Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped -0.6 to 100.7 in June. Westpac noted that it’s a “disappointing result” given the RBA’s rate cut on June 4. Also, the results suggests “deepening concerns about the economy have outweighed the initial boost from lower rates. ” Looking at some details, economic expectations for the next 12 months dropped -4.7 to slightly pessimistic territory at 99.3. Though, House Price Expectations Index rose notably by 22.7 to 109.7, in clear response to the rate cut.
Westpac also said “initial sentiment reaction to the June rate cut will be somewhat disappointing for the Bank”. After disappointing Q1 GDP, RBA will need to “make a further downgrade to its growth forecasts”. And “the case for further policy easing remains clear”. Westpac expects another 25bps cut in August.
AUD/JPY is staying in consolidations above 74.96 temporary low for looks vulnerable For now, further decline is expected as long as 76.39 minor resistance holds. Break of 74.96 will resume the fall form 80.71.
Gold’s retreat contained by 1319.9 support, maintains bullish outlook
Gold failed to sustain above 1346.71 and retreated from 1348.22. But downside was contained by 1319.98 support and gold recovered. Near term bullish outlook is maintained. That is, correction from 1346.7 has completed at 1266.26 already. And rise from there is resuming whole rally from 1160.17. Break of 1348.22 will target 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54. However, break of 1319.98 support, will probably extend the consolidation from 1346.71 with another decline.
Also, in the bigger picture, 1381.54 is very close to long term fibonacci resistance of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36. Prior strong support from 55 week EMA is taken as a rather bullish signal. That raises the chance that gold would finally overcome this fib resistance after multiple attempts over the last few years.