WTI hits 51.38 fib level as oil inventories rose 6.8M barrels

    WTI crude oil drops sharply as US commercial crude oil inventories surprisingly rose 6.8M barrels in the week ending May 31. That’s way above expectation of -1.7M barrels decline. Now at 483.3M barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 6% above five year average for this time of the year.

    WTI’s fall from 66.49 resumes and hits as low as 51.25. It’s now pressing 61.8% retracement of 42.05 to 66.49 at 51.38. Further decline will now remain in favor as long as 54.61 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 51.38 could pave the way to retest 42.05 low.

    US ISM services rose to 56.9, employment jumped 4.4 to 58.1

      US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 56.9 in May, up from 55.5 and beat expectation of 55.5. Looking at some details, Business Activity rose 1.7 to 61.2. New Orders rose 0.5 to 58.6. Employment was strong, up 4.4 to 58.1. Prices dropped -0.3 to 55.4.

      ISM noted: “The non-manufacturing sector continues to experience a slight uptick in business activity, but it is still leveling off overall. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about tariffs and employment resources.”

      Full release here.

      Fed officials open to rate cut to counter risks of trade tensions

        More Fed officials speak today. While they generally sound non-committal to a rate cut, they are all open to, if trade tensions worsen.

        Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said it’s “early to make a judgement” on rate cut. But he noted “we’re going to be very vigilant in understanding these heightened trade tensions. See if they feed through to the economy. Most importantly, see if they persist.”

        Fed Governor Lael Brainard told Yahoo Finance that “we’ll be prepared to adjust policy to sustain the expansion.” And “trade policy is definitely a downside risk to the economy. And our job is to sustain the expansion, and we’ll need to see going forward what that means for policy.”

        Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told Bloomberg TV that he’s “a little nervous about the low inflation rate”. And, “that by itself could be a reason for a little more accommodation.”

        White House Navarro insists Mexico should share their responsibility and take asylum seekers

          Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard will meet US Vice President Mike Pence at 1900 GMT today on the issue of tariffs and migration flow. The Mexican delegation is expected to use their every efforts to convince the US to avert the tariffs that Trump threatened to impose starting on June 10.

          Ahead of the meeting White House economic adviser Peter Navarro said that it’s important to get the US-Mexico border issue solved. And he insisted that the Mexican government must bear their share of the responsibility. And the most important thing is for the Mexican government to take the asylum seekers.

          US ADP employment rose 27k only, small businesses lost jobs

            US ADP report shows only 27k private sector job growth in May, way below expectation of 185k. Looking at the details, small businesses lose -52k job, offsetting 11k growth in medium business and 68k in large businesses. Goods producing sectors lost -43k jobs, while service-providing sector gained 71k.

            “Following an overly strong April, May marked the smallest gain since the expansion began,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Large companies continue to remain strong as they are better equipped to compete for labor in a tight labor market.”

            Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is moderating. Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers are hurting.”

            Full release here.

            Into US session: Yen weakest as risk-on continues, German yield hits another record low

              Global stock markets are generally in risk-on mode today, riding on speculation of Fed rate cut. As Chair Jerome Powell indicated his openness on the topic yesterday, an insurance cut could come as soon as in September if US trade wars, with China and others, escalate. However, it’s also pointed out that Powell just said Fed would “act as appropriate” only, without specifically talking about a cut. Impacts of trade wars could be rather complicated, in particular if Mexico is dragged into it. Trump could claim China subsidizes its products so there is no lift in inflation. But it’s unsure if he thinks Mexico will do the same.

              Anyway, entering into US session, Yen is the weakest one for today despite falling treasury yields. German 10-year bund yield has indeed hit another record low at -0.226. Australian Dollar is the second weakest one, followed by Sterling. New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one, followed by Euro. A lot of key events lie ahead, including ADP, ISM services, ECB tomorrow, and job data from US and Canada on Friday. A rough ride ahead is likely.

              In Europe, currently:

              • FTSE is up 0.49%.
              • DAX is up 0.36%.
              • CAC is up 0.56%.
              • German 10-year yield is down -0.0108 at -0.217.

              Earlier in Asia:

              • Nikkei rose 1.80%.
              • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.50%.
              • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.03%.
              • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.61%.
              • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0249 to -0.126

              EU Dombrovskis: EDP on Italy is not just about procedure

                European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said the Commission concluded that Italy’s debt criterion is not complied with and there fore a “debt-based excessive deficit procedure (EDP) is warranted”. EDP is not opened today yet. And EU member states will give their views on the report on Italy first. Then, economic and financial committee has two weeks to form its opinion. He added “it’s much more than just about the procedure, when we look at the Italian economy we see the damage that recent policy choices are doing.”

                The Commission estimated that Italy used EUR 2.2B more than expected to service its debt in 2018. And it’s paying as much toward its debt servicing as it does toward its entire education system. Dombrovskis added “growth has come to almost a halt … and we now expect the Italian debt (to GDP) ratio to rise in 2019 and 2020 to over 135%.”

                Earlier today, coalition League’s economic chief Claudio Borghi rejects fiscal tightening measures and warned that Economy Minister Giovanni Tria must take a “hard line on EU budget talks”.

                Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.4% mom, PPI slowed to 2.6% yoy

                  Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.4% mom in April, slightly better than expectation of -0.5% mom. Volume of retail trade decreased by 0.4% for food, drinks and tobacco and for non-food products, while automotive fuel increased by 0.1%. EU28 retail sales dropped -0.3% mom. In EU, volume decreased by 0.4% for non-food products and by 0.2% for food, drinks and tobacco and for automotive fuel.

                  Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Germany (-2.0%), Portugal (-1.0%) and Croatia (-0.9%). The highest increases were observed in Sweden (+2.4%), Slovenia (+2.0%) and Malta (+1.7%).

                  Eurozone PPI came in at -0.3% mom, 2.6% yoy in April, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 3.1% yoy. EU 28 PPI was at -0.1% mom, 2.9% yoy.

                  The largest monthly decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (-1.7%), Italy (-1.5%) and Sweden (-0.8%), while the highest increases were observed in Denmark and Greece (both +1.2%), and Hungary (+0.9%).

                  Annually, the highest increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Romania (+6.7%), Hungary (+6.5%) and Latvia (+5.6%), while there were no decreases observed.

                  IMF lowered China growth forecast on trade tensions, but no additional policy stimulus needed yet

                    IMF lowered growth forecast for China in 2019 to 6.2% (down from 6.3%). For 2020, growth forecast was cut to 6.0% (down from 6.1%). The IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director, David Lipton, noted that the economy stabilized in early 2019 reflecting a wide range of policy support. However, “renewed trade tensions” is a “significant course of uncertainty” that weighs on sentiment.

                    However, IMF noted that “policy stimulus announced so far is sufficient to stabilize growth in 2019/20 despite the recent US tariff hike. ” And “no additional policy easing is needed” for the moment, provided there are no further increases in tariffs or a significant slowdown in growth. However, if trade tensions escalate further, “some additional policy easing would be warranted.

                    Full statement here.

                    UK PMI services rose to 51.0, but pace of expansion remained disappointingly muted

                      UK PMI services rose to 51.0 in May, up from 50.4 and beat expectation of 50.6. Markit noted there was modest increase in business activity. New work rises for the first time since December 2018. But there was slowest rise in input costs for 12 months. All Sector PMI Index dropped to 0.7, down from 50.9. A sharp slowdown in manufacturing production growth and lower construction output more than offset an improvement in service sector business activity.

                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                      “Although service sector business activity gained a little momentum in May, with growth reaching a three-month high, the pace of expansion remained disappointingly muted and failed to offset a marked deterioration in manufacturing performance and a fall in output of the construction industry during the month. As a result, the PMI surveys collectively indicated that the UK economy remained close to stagnation midway through the second quarter as a result, registering one of the weakest performances since 2012.

                      “Companies reported that activity, order books and hiring were all subdued by a combination of weak demand – both in domestic and overseas markets – and Brexit-related uncertainty.

                      “On a brighter note, optimism about the year ahead picked up to an eight-month high, in part reflecting an easing of near-term concerns due to the extension of the Brexit deadline to 31st October. However, it is clear that many businesses remain cautious in relation to spending and investing in the uncertain political environment, which is exacerbating the impact of a wider global economic slowdown on the UK.”

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone PMI Composite finalized at 51.8, suggests 0.2% Q2 GDP growth only

                        Eurozone PMI services was finalized at 52.9, up from flash reading at 52.5 and April’s final at 52.9. PMI Composite was revised up to 51.8, up from flash reading of 51.6 and April’s final at 51.5. Among the countries, Italy PMI Composite improved to 49.9, 2-month high. France PMI Composite rose to 51.2, 6-month high. German PMI Composite rose to 52.6, 3-month high. But Spain PMI Composite dropped to 52.1, 66-month low.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                        “The final eurozone PMI for May came in higher than the flash estimate, indicating the fastest growth for three months, but the overall picture remains one of weak current growth and gloomier prospects for the year ahead. While the service sector has seen business conditions improve compared to late last year, growth remains only modest, in part reflecting a spill-over from the trade-led downturn in the manufacturing sector.

                        “Despite output at goods and service providers collectively rising at a slightly faster rate in May, the survey data are merely indicating a modest 0.2% rise in GDP in the second quarter.

                        “Furthermore, there seems little prospect of any immediate improvement: new orders barely rose in May, painting one of the gloomiest pictures of demand seen over the past six years, and companies’ expectations of growth over the coming year likewise fell to one of the lowest in six years.

                        “The survey also brought further signs that companies are having to increasingly compete on price to sustain sales growth, dampening inflationary pressures to the lowest for two-and-a-half years.

                        “Although Germany and France saw stronger growth in May, rates of increase remained subdued. Spain meanwhile saw growth slip to the lowest since late-2013 but Italy once again reported the toughest conditions, stuck in a mild downturn.”

                        Full released here.

                        China Caixin PMI Services dropped to 52.7, subdued expectations linked to ongoing China-US trade dispute

                          China Caixin PMI Services dropped to 52.7 in May, down from 54.5 and missed expectation of 54.2. PMI Composite dropped to 5.15, down from 52.7. Markit noted that “overall confidence towards the year ahead weakened to the lowest on record, which was primarily driven by weaker sentiment at manufacturers”. Also, “expectations at goods producers were the least upbeat since the series began in April 2012″, ” services firms registered the lowest degree of confidence since July 2018″.

                          And, “subdued expectations were often linked to the ongoing China-US trade dispute and relatively subdued global demand conditions.”

                          Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

                          “The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in May from the recent high of 54.5 in April, although it remained firmly within expansionary territory. Among the gauges included in the survey:

                          1. The gauge for new business fell from the past month’s recent high but remained in expansionary territory, reflecting slowing growth in demand across the services sector.
                          2. The measure for employment fell from the past month’s recent high while remaining within expansionary territory, suggesting jobs growth is slowing.
                          3. Gauges for input costs and prices charged by services providers both fell slightly while remaining in expansionary territory. Growth in input costs outpaced that of prices charged, indicating that services companies remained under significant pressure.
                          4. The measure for business expectations continued to fall, despite staying in positive territory, reflecting services providers’ weakening confidence in their future prospects.

                          “The Caixin China Composite Output Index fell to 51.5 in May from 52.7 the month before, mainly due to slower growth in the service sector.

                          1. The gauge for new orders edged down while remaining in expansionary territory, while the measure for new export orders returned to growth, pointing to weakening demand at home but improved demand abroad. The negative effects of China-U.S. tensions on exports have yet to emerge, perhaps due to exporters front-loading shipments of products that are in the remaining $300 billion of goods not subject to punitive tariffs.
                          2. The employment gauge continued to fall, entering contractionary territory. This suggested the labor market is under pressure. In a move that is likely related, the State Council recently set up a new leading group on employment.
                          3. Both gauges for input costs and output charges edged down while remaining in expansionary territory. Growth in input costs outpaced that of output charges, indicating companies continued to be squeezed.
                          4. The measure for future output fell markedly, to the lowest reading since the series began in 2012, although it remained in positive territory. This indicates business confidence is in urgent need of a boost.

                          “Overall, China’s economic growth showed some signs of slowing in May. Employment and business confidence in particular merit policymakers’ attention.”

                          Full release here.

                          Australia GDP grew 0.4% in Q1, driven mainly by government spending

                            Australian GDP grew 0.4% qoq in Q1, matched expectations. Annually, growth slowed to 1.8% yoy, down from 2.3% yoy and matched expectations too. But the details are rather weak. Government spending was the main contributor to growth, while rose 0.8%. Household spending slowed to 0.3% and contributed a modest 0.1%. And, dwelling investment contracted by -2.5% while slowing housing market has resulted in significant falls in ownership transfer costs. Non-mining investment rose 2.0% while mining investment dropped -1.8%.

                            Gross domestic product, Volume measures: Seasonally adjusted

                            Separately, RBA Head of Economic Analysis Alexandra Heath said in a report that ” mining investment is probably around its trough and is likely to pick-up gradually over the next year or so”. And, “resource exports are also expected to contribute to GDP growth before plateauing at a new, higher level.”

                            Fed Clarida: Will put in place policies to sustain price stability and maximum employment

                              Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida emphasized yesterday that policymakers would “put in place policies that not only achieve but sustain price stability and maximum employment, and we’ll do that if we need to.” He added that interest rates are now at the lower end of that range consistent with 2% inflation. While markets are pricing in rate cuts as tariff wars have intensified, he noted Fed shouldn’t be “handcuffed” to fluctuations in markets.

                              On yield curve, Clarida said “historically a flat yield curve doesn’t convey a lot of information”. However, if yield curve inversion “persists for some time”, “that’s obviously something I would definitely take seriously.” But for now, “I would not view this as a strong signal of concern. We are early into it. It’s certainly something we’ll keep looking at.”

                              Separately, in a WSJ interview, Dallas Fed Robert Kaplan sounded calm regarding the trade tensions between US, China and Mexico. He said: “I want to take a little bit more time and be patient here, because some of these recent events could be reversed… Worth being cognizant of the fact that these recent tensions have just elevated in the last five, six weeks… And in the next five, six weeks, a number of them could be alleviated.”

                              DOW rises over 400pts on Fed Powell’s openness to rate cut

                                US stocks stage a very strong rebound today with DOW trading up over 400 pts at the time of writing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s short comments on current outlook and policy seemed to be the trigger. Markets believed that Powell signaled his openness to rate cut.

                                This is the exact quote from the remarks: “I’d like first to say a word about recent developments involving trade negotiations and other matters. We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved. We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective. My comments today, like this conference, will focus on longer-run issues that will remain even as the issues of the moment evolve.

                                It’s firstly seen as acknowledgement on risks from “trade negotiations and other markets” And Fed will “act as appropriate” after monitoring the implications on economic outlook. That is, some saw that as a node to cutting rates if the economy worsen due to Trump’s trade wars.

                                Technically, it now looks like DOW has drawn strong support from 38.2% retracement of 21712.53 to 26695.96 at 24792.28. The gap resistance at 25342.28 will likely be taken out this week to confirm short term bottoming at 2480.57. The real test is on 55 day EMA (now at 25736). Before sustained trading above this EMA, we’d still favor another decline to 61.8% retracement at 23616.20 and below.

                                Trump: It’s more likely tariffs on Mexico go on

                                  Trump indicates at a news conference that he is likely to go ahead with tariffs on Mexico. And Mexico should “step up” to stop “invasion” to the US. At the same time he blamed Democrats for stalling Congress’ efforts to address the situation at border.

                                  He said “We’re going to see if we can do something, but I think it’s more likely that the tariffs go on… Mexico should step up and stop this onslaught, this invasion into our country.”

                                  Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard is “going to find common ground” with the US and hoped Wednesday’s meeting in Washington could be a starting point for negotiations.

                                  Fed Powell: Policymakers do not know how or when trade war will end

                                    In the opening remarks at the “Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices”, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy makers “do not know how or when” the issues on trade negotiations and other matters will be resolved. But they are closely monitoring the implications on economic outlook. And, Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective.”

                                    For the rest of the remarks, Powell focus on the longer-run issues related to the public review on monetary policy strategy, tools and communications. Specifically, the review in focused on three questions:

                                    1. Can the Federal Reserve best meet its statutory objectives with its existing monetary policy strategy, or should it consider strategies that aim to reverse past misses of the inflation objective?
                                    2. Are the existing monetary policy tools adequate to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability, or should the toolkit be expanded?
                                    3. How can the FOMC’s communication of its policy framework and implementation be improved?

                                    Full remarks here.

                                    Fed Evans: Current monetary policy setting has been appropriate

                                      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans insisted in a CNBC interview that the economy remains solid and interest rate is at the right place. He said “our current setting has been appropriate, but if we sense that there was some greater uncertainty, some softening, we’d have to take that into account and ask, are we getting in the way of the economy.”

                                      While markets are betting on Fed rate cuts this year, Evans said they are “something that I haven’t yet seen in the national data.” In particular, he pointed out that consumption and employment continued to be strong, even though business investment as not as strong as he’d like.

                                      Into US session: Dollar refusing to give up despite selloff, stocks recovering

                                        The forex markets are rather mixed today. Dollar extended yesterday’s selloff, on free falling treasury yields and after St. Louis Fed James Bullard became the first policymaker calling for a rate cut. But the greenback is not totally giving up yet. EUR/USD is struggling around 1.1263 resistance, AUD/USD around 0.6988 resistance and USD/CAD around 1.3429 support. There is no follow through selling in Dollar yet.

                                        Australian Dollar is currently joint strongest with Canadian. RBA cut interest rate to 1.25% and Governor Philip Lowe deliberately noted that more rate cuts are on the table. But Aussie just shrugged them off. Euro is next strongest but upside is capped by mixed economic data. Eurozone CPI slowed more than expected to 1.2% yoy in May but unemployment rate dropped to record low at 7.6% in April. Sterling is also firm even though UK PMI construction dropped back into contraction region. Swiss Franc and Yen are the weakest ones for today, as European indices are trading higher together DOW futures.

                                        In Europe, currently:

                                        • FTSE is up 0.25%.
                                        • DAX is up 1.14%.
                                        • CAC is up 0.28%.
                                        • German 10-year yield is down -0.0121 at -0.211.

                                        Earlier in Asia:

                                        • Nikkei dropped -0.01%.
                                        • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.49%.
                                        • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.96%.
                                        • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.61%.
                                        • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.074 to -0.10.

                                        RBA Lowe: Possibility of lower interest rates remains on the table

                                          RBA Governor Philip Lowe used a speech to explain today’s rate cut. He emphasized that the decision “is not in response to a deterioration in our economic outlook”. But its to “support employment growth and to provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target.”

                                          The timing of today’s cut was due to “accumulation of evidence” of subdued inflation, significant spare capacity in the labor market. And collectively, these factors have contributed to delayed progress in returning inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range.

                                          Meanwhile, RBA board “has not yet made a decision” on whether there will be more interest rate reduction. He noted that current set of forecasts were based on assumptions that “cash rate would follow the path implied by market pricing, which was for the cash rate to be around 1 per cent by the end of the year.” But a range of other possible scenarios and much will depend on how the evidence evolves, especially on the labour market.

                                          He added: “It is possible that the current policy settings will be enough – that we just need to be patient. But it is also possible that the current policy settings will leave us short. Given this, the possibility of lower interest rates remains on the table”.

                                          He full speech here.