Tue, Sep 22, 2020 @ 15:08 GMT

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.7411 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.7604 will bring stronger recovery. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7475 will bring retest of 0.7411 low first. Break will resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6838; (P) 0.6850; (R1) 0.6867; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first. While rebound from 0.6677 might extend, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6894 resistance to limit upside to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6810 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6723. Break will bring retest of 0.6670 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7362; (P) 0.7393; (R1) 0.7413; More…

AUD/USD’s corrective rise from 0.7309 is in progress. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7517) or above. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7064 last week but failed to sustain above 0.7031 key resistance and retreated. A short term top should be formed. Further decline is in favor this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. On the upside, firm break of 0.7031/64 is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6717). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6670 extended to as high as 0.6929 last week but formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolations first. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.6809 support to bring another rise. Break of 0.6894 resistance was taken as the first sign of medium term reversal. This is affirmed by the strong support by 55 day EMA. Above 0.6929 will target 0.7082 key resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 0.6809 support will revive bearishness and target 0.6670 low again.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7531).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s rebound was limited at 0.7915 last week and reversed. Subsequent sharp fall and break of 0.7712 support indicates resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.7500 key support next.

One of the interpretation of recent price actions is that price action from 0.7758 to 0.7915 were a three wave consolidation pattern. If that’s true, the fact that 0.7712 was well below 0.7758 indicates strong selling pressure even inside that consolidation. That is, decline from 0.7915 would then be a very powerful move that could takes out 0.7500 easily. We’ll keep an eye on it to see if there is any further downside acceleration ahead.

On the upside, above 0.7769 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7915 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7031 extended to as low as 0.6682 last week. The development affirmed our view that corrective rise from 0.6670 has completed and larger down trend is ready to resume. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Decisive break of 0.6670 will target next key support at 0.6008.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). This will remain the favor case as long as 0.7031 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6444 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is mildly in favor with 0.6213 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound from 0.5506 to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6776 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As a short term top was formed, further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.7064 holds. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.5506 extended higher last week and outlook is unchanged. Such rebound is seen as a correction and should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s choppy rebound from 0.6776 extended higher last week. But overall outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.7064 are seen as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 0.6776 as the second leg. Upside should be limited by 0.7064 resistance to bring one more down leg. On the downside, below 0.6922 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6776 support and below. However, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6741). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD stayed in range of 0.6776/7064 last week and outlook is unchanged. The correction from 0.7064 is expected to extend with at least one more down leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7643; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7692; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.8135 is in progress. The pair should target 0.7500 key support level next. At this point, we’ll stay cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7784 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.7413 was contained well above 0.7135 support last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise remains in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will resume the rally from 0.5506 and target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rebound from 0.5506 is strong and steep. Bullish convergence condition is seen in monthly MACD. 55 month EMA is also violated. The case of long term reversal is building up. Focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there will confirm bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.7635 will retain bearishness.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s down trend continued last week with downside acceleration to as low as 0.6433. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for further fall. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.6933 to 0.6662 from 0.6750 at 0.6479. On the downside, break of 0.6592 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 0.6750 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s down trend resumed last week and dropped to as low as 0.6123. There is no sign of bottoming yet and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6086 next. Some support could be seen fro 0.6008 key support to bring recovery. On the upside, above 0.6325 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But upside should be limited by 0.6433/6884 resistance zone to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6825; (P) 0.6857; (R1) 0.6909; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6754 resumed by taking out 0.6862 and hits as high as 0.6889 so far. Such development suggests that pull back from 0.6929 has completed and rebound from 0.6670 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.6929 first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. On the downside, break of 0.6800 will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD rose further to 0.6569 last week but reversed from there. The development suggests short term topping at 0.6569, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 0.6670 key resistance. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 0.6235 support. Break should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD recovered to 0.6933 last week but quickly reversed. As it’s staying in consolidation above 0.6849, initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Break of 0.6849 will turn bias to the downside for 0.6754 support. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case. On the upside, however, break of 0.6933 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s consolidative trading continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. We’d still expect correction from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

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