ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos highlighted overnight that recent data confirms the disinflationary process is “well on track.” However, he cautioned that the outlook is clouded by “substantial risks.”

Key concerns include geopolitical conflicts that could raise energy and freight costs, extreme weather events, and persistent wage growth, all of which could prolong inflationary pressures.

On the downside, Guindos noted that previous rate hikes might impact demand and inflation more than anticipated, while a slowing global economy presents further risks.

He pointed out that economic performance has been weaker than expected, with risks skewed to the downside. “Lower confidence could prevent consumption and investment from recovering as fast as expected,” Guindos added, emphasizing that geopolitical tensions continue to threaten global trade and energy supplies.

In an interview with Reuters, Belgian ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch emphasized the importance of patience regarding monetary policy adjustments, pointing to strong employment figures and rising real wages as signals of economic resilience.

Wunsch remarked that with the economy likely headed for a “soft landing,” there is “no urgency in further accelerating the easing of monetary policy.”

Wunsch downplayed temporary inflation undershooting, and warned against “overdramatize such an event”. He added, “Being a bit below 2% is not a big event if the medium term continues to point to 2%,” especially if driven by a favorable terms of trade shock.

Wunsch further cautioned against making premature decisions ahead of December’s ECB meeting, noting that several high-stakes developments are expected in the coming weeks.

“We’ll have so much information until then, including two more inflation readings and new staff projections,” he said. “There will be a U.S. election, and we also need to see how the conflict in the Middle East develops, so discussing precise levels is premature.”

Speaking on Saturday, Dutch ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot acknowledged the market’s heightened expectations for ECB rate cuts, noting that this shift occurred after disappointing PMIs and consumption data.

Knot described these expectations as having increased “quite dramatically” but cautioned that the market may have been “a little bit over-enthusiastic.” He highlighted that “We will only know once we do our own calculations again in December.”

Knot outlined two contrasting scenarios regarding the ECB’s rate path. On one hand, if incoming data reveal a rapid pace of disinflation or signal a notable shortfall in economic recovery, ECB could accelerate policy easing. On the other, if inflation risks shift upwards or data show resilience in growth and inflation, a more gradual reduction of restrictive measures might be warranted.

Knot underscored the importance of retaining “full optionality,” a strategy designed to act as a hedge against unpredictable shifts in the economic outlook. He stressed that ECB’s meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach has been effective.