Euro suffered broad based selling today, except versus JPY and CHF. Markets seemed to take ECB minutes rather negatively. The cautious tone prompted talks that ECB could stay dovish for longer than expected. Let’s have a quick glance on how Euro pairs are doing.
EUR/USD breached 1.2302 minor support briefly, but stabilized since then. There is, so far, at least no downside acceleration through 1.2302 yet. And, even if that happens, the key support level is at 1.2214. As long as it holds, the triangle pattern from 1.2555 is still intact and larger up trend remains in favor to resume later..
EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation below 132.61 temporary top. But it’s holding well above 131.09 minor support. Thus, the rebound from 128.94 is still expected to extend higher at a later stage to 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and above.
EUR/CHF’s rally continues today and reached as high as 1.1888 so far. Long term up trend has just resumed this week and is on track for 1.2 handle.
EUR/AUD extended the choppy fall from 1.6189 t as low as 1.5868. But for now, it’s staying above 1.5857 minors support. Hence, price actions from 1.6189 are viewed as a corrective move. Larger up trend is expected to resume at a later stage. Nonetheless, firm break of 1.5857 will be a sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 1.5621 key support.
EUR/CAD’s decline from 1.6151 extends today and reaches as low as 1.5490. The cross is on track for 38.2% retracement of 1.3782 (2016 low) to 1.6151 at 1.5246.
EUR/GBP’s downside breakout today now confirms resumption of medium term decline from 0.9305. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.8967 at 0.8621. But based on current momentum, it will likely extend further to 100% projection at 0.8407.
After all, we’d like to point out that outlook in Euro is indeed not that bearish in spite of today’s selloff. There is no doubt that EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP are in near term down trend. But there is not clear bearishness in EUR/USD and EUR/AUD yet. EUR/JPY is still likely to extend recent rebound. And EUR/CHF is making new high. So, Euro is overall, mixed only.
TPP member Japan, Australia, Malaysia told Trump, you’re welcomed but no renegotiation
Trump got slaps straight into his face by some members of the 11 nation Trans-Pacific Partnership today. While member countries welcomed Trump’s intention to consider rejoining, they made themselves clear that there will be no renegotiation. That is, take it or leave us alone.
Australia Trade Minister Steven Ciobo said today that “we welcome the U.S. coming back to the table but I don’t see any wholesale appetite for any material re-negotiation of the TPP-11.”
Japan Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said the current deal is a “balanced one, like fine glassware” and it would be difficult to change.
Malaysia International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed also warned that renegotiation would “alter the balance of benefits for parties.”
T11 include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam.
US withdrawn from TPP on 23 January 2017 after Trump signed a Presidential memorandum, less than a month he took office.
Earlier today, Trump tweeted, “Would only join TPP if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to Pres. Obama. We already have BILATERAL deals with six of the eleven nations in TPP, and are working to make a deal with the biggest of those nations, Japan, who has hit us hard on trade for years!” That came after news that Trump ordered White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to examine the benefits of re-entering TPP.