Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7823; (P) 0.7871; (R1) 0.7897; More…

The correction from 0.8065 is still in progress and with 0.7948 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could be seen in AUD/USD. But we’d expect strong support from 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7948 will argue that the pull back is completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8065.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6564; (P) 0.6606; (R1) 0.6651; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Further rally would be seen to 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next. On the downside, below 0.6567 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 extended to 0.7608 last week but lost momentum since then. Bearish divergence condition is also seen in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 0.7448 will argue that such rebound is already finished and will turn bias to the downside for 0.7144 key support level. Above 0.7608 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7654; (P) 0.7674; (R1) 0.7698; More…

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.7624 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall, near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7896 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Decisive break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124. And, AUD/USD should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7619; (R1) 0.7662; More…

AUD/USD retreats after hitting as high as 0.7711. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of medium term range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, below 0.7653 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7534 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7638; (P) 0.7667; (R1) 0.7689; More…

AUD/USD pull back from 0.7711 accelerates to as low as 0.7603 so far. But it’s still staying above 0.7534 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is in favor as long as 0.7534 support holds. Above 0.7711 will target 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, break of 0.7534 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8096) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7281; (P) 0.7300; (R1) 0.7314; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.7105 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7425 resistance. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.7530 support turned resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.7283 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7732 was limited at 0.7896 and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7732 will resume the decline from 0.8124 and target medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first. This will also affirm the case of medium term reversal. On the upside, however, break of 0.7896 will extend the rebound to 61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7732 at 0.7974 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will firm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7804; (P) 0.7832; (R1) 0.7873; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as it’s still bounded in range of 0.7758/7988. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key near term support. On the upside, above 0.7988 will extend the rebound to retest 0.8135.At this point, there is no strong case for a range breakout yet and 0.7500/8135 could hold for a while.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7675; (P) 0.7703; (R1) 0.7723; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hour MACD. Thus, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7530) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7517; (P) 0.7552; (R1) 0.7588; More…

Further rise is in favor in AUD/USD with 0.7448 minor support intact. But upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6573; (P) 0.6592; (R1) 0.6623; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.6618 resistance will affirm the case that rise from 0.6480 is the third leg of the pattern from 0.6442 low. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 0.6666 resistance, and then 100% projection of 0.6442 to 0.6666 from 0.6480 at 0.6704. Nevertheless, break of 0.6480 support will bring retest of 0.6442 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7915; (P) 0.7947; (R1) 0.7994; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rise from 0.7500 is in progress for 0.8124 high. Break there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7804 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7833; (P) 0.7861; (R1) 0.7879; More…

AUD/USD lost momentum after hitting 0.7896 and retreated. A temporary top was formed and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor for the moment. Break of 0.7896 will target a test on 0.8124 high. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7732 will resume the decline from 0.8124 and target medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will firm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6757; (P) 0.6799; (R1) 0.6828; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective recovery from 0.6670 should have completed at 0.6929 already. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 0.6670 low first. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6841 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6929 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6895; (P) 0.6916; (R1) 0.6934; More…

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.6864 is still extending and intraday bias remains neutral. Further recovery could be seen but upside should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7393; (P) 0.7440; (R1) 0.7469; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. We’d continue to expect strong support from 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414 to complete the correction from 0.8006. On the upside, break of of 0.7598 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance first. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favor the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7872; (P) 0.7894; (R1) 0.7922; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Correction from 0.8065 might extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. Above 0.7962 will target a test on 0.8065 resistance first. Firm break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7775 extends higher. Further rise would be seen to 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886). On the downside, break of 0.7694 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8034). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6602; (P) 0.6624; (R1) 0.6649; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.6480 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.6442. Further rally would be seen to 0.6666 resistance, and then 100% projection of 0.6442 to 0.6666 from 0.6480 at 0.6704. Nevertheless, break of 0.6548 support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.