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Australia employment rose 25.7k, no imminent need for RBA cut

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    Australia employment grew 25.7k in March, much better than expectation of 15.2k. Full time employment rose 48.3k while part time jobs dropped -22.6k. Unemployment rate rose from 4.9% to 5.0%, matched expectations. Participation rate also rose from 65.6% to 65.7%.

    The largest increase in employment was in Queensland (up 10.4k), followed by Victoria (up 10.0k) and South Australia (up 8.5k). The largest decrease was in New South Wales (down 2.6k) followed by Tasmania (down 1.8k). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in Queensland (up 0.7 pts to 6.1%), South Australia (up 0.2 pts to 5.9%), Tasmania (up 0.2 pts to 6.7%), Western Australia (up 0.1 pts to 6.0%) and New South Wales (up 0.1 pts to 4.3%). The only decrease in the unemployment rate was observed in Victoria (down 0.1 pts to 4.6%).

    The strong gain in full time jobs underlines the robustness in the employment market. However, unemployment rate rose in all regions, only except Victoria, which is a concern. At this point, there is no imminent push for an RBA rate cut in the first up. But situation could worsen ahead that trigger the expected two cuts in the second half. The key will lie in upcoming economic projections in May.

    Full release here.

    AUD/USD’s reaction to the data is rather muted. Further rise is in favor with 0.7139 minor support intact. But so far, AUD/USD bulls are continuing to hesitate to respond to positive news.

    EU announced tariff lists countering unfair US subsides on Boeing

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      EU formally announced the list of US imports to be targeted for tariffs as countermeasures on US subsidies to Boeing. The list covers a range of items, from aircrafts to chemicals and agri-food products (including everything from frozen fish and citrus fruits to ketchup), that overall represent around USD20B of US exports into EU. The final list will take into account results of public consultation and WTO  arbitrator’s decision.

      EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström said: “European companies must be able to compete on fair and equal terms. The recent WTO ruling on U.S. subsidies for Boeing is important in this respect. We must continue to defend a level-playing field for our industry. But let me be clear, we do not want a tit-for-tat. While we need to be ready with countermeasures in case there is no other way out, I still believe that dialogue is what should prevail between important partners such as the EU and the U.S., including in bringing an end to this long-standing dispute. The EU remains open for discussions with the U.S., provided these are without preconditions and aim at a fair outcome.”

      Full statement here. List of products.

      Canadian dollar jumps as core CPI accelerated in March

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        Canadian Dollar rises in early US session as core inflation came in higher than expected. Headline CPI rose 1.9% yoy in March, accelerated from 1.5% yoy but matched expectation. CPI core common was unchanged at 1.8% yoy, matched expectations. However, CPI core median accelerated to 2.0% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy and beat expectation os 1.8% yoy. CPI core trim rose to 2.1% yoy, up from 1.9% yoy and beat expectation of 1.8% yoy.

        Also from released, Canada trade surplus was smaller than expected at CAD 2.9B in February. US trade deficit narrowed to USD -49.4B in February.

        USD/CAD dips through 1.3284 support after the releases. But it’s staying above 1.3250 support. There is no change in the view that it’s in consolidation pattern from 1.3467. Rise from 1.3068 is expected to resume sooner or later.

        Into US session: AUD strongest on China data, German and US yields jump

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Entering into US session, Australian Dollar remains the strongest one for today, as boosted by better than expected Chinese data. The data further suggests stabilization of slowdown, which is an important factor for the easing global economic risks. While the optimism is not so much reflected in the stock markets, bonds are clearly responding well. German 10-year yield is is now back at 0.08 level while US 10-year yield breaches 2.6 handle.

          Staying in the currency markets, Euro is the second strongest for today. German government halved 2019 growth forecast to just 0.5%. But it’s largely shrugged off. The key is, Eurozone economy as a whole will certainly be benefited if China could regain some momentum. Canadian Dollar is the third strongest, but could be dragged down by CPI release. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one as poor Q1 CPI reading raises the chance of an imminent RBNZ cut at next meeting. Swiss Franc and Dollar are the next weakest. Sterling is mixed after slightly lower than expected March CPI.

          In Europe, currently:

          • FTSE is down -0.11%.
          • DAX is up 0.32%.
          • CAC is up 0.28%.
          • German 10-year yield is up 0.0111 at 0.082.

          Earlier in Asia:

          • Nikkei rose 0.25%.
          • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.02%.
          • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.29%.
          • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.50%.
          • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.01 to -0.01.

          Germany halves 2019 growth forecast to 0.5%

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            Germany’s Economy Ministry lowered 2019 growth forecast to a mere 0.5%, just half of January’s projection of 1.0% (downgraded from 1.8%).  If realized, that would be slowest growth in six years. For 2020m, growth is projected to pick up to 1.5%.

            Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said externally, slowing global growth, trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty are weighing on the economy. Internally, introduction of the new car emission regulations and  unusually low Rhine water levels are negative factors.

            The ministry also noted that global economy should regain some momentum ahead. Strong import would mean a negative contribution to growth in 2019, “purely mathematically”.

            Full release here.

            Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.4%, core at 0.8%

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.4% yoy in March, unrevised, down from 1.5% yoy in February. Core CPI was finalized at 0.8% yoy, unchanged from February’s reading. EU28 inflation was confirmed at 1.6% yoy.

              The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.52 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.51 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.34 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.04 pp).

              EUR/USD attempts to rally earlier today but fails to take out 1.1324 resistance. It’s staying in range after the releases.

              UK CPI unchanged at 1.9%, core at 1.8%, Sterling steady

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                In March, UK CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, below expectation of 2.0% yoy. Core CPI was also unchanged at 1.8% yoy, below expectation of 1.9% yoy. RPI slowed to 2.4% yoy, down from 2.5% yoy and miss expectation of 2.6% yoy.

                PPI input dropped -0.2% mom, rose 3.7% yoy, below expectation of 0.3% mom, 3.9% yoy. PPI output rose 0.3% mom, 2.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.1% yoy. PPI output core rose 0.02% mom, 2.2% yoy versus expectation o f0.1% mom, 2.2% yoy..

                House price index rose 0.6% yoy in February, well below expectation of 1.3% yoy.

                EUR/GBP rises mildly today mainly due to Euro’s strength. Sterling’s reaction to the data set elsewhere is muted.

                China Q1 GDP grew 6.4%. Production, sales, investment rebound. But no one cares except AUD

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Another batch of data from China released today surprised on the upside. GDP growth came in at 6.4% yoy in Q1, unchanged from prior quarter and beat expectation of 6.3% yoy.

                  In March, industrial production rose strongly by 8.5% ytd yoy, accelerated from 5.3% and beat expectation of 5.6%. Retail sales rose 8.7% ytd yoy, up fro 8.2% and beat expectation of 8.3%. Fixed asset investment rose 6.3% ytd yoy, up from 6.1% yoy and matched expectation of 6.3%. Jobless rate also improved from 5.3% to 5.2%.

                  Recent data from China continued to paint the picture of stabilization in slowdown, and raised hope that recovery is on the way. That’s an important condition for improvement in global outlook.

                  Australian Dollar jumps notably after the release. In particular, EUR/AUD drops through 1.5721 key support and whole decline from 1.6765 might be resuming.

                  However, reactions elsewhere are rather muted. At the time of writing, China Shanghai SSE is just flat. Hong Kong HSI is even down -0.23%.

                  New Zealand CPI slowed to 1.5%, solidifies need for imminent RBNZ easing

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    New Zealand Dollar drops sharply after worse than expected consumer inflation data. CPI rose 0.1% qoq in Q1, below expectation of 0.3% qoq. Annually, CPI slowed to 1.5% yoy, down from 1.9% yoy and missed expectation of 1.7% yoy. Tradeable CPI dropped -0.4% yoy while non-tradeable CPI rose 2.8% yoy.

                    CPI has been persistently weak and remained below mid-point of RBNZ’s 1-3% target range for the eight consecutive quarter. Indeed, CPI has only breached 2% level once in Q1 2017 (2.2%) since 2011. Yesterday, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted that “possibilities of first quarter inflation numbers being undershot have already being factored in the RBNZ’s dovish bias”. The downside surprise is giving Orr an even worse picture and solidifies the imminent need for policy easing.

                    NZD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.6666 after the release, then recovered on strong Chinese data. Nevertheless, break of 0.6713 support confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.6938. Failure to sustain above falling 4 hour 55 EMA EMA also affirms near term bearishness.

                    NZD/USD should now be on track to 0.6551 support next.

                    Japan exports slumped in March, raised concerns of Q1 GDP contraction

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      In March, in trend terms, Japan’s exports dropped -2.4% yoy to JPY 7.20T. Imports rose 1.1% yoy to JPY 6.67T. Trade surplus came in at JPY 0.53T, up from prior month’s JPY 0.33T. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports dropped -1.0% yoy to JPY 6.61T. Imports rose 2.1% yoy to JPY 6.78T. Trade deficit was at JPY -0.18T.

                      Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, dropped -9.4% yoy, reversing from 5.6% growth in February. Exports to Asia as a whole dropped -5.5% yoy, a fifth straight month of decline. The slump in exports could drag down capital expenditure and private consumption growth . And it raised concerns that the economy contracted again in Q1.

                      Full release here.

                      Amamiya: BoJ mindful of risks including financial imbalances

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the central bank is “ready to respond” financial crisis threatens the stability of the banking system.

                        He pointed to experience in the late 1980s, and noted “one of the factors that led to Japan’s asset-inflated bubble was the fact we kept monetary policy easy even as the economy continued to expand”. Hence, “the BOJ must be mindful of the potential risks to the economy and prices, including financial imbalances,”

                        Regarding monetary policy, Amamiya said “we’re ready to respond if financial problems have a big impact on the economy.”

                        US raised very large trade deficit with Japan during trade talks

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          The US Trade Representative issued a statement regarding the meeting of USTR Robert Lighthizer and Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Toshimitsu Motegi on April 15-16 in Washington.

                          In the statement, it’s noted that US and Japan “discussed trade issues involving goods, including agriculture, as well as the need to establish high standards in the area of digital trade”. Also, US raised its “very large trade deficit with Japan – $67.6 billion in goods in 2018.” Both sides agreed to meet again in the “near future to continue these talks”.

                          Motegi said yesterday that no agreement has been made. But he hoped to reach a “good result” on the talks “at an early stage.” There will be further discussions next week before the US-Japan summit. Meanwhile, discussions regarding exchange rate would be left to finance ministers.

                          US NAHB index rose to 63, industrial production dropped -0.1%; Canada manufacturing sales dropped -0.2%

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US NAHB housing market index rose to 63 in April, up from 62, but missed expectation of 64. Industrial production dropped -0.1% mom in March, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Capacity utilization dropped to 78.8%.

                            From Canada, manufacturing sales dropped -0.2% mom in February, below expectation of -0.1% mom. International securities transactions dropped to CAD 12.05B in February, versus expectation of CAD 27.34B.

                            USD/CAD weakens mildly after the releases. But there is no sign of breakout from recent range from 1.3467 yet.

                            Gold breaks 1280, confirming medium term bearish reversal?

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Gold drops notably today to as low as 1278.29 so far. Immediate focus is back on 1276.76 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 1346.17 at 1275.45).

                              Sustained break of 1275.45/1276.76 should confirm completion of whole rise from 1160.17. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1234.42 and below.

                              Nevertheless, break of 1290.10 minor resistance will argue that 1275.45/1276.76 is defended again. Another rise would be seen to extend the consolidation pattern from 1346.71.

                              OECD: China at a crossroad, should lower external and internal barriers

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                In an OECD survey report, Deputy Secretary-General Ludger Schuknecht, warned that “China is at a crossroads, facing serious domestic and external challenges to maintaining its strong position over the long-term.”. He urged that “policy should seek to ensure a better functioning economy that delivers stable and inclusive growth for all.”

                                OECD said China should aim to “further lower import tariffs and dismantle non-tariff barriers and barriers on the entry and conduct of foreign firms, in particular requirements to form joint ventures or transfer technology.” Also, “ongoing fiscal stimulus should avoid directing credit to state-owned enterprises and local governments”

                                Additionally, there are :wide scope to improve efficiency across the economy, notably by reducing the internal barriers that hinder product market competition and labour mobility.”. And measures include “stronger protection of intellectual property rights; gradual removal of implicit guarantees to state-owned enterprises, allowing them to default; and reduction of state ownership in commercially-oriented, non-strategic sectors.”

                                Full release here.

                                German ZEW: Sentiments improved but current situation deteriorated considerably

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved to 3.1 in April, up from -3.6 and beat expectation of 0.5. Current Situation index, however, dropped to 5.5, down from 11.1 and missed expectation of 8.5. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Rose to 4.5, up from -2.5. Eurozone Current Situation index dropped -6.6 pts to 13.2.

                                  ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach: “The slight improvement recorded by the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed. The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook. By contrast, the latest figures regarding incoming orders and industrial production in the German industry point to a rather weak economic development.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  EUR/USD weakens after the release.

                                  UK unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9%, wage growth matched expectations, Sterling steady

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% in February, matched expectations. Average weekly earnings including bonus rose 3.4% 3moy, matched expectation. Average weekly earnings ex-bonus rose 3.4% 3moy, also matched expectations. Claimant count rose 28.3k in March, above expectation of 20.0k.

                                    Full release here.

                                    GBP/USD is steady after the release, extending recent sideway consolidation.

                                    EU Tusk: Everyone is exhausted with Brexit

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      European Council President Donald Tusk “on both sides of the Channel, everyone, including myself, is exhausted with Brexit, which is completely understandable.” However, he emphasized it’s not an excuse to say “let’s get it over with, just because we’re tired.”

                                      He explicitly responded to a leader of a EU state who had warned “dreamers” not to think “Brexit could be reversed”. Tusk said: “At this rather difficult moment in our history, we need dreamers and dreams. We cannot give in to fatalism. At least I will not stop dreaming about a better and united Europe.”

                                      European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said it was not his working assumption that Brexit could be reversed or extended beyond a new Oct. 31 deadline.

                                      RBNZ Orr: Q1 inflation undershot “already” factored in dovish bias

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said today that monetary easing bias remains in place for now. And softer economic conditions in US, Europe and China are having a role in the dovish tone.

                                        Also, Orr added that “possibilities of first quarter inflation numbers being undershot have already being factored in the RBNZ’s dovish bias”. The comments came just ahead of New Zealand’s CPI release tomorrow. Headline inflation is expected to slow from 1.9% yoy to 1.7% yoy in Q1.

                                        NZD/USD is a touch lower after the comments. However, Orr said that inflation undershot was already factored in. Thus, there is prospect of a mild rebound should tomorrow’s CPI release meets expectations.

                                        AUD tumbles as RBA said lower interest rates could be expected

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Australian Dollar tumbles sharply in Asian session after dovish RBA minutes set out the conditions for a rate cut. It’s seen as another step towards more monetary easing ahead, as markets are expecting two cuts this year.

                                          The most important part of the minutes is that RBA confirmed there could be a need for rate cut. It said “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”. Also, in a scenario where ” inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up”, “a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.”

                                          Nevertheless, “members agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”. It suggested RBA would wait-and-see, likely at least through Q2.

                                          Suggested readings on RBA.

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