from a smaller sample showed 55% of one Fed cut this year, 40% for two. The median chance of a recession in the next 12 months increased slightly by 5% to 30%. But the range from 10% to 80% is huge. For the next two years, median chance stood at 40%, with range from 10% to 90%.

                        Opinions are divided as some point out that concerns are mainly on the risks to economic outlook, rather than the outlook. And the risks and uncertainty could turn out to be a lot weaker. Fed’s decision remain data dependent and some strong numbers could push out a possible July rate cut. Meanwhile Fed could resume rate hikes next year should the risks not materialize.

                        However, the probability of a recession has risen due to trade tensions. The next round of tariffs against China is the “big, big concern”. Some expected recession in second half of 2020 and an insurance rate cut by Fed is seen as not enough in this case. Fed could be forced to start a full blown cutting cycle next year.

                        Chinese officials delivered bullish comments, but interest rate and RRR cut said to be underway

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          At a financial forum in Shanghai, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said there are plenty of policy tools to use to deal with the challenges the economy is facing. He also sounded confidence and said major macroeconomic indicators all remain within reasonable ranges. Meanwhile, China will roll out more strong measures on reforms in the near future.

                          In the same forum, Pan Gongsheng, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said the country’s FX market is largely stable with FX reserves steadily rising. And, China is capable and confident of keeping its currency basically stable. Guo Shuqing, head of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) reiterated there are plans to further open up its banking securities and insurance sectors.

                          Separately, the official China Daily said that more money and credit supply adjustment are under way to counter the downside risks of trade war. Measures could include cuts in interest rates or reserve ratio requirements. The newspaper noted the near for stronger measures to maintain liquidity in the financial market and support infrastructure investment

                          US oil inventories rose 2.2M barrels, WTI heading back to 50.64 support

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US commercial crude oil inventories rose 2.2M barrels in the week ending June 7, above expectation of -1.0M barrels fall. At 485.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. WTI crude oil weakens mildly after the release.

                            Prior recovery from 50.64 was limited at 54.68 and failed to sustain above 54.61 minor resistance. It’s also staying below falling 4 hour 55 EMA. Near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is still expected. Break of 50.64 and sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 42.05 to 66.49 at 51.38 could pave the way to retest 42.05 low.

                            US CPI slowed to 1.8%, core CPI to 2.0%, but Dollar shrugs

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              US CPI rose 0.1% mom in May while core CPI rose 0.1% mom. Annually, headline CPI slowed to 1.8% yoy, down from 2.0% yoy and missed expectation of 1.9% yoy. Core CPI slowed to 2.0% yoy, down from 2.1% yoy and missed expectation of 2.1% yoy.

                              Full release here.

                              EUR/USD spikes higher after the release but is quickly under pressure again. Deeper fall could be seen towards 1.1251 minor support. But for now, there is no confirmation of short term topping yet with 1.1251 support intact. Rise from 1.1107 could still extend higher through 1.1347.

                              EU Moscovici wants credible path from Italy

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici said the ball is in “Italy’s court” regarding the country’s excessive budget that could lead to disciplinary procedure. He added, “We need to see a credible path for 2019 as well as 2020. We stand ready to take into account any new elements that Italy may put forward, but let’s not waste time.”

                                On the other hand, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvin said “we’re not asking Europe for money … what we ask for is to be able to cut taxes for Italians… We definitely won’t introduce new taxes, we won’t increase the value added tax, we won’t introduce a wealth tax, we won’t touch Italians’ bank savings… We want to free up resources”.

                                EU said no-deal Brexit very much remains a possible, although undesirable, outcome

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  European Commission warned in a statement released today that “In light of the continued uncertainty in the United Kingdom regarding the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement – as agreed with the UK government in November 2018 – and the overall domestic political situation, a ‘no-deal’ scenario on 1 November 2019 very much remains a possible, although undesirable, outcome.

                                  The Commission said it has screened all the no-deal preparation measures. And it “concluded that there is no need to amend any measures on substance and that they remain fit for purpose. The Commission does not plan any new measures ahead of the new withdrawal date. ”

                                  Full statement here.

                                  ECB Draghi: CEE economies disproportionately affected by global trade headwinds

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    ECB President Mario Draghi said in a speech that “general slowdown is being felt in all economies in the region. The so called “central and eastern European (CEE) economies” model has become “vulnerable to shocks to international trade and financial conditions”.

                                    He added that “global trade has faced headwinds in recent years as trade-restrictive measures have outpaced liberalizing measures.” CEE economies have been “disproportionately affected” by this for two reasons. Firstly, trade in CEE economies is “especially responsive cyclical developments”, with “trade elasticity” higher than the rest of EU. Secondly, they have “increasingly specialised in certain industries: which made the “more exposed to industry-specific shocks.”

                                    Full speech here.

                                    ECB de Galhau: ECB can do more if slowdown becomes a real slamming of the brakes

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      ECB Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said as inflation falls short of the central bank’s target, monetary policy must be kept “active and accommodative”.

                                      Also, “if the current slowdown becomes a real slamming of the brakes, we can do more than we are doing currently”. However, he also warned that “they can temporarily attenuate the consequences of a weaker global economy, but they cannot take care of the cause.” De Galhau referred to uncertainty created by trade tensions.

                                      Gold’s retreat contained by 1319.9 support, maintains bullish outlook

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Gold failed to sustain above 1346.71 and retreated from 1348.22. But downside was contained by 1319.98 support and gold recovered. Near term bullish outlook is maintained. That is, correction from 1346.7 has completed at 1266.26 already. And rise from there is resuming whole rally from 1160.17. Break of 1348.22 will target 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54. However, break of 1319.98 support, will probably extend the consolidation from 1346.71 with another decline.

                                        Also, in the bigger picture, 1381.54 is very close to long term fibonacci resistance of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36. Prior strong support from 55 week EMA is taken as a rather bullish signal. That raises the chance that gold would finally overcome this fib resistance after multiple attempts over the last few years.

                                        RBA rate cuts failed to lift consumer sentiments, AUD/JPY vulnerable

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped -0.6 to 100.7 in June. Westpac noted that it’s a “disappointing result” given the RBA’s rate cut on June 4. Also, the results suggests “deepening concerns about the economy have outweighed the initial boost from lower rates. ” Looking at some details, economic expectations for the next 12 months dropped -4.7 to slightly pessimistic territory at 99.3. Though, House Price Expectations Index rose notably by 22.7 to 109.7, in clear response to the rate cut.

                                          Westpac also said “initial sentiment reaction to the June rate cut will be somewhat disappointing for the Bank”. After disappointing Q1 GDP, RBA will need to “make a further downgrade to its growth forecasts”. And “the case for further policy easing remains clear”. Westpac expects another 25bps cut in August.

                                          Full release here.

                                          AUD/JPY is staying in consolidations above 74.96 temporary low for looks vulnerable For now, further decline is expected as long as 76.39 minor resistance holds. Break of 74.96 will resume the fall form 80.71.

                                           

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