Tue, Sep 22, 2020 @ 15:16 GMT

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7454; (P) 0.7480; (R1) 0.7501; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 is still in progress and could target 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. At this point, we’d still expect strong resistance from this zone to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8022; (P) 0.8073; (R1) 0.8104; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.8124 with today’s retreat in AUD/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. As long as 0.7807 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish for further rally. Above 0.8124 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7799; (P) 0.7821; (R1) 0.7852; More…

AUD/USD retreats mildly after hitting 0.7844 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise could still be seen. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886) to form a short term top. Meanwhile, break of 0.7964 support will suggest that rebound from 0.7500 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7500.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8032). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6589; (P) 0.6613; (R1) 0.6642; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6662 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement from 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6661) to limit upside. Break of 0.6509 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6433 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.6662 will bring stronger corrective rise to 61.8% retracement at 0.6803.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7527; (P) 0.7548; (R1) 0.7561; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7523 intact, further rise is expected. Break of 0.7635 will extend the rise from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout at. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6444 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is mildly in favor with 0.6213 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound from 0.5506 to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6723; (P) 0.6743; (R1) 0.6752; More…

AUD/USD drops notably today but stays in range of 0.6677/6823. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7738; (P) 0.7754; (R1) 0.7771; More…

AUD/USD rises to as high as 0.7796 so far today. The break of 0.7784 minor resistance is taken as the first sign of near term reversal. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. On the downside, below 0.7737 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7642 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7145; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7222; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the upside for long term EMA level at 0.7311 next. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.7063 support will now suggest short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6763). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6584; (P) 0.6604; (R1) 0.6620; More….

AUD/USD’s down trend resumes after brief consolidation, taking out 0.6581 temporary and hits as low as 0.6569 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Next near term target is 100% projection of 0.6933 to 0.6662 from 0.6750 at 0.6479. On the upside, above 0.6638 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6706; (P) 0.6721; (R1) 0.6732; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.6677 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618. On the upside, above 0.6822 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6764; (P) 0.6781; (R1) 0.6795; More…

AUD/USD’s breach of 0.6769 temporary low suggests resumption of fall from 0.6929. Intraday bias is now turned back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6803 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But as we see that corrective rise from 0.6670 has completed at 0.6929, any recovery should be limited well below 0.6929 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7631; (P) 0.7657; (R1) 0.7684; More…

At this point, further rise could still be seen in AUD/USD for 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we’d expect strong resistance from this resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7510 minor support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for this key near term support level.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treading price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6967; (P) 0.6983; (R1) 0.7002; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6962 is extending. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.7069 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6962 will resume the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7069 will indicate near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7205 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7930; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7983; More…

Despite edging higher to 0.7972, AUD/USD quickly retreated back to familiar range. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Correction from 0.8065 might extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. Above 0.7972 will target a test on 0.8065 resistance first. Firm break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6845; (P) 0.6863; (R1) 0.6885; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6894 resistance to limit upside to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6810 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6723. Break will bring retest of 0.6670 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s rally continued last week and reached as high as 0.7988, meeting 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950. A temporary top is formed there. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation first. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection at 0.8335 next. However, break of 0.7785 will argue that deeper pull back in under way and could target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7628).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

AUD/USD Monthly Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7798; (P) 0.7823; (R1) 0.7850; More…

AUD/USD breaches 0.7798 again today but there is no follow through selling below 0.7807 near term support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 support will indicate near term reversal. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7674) first. Meanwhile, rebound from 0.7807 will retain bullishness. Above 0.7907 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. In case of further rally, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7807 is the first signal that such correction is focused. Break of 0.7328 will bring retest of 0.6826 low.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7553; (R1) 0.7582; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside with fall from 0.7740 still in progress. Whole rebound from 0.7158 should be completed. The pair should now target lower side of the range at 0.7144/7158 support zone. On the upside, break of 0.7631 resistance is needed to indicate completion of such decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7260; (P) 0.7321; (R1) 0.7355; More…

Intraday bias in AUD?USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current down trend from 0.8135 should extend to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7225 first. Break will target 100% projection at 0.7085 next. On the upside, above 0.7322 minor resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 0.7452 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) should pave the way to retest 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance might indicate medium term bottoming. But we’ll continue to favor the bearish view as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

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