Trump declares auto imports as national security threats, order negotiations to complete in 180 days

    In a White House Proclamation published today, Trump declared automobile imports and certain parts “threaten to impair the national security of the United States”. And, the countries’ defense and military superiority “depend on the competitiveness of our automobile industry and the research and development that industry generates.”

    Thus, Trump directed US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to start negotiation process. And, if agreements cannot be reached within 180 days, Trump will determine whether and what further actions to take.

    In a more detailed release, it’s noted that American-owned automotive R&D and manufacturing are vital to national security. But with increased competitions from imports, American-owned producers’ share of the domestic automobile market has “contracted sharply”, declining from 67% in 1985 to 22% in 2017.

    Meanwhile, “protected foreign markets, like EU and Japan, “impose significant barriers to automotive imports from the United States, severely disadvantaging American-owned producers and preventing them from developing alternative sources of revenue for R&D in the face of declining domestic sales. ”  American-owned producers’ share of the global automobile market fell from 36% in 1995 to just 12% in 2017

    And, “defense purchases alone are not sufficient to support . . . R&D in key automotive technologies.” Sales revenue enables R&D expenditures that are necessary for long-term automotive technological superiority, and automotive technological superiority is essential for the national defense.

    Thus, “domestic conditions of competition must be improved by reducing imports.  American-owned producers must be able to increase R&D expenditures to ensure technological leadership that can meet national defense requirements.”

    Full releases:

    Into US session, Sterling tumbles as Brexit talks collapsed, Yen jumps on trade worries

      Entering into US session, Sterling is clearly the weakest for today. Selloff in the Pound accelerates after Labour party formally declared collapse of Brexit talks with the government. No one knows what’s next for Brexit, and not even who’ll be leading the government after Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is defeated again in June (highly likely). Canadian Dollar followed as the second weakest and then Australian Dollar.

      In addition to Brexit uncertainties, sentiments are weighed down by China’s hard stance on trade negotiation with the US. No further talk is scheduled for now and China seems uninterested to resume the talks. Tensions between US and China has turned from bad to worse after Trump’s double assault on Huawei. Chinese stocks closed below 2900 handle at 2882.30 today, down -2.48%. USD/CNH resumed recent rally and hit as high as 6.9448. Major European stocks are in red. German 10-year yield is back below -0.1 at -0.0117. DOW future is down -200 pts for the moment. Yen is currently the strongest one for today.

      In Europe, currently:

      • FTSE is down -0.55%, despite selloff in Sterling, which suggests FTSE is indeed rather weak.
      • DAX is down -1.22%.
      • CAC is down -0.76%.
      • German 10-year yield is down -0.0265 at -0.117.

      Earlier in Asia:

      • Nikkei rose 0.89%.
      • Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.16%.
      • China Shanghai SSE dropped -2.48%.
      • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.77%.
      • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0047 to -0.055.

      Pound extends decline as UK opposition Labour declares collapse of Brexit talks with government

        Sterling extends recent decline after UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn formally announced collapse of Brexit negotiation with the government. In a letter to Prime Minister Theresa May, Corbyn said the talks had “gone as far as they can”.

        And, “it has become clear that, while there are some areas where compromise has been possible, we have been unable to bridge important policy gaps between us…. Even more crucially, the increasing weakness and instability of your government means there cannot be confidence in securing whatever might be agreed between us.”

        May would now bring the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement back to the Commons in the first week of June. But there is practically no chance of getting it approved. Most importantly, regardless of the outcome of the vote, May agreed hammer out her the time line to step down with 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady.

        Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.7%, core CPI at 1.3%

          Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.7% yoy in April, up from 1.4% in March. Core CPI was finalized at 1.3% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from services (0.86%), followed by energy (0.51%), food, alcohol & tobacco (0.29%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.06%).

          For EU28, CPI was finalized at 1.9% yoy, up from 1.6% in March. The lowest annual rates were registered in Croatia (0.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both 0.9%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.4%) and Hungary (3.9%). Compared with March 2019, annual inflation fell in six Member States, remained stable in two and rose in nineteen.

          Full release here.

          Yuan’s decline resumes, Would China allow it to break 7 handle?

            USD/CNH’s decline resumed overnight and hit as high as 6.9446 so far. For now, the selloff in Yuan looks unstoppable as there is no end in sight in US-China trade war, which just escalated. But Reuters reported, based on unnamed source, that the PBoC won’t allow USD/CNH to break through 7 handle.

            The source was quoted saying “at present, rest assured they will certainly not let it break 7… Breaking 7 is beneficial to China because it can reduce some of the effects of tariff increases, but the impact on our renminbi confidence is negative and funds will flow out.”

            We remain doubtful on whether China will intervene this time given that they’re been generally refrained in both currency and stock markets in the past few months. Barring any government intervention, we maintain the view that, based on current momentum, USD/CNH should surge bass 6.9800 and 7.000 handle with relative ease. Next target is 61.8% projection of 6.2354 to 6.9800 from 6.6699 at 7.1306.

            BoJ Kuroda: Keeping rates low for extended period means quite a long time

              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the central bank’s forward guidance that “there’s a good chance current low interest rates will be maintained beyond (the spring of 2020) depending on future developments”. In a speech he emphasized “when we say we will keep rates low for an extended period of time, we mean it will be maintained for quite a long time.”

              On the economy, Kuroda expects it to continue to expand moderately. Though, “if overseas growth takes longer than expected to pick up, Japanese companies – manufacturers in particular – could become cautious about spending on capital expenditure”.

              While the economy is facing some risks, Kuroda dismissed that the so called “Modern Monetary Theory” as being a “wrong idea”. He said “when a central bank monetizes debt unlimitedly, it will most certainly trigger hyper-inflation and cause huge damage to the economy.” And, “it’s a common understanding among central banks of advanced economies that they ought not monetize debt.

              Kuroda’s full speech here.

              Impact of new US tariffs controllable, China not keen to resume trade talks

                The National Development and Reform Commission of China said it’s the overall impact of the latest 25% tariff on around US 300B in Chinese goods is “controllable”. The government has implemented and will continue to carry forward measures to keep growth in a “reasonable range”. And the measures will target to stabilize areas such as consumption, investment and employment. Also, NDRC noted the government will also keep bettering its business environment and leveling the playing field, to ensure the sustainability of investments.

                Separately, Bloomberg reported that China is not very keen in resuming trade negotiations with US, quoting a mysterious blog Taoran Notes (陶然笔记). The blog is believed to be backed by the government and is one of the few voices on China’s negotiations strategy in a censored internet world in the country. The blog piece noted: “We can’t see the U.S. has any substantial sincerity in pushing forward the talks. Rather, it is expanding extreme pressure… If the U.S. ignores the will of the Chinese people, then it probably won’t get an effective response from the Chinese side,” it added.

                BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0, growth pickup still in questions

                  New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 in April, up from 52.0. Looking at the details, production dropped -0.1 to 50.8, employment dropped -0.4 to 51.6, new orders dropped -0.3 to 52.4, finished stocks dropped to 0.8 to 51.9. On the other hand, deliveries jumped sharply by 3.6 to 56.3.

                  BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that while the improvement in activity for April was welcome, the underlying trend still remains a concern. She noted “Although this indicates the sector is still in expansion mode, the unadjusted series has tended to trend down since late 2017.  If this trend continues, it will eventually have negative consequences for the main published result”.

                  BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that “the headline PMI looks reasonable but some of the details have cooled off including new orders. It raises questions for those looking for a strong growth pickup later in 2019”.

                  Full release here.

                  Also from New Zealand, PPI input dropped -0.9% qoq in Q1. PPI output dropped -0.5% qoq.

                  Brainard: Fed might adopt opportunistic reflation strategy on monetary policy

                    Fed Lael Brainard said the central might adopt a so called “opportunistic reflation” strategy to lift underlying inflation to 2% and underscore its commitment to the inflation mandate. Such a strategy would accept a slight overshoot the 2% inflation target for a while, even if it’s driven by import prices.

                    She said “suppose that an unexpected increase in core import price inflation drove overall inflation modestly above 2% for a couple of years… The Federal Reserve could use that opportunity to communicate that a mild overshooting of inflation is consistent with our goals and to align policy with that statement.”

                    On the current outlook, she noted “the emerging contours of today’s new normal are defined by low sensitivity of inflation to changes in labor market slack, a low long-term neutral rate of interest, and low underlying trend inflation.”

                    Her full speech here.

                    Fed Kashkari: We misread faulty labor market signals, but cutting rates won’t help inflation expectations

                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in a speech in Santa Barbara that Fed could have misread faulty signals from the labor markets. And current situation suggests monetary policy was too tight in this recovery. Fed should be patient and allow inflation to overshoot target. Yet, he doesn’t see cutting rates offer any help. Overall, he advocates a wait-and-see with patience approach.

                      Kashkari said Fed could have “misread” the labor market and feared that “if we hit maximum employment, inflation might suddenly accelerate”. Thus, “we would then have to raise rates quickly to contain it”. However, the “headline unemployment rate has been giving a faulty signal”. Considering inflation “somewhat too low” and job market “still showing capacity”, he added, “the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that monetary policy has been too tight in this recovery”.

                      On monetary, policy, Kashkari said “for our current framework to be effective and credible, we must walk the walk and actually allow inflation to climb modestly above 2 percent in order to demonstrate that we are serious about symmetry”. However, he also told reporters that “I am not sure that cutting rates would do much to inflation expectations.”

                      Kashkari’s full speech here.

                      US update: Stocks cheer Walmart, Dollar & yields follow, EURUSD heavy

                        US stocks and treasury yields stage a strong rebound today, thanks to earnings surprises and solid economic data. In particular, investors cheered Walmart, which reported best Q1 same-store sales growth in nine-years. At the time of writing, DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all trading up more than 1%. 10-year yield is also back above 2.4 handle at 2.402.

                        The positive developments in the US pull Dollar broadly higher.

                        Technically, EUR/USD is set to take on 1.1173 minor support. Break will suggests that consolidation from 1.1111 has completed at 1.1263. retest of 1.1111 should be seen next.

                        USD/JPY is eyeing 110.04 minor resistance. Break will indicate short term bottoming at 109.02 and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA at 110.95.

                        The strong rebound in S&P 500 puts it firmly back above 55 day EMA. That dampens our bearish view that rise fro 2346.58 has completed at 2954.13. We’ll see from if SPX could extend the rebound to retest 2954.13 high next. Even though we don’t expect a break there. Confidence is just average.

                        EU Moscovici: 130% debt to GDP is already a lot

                          European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici warned today that “it’s in Italy’s interest to have a credible fiscal policy.” And, Eurozone finance ministers think that “130% is already a lot”, regarding Italy’s debt to GDP ratio.

                          European Commission expects Italy’s debt to growth to 133.7% of GDP this year, and peak at 135.2% in 2020. That’s already far above EU’s ceiling of 60%. However, Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini indicated this week that debt could even reach 140% of GDP if it’s necessary to boost employment.

                          Italian 10-year yield breaks above 2.8% earlier this week on concern over Italy’s budget. But it’s currently back below 2.7 handle.

                          US jobless claims dropped to 212k, housing starts, Philly Fed survey

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -16k to 212k in the week ending May 11, below expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4.75k to 225k. Continuing claims dropped -28k to 1.66M in the week ending May 4. Four week-moving average of continuing claims rose 1.5k to 1.668M.

                            Building permits rose 0.6% mom to 1.296k annualized rate. Housing starts rose 5.7% to mom to 1.235M.

                            Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook diffusion index jumped to 16.6 in May, up from 8.5 and beat expectation of 9.0.

                            China hit back on treatment of Huawei and three core issues in trade negotiations with US

                              The Chinese government is apparently furious at US move to sanction its telecom giant Huawei. Tensions of the two sides is set to escalate further while there is no set timing for resuming the collapsed trade talks. While Trump might want to meet Xi to clear out the outstanding issues to seal a trade deal at the upcoming G20 summit, the two sides are actually moving farther apart.

                              Trump’s administration hit Huawei on two heavy measures yesterday. Firstly, the U.S. Commerce Department is adding Huawei and 70 affiliates to its “entity List” that bans them from buying US technologies without government approval. Secondly, Trump signed an executive order banning US companies from using telecom equipment made by companies deemed to pose a national security risk. As Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross put, the decision was to “prevent American technology from being used by foreign-owned entities in ways that potentially undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests.”

                              Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said today “China has emphasized many times that the concept of national security should not be abused, and that it should not be used as a tool for trade protectionism… China will take all the necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese firms.”

                              On trade Gao warned “the tariff hike by the United States will only bring greater difficulties to the consultations… “We urge the United States to cancel the wrong practices as early as possible, avoiding greater losses to Chinese and American companies and consumers, and causing a ‘recession-like’ impact on the world economy.”

                              Gao also also clarified the three concerns on China. Firstly, all tariffs must be removed in order to reach a deal. Secondly, additional purchase of US goods is an issue to be resolved. Thirdly, the text of the agreement must be balanced, respecting each other’s sovereignty. Gao emphasized, “to reach any agreement, China’s three core concerns must be properly resolved,”

                              Separately, Foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang, said “negotiations and consultations, to have meaning, must be sincere… First, there must be mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. Second, one’s word must be kept, and not be capricious.”

                              Bundesbank Weidmann: Trade wars only know losers

                                Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned today that trade wars would damage the global economy and are useless in reducing current account deficit. He said “some expect higher tariffs to reduce current account balances… But this hope may prove futile, our analyses suggests.”

                                Also, Trump’s new tariffs will pose risks to the US economy. And, “retaliatory tariffs of other countries are likely to further weaken the global economy and world trade. Trade wars only know losers.”

                                Domestically, he admitted that inflation is “stubbornly low”. However, if outlook allows it, there is no need to postpone monetary policy normalization.

                                ECB Visco: Eurosystem ready to use a wide of of instruments to support economy

                                  ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said today that the economic prospects of Eurozone are clouded by uncertainties. Italy and global economy are experiencing a difficult time too. He noted that trade, mostly fueled by US, added to global economic slowdown. And as Bank of Italy Governor, he urged the country to boost productivity to fully recovery its growth path.

                                  Though, he dismissed the worries that ECB is “disarmed” should current situation deteriorates into a full-blown recession. He emphasized “central banks can rely on a wide range of instruments to support economic activity and, if necessary, the Eurosystem is ready to use them all in order to fulfill its mandate.”

                                  Asian update: AUD lower on unemployment rate, Yen strong on persistently weak yields

                                    US stocks staged a broad based recovery overnight on reports that Trump would delay the decision on auto tariffs, due May 18, by up to 6 months. Though, strength of recovery was relatively limited. More importantly, 10-year yield still closed down -0.0040 at 2.379, breaking 2.4 handle firmly. With 3-month yield closed at 2.404, this most crucial part of yield curve, 3-month to 10-yield, is inverted. Asian markets are mixed with mild recovery in China and Hong Kong stocks, but Nikkei is clearly down despite the auto tariff news.

                                    In the currency markets, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the weakest ones for today. Aussie was somewhat weighed down by unexpected rise in unemployment rate to 8-month high of 5.2%. But we’d like to emphasize that was due to rise in participation rate to record high of 65.8%. It’s healthy in a strong labor market. Canadian Dollar is the third weakest for today. On the other hand, weak treasury yields continue to support Yen as strongest, while Euro and Sterling recover.

                                    For the week, Yen and Swiss Franc remain the strongest one on free fall in major global treasury yields. Dollar remains the third strongest. Sterling is the weakest one on never ending Brexit impasse. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the next weakest.

                                    In Asia, currently:

                                    • Nikkei is down -0.67%.
                                    • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.24%.
                                    • China Shanghai SSE is up 0.28%.
                                    • Singapore Strait Times is up 0.05%.
                                    • Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0097 at -0.061.

                                    Overnight:

                                    • DOW rose 0.45%.
                                    • S&P 500 rose 0.58%.
                                    • NASDAQ rose 1.13%.
                                    • 10-year yield dropped -0.040 to 2.379.

                                    Australian employment grew 28.4k driven by part-time jobs, unemployment rate rose to 5.2%

                                      In April, Australia employment rose 28.4k, more than expectation of 15.2k. However, the growth was mainly driven by 34.7k growth in part-time jobs. Full-time employment contracted -6.3k. Unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, up from 5.1% and above expectation of 5.0%. That’s also an eight-month high. But participation rate also rose 0.2% to record high of 65.8%.

                                      Looking at some details, in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increase in employment was in New South Wales (up 25.1k), followed by Western Australia (up 6.4k) and Queensland (up 5.4k). The only decrease was in Victoria (down 7.6k).

                                      The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in New South Wales (up 0.2 pts to 4.5%), Victoria (up 0.2 pts to 4.9%), South Australia (up 0.2 pts to 6.1%), Western Australia (up 0.1 pts to 6.1%) and Tasmania (up 0.1 pts to 6.8%). The only decrease was observed in Queensland (down 0.2 pts to 5.9%).

                                       

                                      Full release here.

                                      AUD/USD dipped notably after the release but quickly recovered. While the set of job data isn’t stellar, it’s actually not too bad.

                                      BoJ Wakatabe: QQE has clearly positive impact on the economy and prices

                                        BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe reiterated to the parliament that the quantitative and qualitative easing program (QQE) had “clearly positive” impact of the economy and prices. And, benefits of easing is “outweighing” its costs.

                                        He admitted that BoJ hasn’t put a sustained end to deflation yet while inflation remains below 2% target. But he emphasize “we’re seeing an end to a long period of time when consumer prices kept falling.”

                                        On exit, he said “how an exit from easy policy affects BOJ’s balance sheet would depend on various factors such as means, the order in which it exits.”

                                        Canada Freeland: With steel tariffs in place, ratification of USMCA would be very, very problematic

                                          Despite all the talks and rumors that the US is close to lifting steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrysita Freeland left no hints on the progress after she met US Trade representative Robert Lighthizer yesterday.

                                          Freeland acknowledged that there were discussions regrading the tariffs but and details were provided. Instead, she just noted “Canada believes in the new [USMCA] agreement that we reached with the United States and Mexico,” and “we very much hope it can be ratified in all of our countries, although the domestic processes are up to each country.” She emphasized, “when it comes to Canada, it is certainly the case for us that as long as the tariffs remain in place, ratification would be very, very problematic.”

                                          Mexico’s chief North American trade negotiator Jesús Seade said earlier this week “Very quickly we have made a tremendous progress and I’m looking to an early resolution on the basis of lifting the tariff, no quotas. We were getting close to an agreement.” Mexican Secretary of Economy Graciela Márquez Colín also said “if we get similar proposals we might go into a trilateral, but that’s just a possibility”. But Freeland said she would “leave it to the Mexicans and the Americans to comment.”

                                          US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told a Senate Committee yesterday that “the president has instructed us to try to figure out a solution” on steel and aluminum tariffs.” And, “this is a very important part of passing USMCA which is a very important economic agreement for two of our largest trading partners… I think that we are close to an understanding with Mexico and Canada. I’ve spoken to the finance ministers. Ambassador Lighthizer is leading the effort on this, but I can assure you it is a priority of ours.”