Eurozone CPI slowed to 5.5% yoy in Jun, CPI core rose to 5.4% yoy

    Eurozone CPI slowed from 6.1% yoy to 5.5% yoy in June, below expectation of 5.6% yoy. CPI core rose from 5.3% yoy to 5.4% yoy, matched expectations.

    Looking at the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate(11.7%, compared with 12.5% in May), followed by non-energy industrial goods (5.5%, compared with 5.8% in May), services (5.4%, compared with 5.0% in May) and energy (-5.6%, compared with -1.8% in May).

    Full Eurozone CPI release here.

    China announced retaliation on US tariffs hikes, effect Jun 1

      China official announced retaliation to US tariffs hikes from 10% to 25% on USD 200B in Chinese import effective on May 9.

      In a statement of the Office of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, China criticized that the above move by the US “led to an escalation of economic and trade frictions, which violates the consensus of China and US to resolve trade differences through consultations”. And, that “harms the interests of both sides and does not meet the general expectations of the international community.”

      The Commission announced to “adjust” and raise current tariffs on US imports, effect June 1. For the list of USD 60B tariffs US products, rate will be raised to 25%, 20% or 10%. For those products at 5% tariffs, the rate will be maintained.

      Looking at the details, a total of 5140 lines of US products will be affected. Among them, additional 25% will imposed of 2493 lines, additional 20% will be on 1078 lines

      Full statement (in Simplified Chinese).

       

      ECB to cut, focus on Lagarde’s signal for a July pause

        ECB is set to lower its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.00% today, marking the eighth cut of this easing cycle and bringing policy deep into neutral territory. With inflation falling back below the 2% target in May, the case for further easing is clear in the near term. However, the main focus will be on President Christine Lagarde’s forward guidance, particularly whether she signals a July pause in rate cuts, and the ECB’s updated economic projections.

        The case for caution is clear. The Eurozone faces a highly uncertain backdrop with multiple crosscurrents. Trade war remain front and center, with US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda weighing heavily on confidence and investment. Retaliatory moves from the EU could compound the hit to activity. At the same time, the surprised surge in Euro risks exerting additional downward pressure on inflation. Amid this uncertainty, ECB is expected to lower both its 2025 growth and inflation forecasts, acknowledging the softening outlook.

        At the same time, medium-term fundamentals could provide some support. The EU’s major rearmament plans and Germany’s fiscal pivot to expansion are likely to bolster investment and domestic demand over time. That said, these structural measures will take time to feed through.

        A July pause would allow policymakers to evaluate how these domestic tailwinds and external headwinds ultimately shape the outlook, particularly as geopolitical and policy unpredictability continues to cloud the picture.

        Technically, EUR/CHF’s near term price actions from 0.9445 are more likely than not a triangle consolidation pattern. That is, rise from 0.9218 is in favor to resume, even as a corrective move. Break of 0.9389 minor resistance will be a bullish sign and further break of 0.9419 should sent EUR/CHF through 0.9445 resistance.

        GBP recovers as UK PMI construction rose to 5 month high, beat expectations

          UK PMI construction rose to 52.5 in April, up fro 47.0 and beat expectation of 50.5. That’s also the highest reading in 5 months. GBP responds positive to the upside surprise and is attempting to rebound.

          Comments from Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit:

          “A rebound in construction activity was pretty well inevitable after snowfall resulted in severe disruptions on site during March. House building led the way, with growth in April among the strongest seen over the past two-and-a-half years. However, the picture was less positive in other areas of construction, with commercial building and civil engineering work rising only marginally.

          “While temporary factors make it difficult to gauge underlying momentum, the recovery from March’s low point is somewhat underwhelming and provides an indication that the construction sector has been treading water at the very best in recent months.

          “A consistent theme so far this year has been fragile demand conditions and subdued volumes of incoming new work. Survey respondents noted that heightened economic uncertainty continued to hold back construction growth in April, with risk aversion among clients leading to delays with spending decisions on new projects.”

          Full release here.

          UK GDP contracted -0.3% mom in March; services main contributor to decline

            UK GDP saw a contraction of -0.3% mom in March, significantly underperforming against expectations of being flat. The contraction was primarily driven by the services sector, which slipped by -0.5% in the month, following an unrevised dip of 0.1% in February.

            However, not all areas of the economy were in decline. Production output experienced its strongest monthly growth since May 2021, with a 0.7% increase in March, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in February. Similarly, construction sector showed modest growth of 0.2% in March, albeit much slower than February’s robust 2.6% rise.

            On a quarterly basis, GDP growth for Q1 met expectations at 0.1% qoq. In output terms, services sector eked out 0.1% growth over the quarter, fueled by advancements in information and communication, and administrative and support service activities. Construction sector also saw growth at 0.7%, while the production sector managed a marginal 0.1% increase, with a slightly better 0.5% growth in manufacturing.

            Year-on-year, the implied GDP deflator for Q1 2023 rose by 6.3%, indicating a slowdown from the 7.3% seen in Q4 2022. This suggests a softening of inflationary pressures within the UK economy over this period.

            Full UK monthly GDP release here.

            Full UK quarterly GDP release here.

            EU clinches pivotal recovery fund after marathon talks

              EU leaders finally agreed on the landmark EUR 750B stimulus package after four days of marathon negotiations in Brussels. The package, funded by joint debt, would give out EUR 390B of grants and EUR 360B of low-interest loans to member states for post pandemic recovery.

              “This agreement sends a concrete signal that Europe is a force for action,” Charles Michel, president of the EU leaders’ council, said at a press conference afterward. “It is about a lot more than money. It is about workers and families, their jobs, their health and their well-being. I believe this agreement will be seen as a pivotal moment in Europe’s journey, but it will also launch us into the future.”

              ECB to hike 25bps, can EUR/CHF extend rebound?

                ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates today, and lift the main refinancing rate by 25bps to 4.00%, the highest level since 2001. The deposit rate, once negative, will correspondingly be raised to 3.50%. The bigger question is about forward guidance, but it’s unlikely for President Christine Lagarde to shift from the “data-dependent”, “meeting-by-meeting” approach for any future decisions. Nevertheless, the new economic projections could still reveal some hints on ECB’s thought.

                Some previews on ECB:

                As for market reactions, we’d be closely watching EUR/CHF. A short term bottom should be in place at 0.9670, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA will add to the case that whole correction from 1.0095 has completed today. Such development will also bolster the case that whole rise from 0.9407 (2022 low) is ready to resume later in the year. But, that might require something hawkish from ECB as a trigger.

                UK retail sales volume rose 0.5% mom in Jan, value up 0.6% mom

                  UK retail sales volume rose 0.5% mom in January, much better than expectation of -0.2% mom decline. Ex-fuel sale volume rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.0% mom.

                  Compare with a year ago, retail sales volume dropped -5.1% yoy, versus expectation of of -5.5% yoy. Ex-fuel sales volume dropped -5.3% yoy, matched expectations.

                  In value term, retail sales rose 0.6% mom, 4.1% yoy. Ex-fuel sales rose 0.5% mom, 3.7% yoy.

                  Full release here.

                  Australia GDP grew 3.3% qoq in Q3, technically out of recession

                    Australia GDP grew 3.3% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 2.5% qoq. Household spending drove the rebound by rising 7.9%. Final consumption expenditure rose 5.9%. Total gross fixed capital formation dropped -0.1%. Exports dropped -3.2% while imports rose 6.5%.

                    Head of National Accounts at the ABS, Michael Smedes said: “Following the record 7.0 per cent decline in the June quarter, Australia experienced a partial recovery in the September quarter. As a result, economic activity fell 3.8 per cent through the year to September quarter.”

                    Full release here.

                    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, “facing a once-in-a-century pandemic that has caused the greatest economic shock since the Great Depression, Australia has performed better on the health and economic fronts than nearly any other country in the world.”

                    “Technically, Australia’s recession may be over, but Australia’s economic recovery is not,” he said. “There is a lot of ground to make up and many Australian households and many Australian businesses are doing it tough – very tough.”

                    Trump’s full statement on tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese goods

                      Here is Trump’s own statement:

                      Today, following seven weeks of public notice, hearings, and extensive opportunities for comment, I directed the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to proceed with placing additional tariffs on roughly $200 billion of imports from China. The tariffs will take effect on September 24, 2018, and be set at a level of 10 percent until the end of the year. On January 1, the tariffs will rise to 25 percent. Further, if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports.

                      We are taking this action today as a result of the Section 301 process that the USTR has been leading for more than 12 months. After a thorough study, the USTR concluded that China is engaged in numerous unfair policies and practices relating to United States technology and intellectual property – such as forcing United States companies to transfer technology to Chinese counterparts. These practices plainly constitute a grave threat to the long-term health and prosperity of the United States economy.

                      For months, we have urged China to change these unfair practices, and give fair and reciprocal treatment to American companies. We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices. To counter China’s unfair practices, on June 15, I announced that the United States would impose tariffs of 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China, however, still refuses to change its practices – and indeed recently imposed new tariffs in an effort to hurt the United States economy.

                      As President, it is my duty to protect the interests of working men and women, farmers, ranchers, businesses, and our country itself. My Administration will not remain idle when those interests are under attack.

                      China has had many opportunities to fully address our concerns. Once again, I urge China’s leaders to take swift action to end their country’s unfair trade practices. Hopefully, this trade situation will be resolved, in the end, by myself and President Xi of China, for whom I have great respect and affection.

                      China said to offer 10m tonnes of tariff-free quota for US soybean imports

                        Reuters reported that China offered 10m tonnes of tariff-free quota for US soybean imports today. The quota is allocated to major Chinese and international soybean crushers at meeting called by the state planner.

                        This is seen as follow up actions, in-line with US President Donald Trump’s claim that China agreed to by USD 50B in farm products annually, after trade talks earlier this month. However, after that China has indeed bought at least 480k tones of Brazilian soybeans.

                        Fed minutes: No hesitate to take actions to address inflation risks

                          In the minutes of November 2-3 FOMC meeting, various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to “adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated” if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee’s objectives.

                          At the same time, because of the continuing considerable uncertainty about developments in supply chains, production logistics, and the course of the virus, a number of participants stressed that a “patient attitude toward incoming data remained appropriate to allow for careful evaluation of evolving supply chain developments and their implications for the labor market and inflation.”

                          “That said, participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives.”

                          Full minutes here.

                          Fed Evans: Probably going to be 2024 before interest rate hike

                            Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, it’s “probably going to be 2024 before we see interest rates start to rise,: That would come with “continuations of labor market improvement, unemployment falling to 4% and hopefully below that”

                            At that point, he said, “we can start to gently increase the federal funds rate, while it will still be accommodative in order to sort of achieve this overshooting and average 2% (inflation).”

                            ECB Lagarde: The coronavirus is a double economic shock

                              ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech, “the coronavirus is a double economic shock”. Its effect “hit activity extremely hard” but it has also “accelerated structural changes that will transform our lifestyles and our economies.”

                              “According to some estimates, the pandemic has brought forward the digital transition in Europe by seven years,” she added. 20% of work hours will move “permanently from office to home”, leading to “new patterns of demand and new ways of living”.

                              She noted that “the pandemic is still weighing heavily on our economies” and “we are not out of the woods yet”. But “with the tremendous progress made on vaccine technology, we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel”.

                              Still, “I can assure you that the ECB will continue to play its part, as we have done since the first days of the crisis,” she concluded.

                              Full speech here.

                              US consumer confidence slumps to 93.0, expectations signal recession risk

                                US consumer confidence deteriorated in June, with the Conference Board index falling from 98.3 to 93.0, missing expectations of 99.1. Present Situation Index dropped -6.4 points to 129.1. Expectations Index fell -4.6 points to 69.0, well below the 80 threshold that typically flags recession risks.

                                Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard noted that consumers were less upbeat about business conditions and job availability, with the latter weakening for a sixth straight month, albeit still consistent with a solid labor market.

                                More worryingly, the three key subcomponents of the Expectations Index—business outlook, job prospects, and future income—each declined. Consumers grew more pessimistic about economic conditions over the next six months, reflecting growing anxiety over both domestic headwinds and global uncertainties.

                                Full US consumer confidence release here.

                                Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in May, core at 2.9%

                                  Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in May, up from April’s 2.4% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, up from prior month’s 2.7% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual inflation rate came from services (+1.83 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.51 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.18 pp) and energy (+0.04 pp).

                                  EU CPI was finalized at 2.7% yoy, up from April’s 2.6% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Latvia (0.0%), Finland (0.4%) and Italy (0.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (5.8%), Belgium (4.9%) and Croatia (4.3%). Compared with April, annual inflation fell in eleven Member States, remained stable in two and rose in fourteen.

                                  Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

                                  New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -33, still a huge tourism-shaped hole

                                    New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose another 9 pts to -33 in June’s preliminary reading, up from may’s -41.8. Activity outlook rose to -29.1, up from -38.7. Looking at some details, export intentions rose to 17.1, from -32.2. Investment intentions rose to -21.6, up from -31.7. Employment intentions rose to -34.0, from -42.4.

                                    The improvement reflected New Zealand’s “continued steady progress out of lockdown”, but “levels remain very low”. ANZ also noted, emerging into Level 1 lockdown, “disruption has waned, and normality beckons”. But “there is a huge tourism-shaped hole” in the economy. Also, “people will feel comfortable going into a shop or restaurant – that’s a huge win – but whether they’ll feel comfortable spending money is another question again.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone retail sales dropped -11.7% in Apr, EU sales dropped -11.1%

                                      Eurozone retail sales dropped -11.7% mom in April, better than expectation of -15.0% mom. The volume of retail trade decreased by -27.7% mom for automotive fuels, by -17.0% mom for non-food products and by 5.5% for food, drinks and tobacco.

                                      EU retail sales dropped -11.1% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Malta (-25.1%), Romania (-22.3%) and Ireland (-21.9%). The only increase was observed in Finland (+0.3%), while the volume in Sweden remained stable.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Canada CPI rose to 0.7% yoy in Oct, mainly due to food component

                                        Canada CPI accelerated to 0.70% yoy in October, up from 0.50% yoy, above expectation of 0.4% yoy. CPI common rose to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, above expectation of 1.50% yoy. CPI median was unchanged at 1.9% yoy while CPI trimmed was unchanged at 1.8% yoy, both match expectations.

                                        StatCan noted: “Prices rose in five of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis in October. While the shelter component contributed the most to the year-over-year increase, the all-items index rose at a faster pace in October compared with September, mainly due to the food component. ”

                                        Full release here.

                                        US PPI down -0.1% mom in Feb, goods fell -0.2% mom, services dropped -0.1% mom

                                          US PPI for final demand dropped -0.1% mom in February, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Prices for goods dropped -0.2% mom while prices for services was down -0.1% mom. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2% mom.

                                          For the 12 months ended in February, PPI slowed from 5.7% yoy to 4.6% yoy, below expectation of 5.1% yoy. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.4yoy .

                                          Full release here.