Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6653; (P) 0.6680; (R1) 0.6719; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6572 extends higher today but stays well below 0.6804 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook also stays bearish as long as 0.6804 resistance holds, and down trend resumption through 0.6563 low is in favor at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 should indicate completion of whole fall from 0.7156, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7358; (R1) 0.7387; More…

AUD/USD is still staying in consolidation from 0.7288 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7443 support turned resistance intact, and further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole fall from 0.8006 and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7710; (P) 0.7730; (R1) 0.7768; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 0.7671 temporary continues. With upside limited well below 0.7915 resistance, near term outlook remains bearish. Break of 0.7671 will resume whole decline from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key support level next. However, break of 0.7915 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7391; (P) 0.7418; (R1) 0.7439; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Recovery from 0.7345 could extend higher. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7736; (P) 0.7761; (R1) 0.7809; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen. With 0.7673 support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, above 0.7890 will resume the rally from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, firm break of 0.7673 support should extend the correction from 0.8006 with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7338; (P) 0.7398; (R1) 0.7431; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7660 resumed by breaking 0.7342 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7164 support next. On the upside, above 0.7457 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7660 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7374; (P) 0.7398; (R1) 0.7417; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7345 stalled at 0.7443 and was rejected below 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias is turned neutral with focus back on 0.7345 and 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Decisive break of this support zone will extend the larger fall from 0.8315 to 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. On the upside, above 0.7443 will bring another recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. Firm break there will resume the long term down trend from 1.1079 and take 0.6008 support next (2008 low). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6919; (P) 0.6983; (R1) 0.7016; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6828 to 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7127; (P) 0.7160; (R1) 0.7204; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.7003 is in progress for 0.7206 resistance first. Break will likely resume larger rebound from 0.6722 through 0.7295 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.7115 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.7003/7052 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, break of medium term channel resistance is the first sign of bullish reversal. But there is no confirmation yet. As long as 0.7393 resistance holds, larger fall from 0.8135 is still expected to resume later. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly last week but failed to break through 0.7837 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. on the upside, break of 0.7837 will suggest that the correction from 0.8006 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 0.7620 will target 0.7563 support. Firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6665; (P) 0.6706; (R1) 0.6734; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation pattern from 0.6563 is still extending. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7495; (P) 0.7516; (R1) 0.7537; More…

Despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. On the downside, below 0.7465 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6564; (P) 0.6606; (R1) 0.6651; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Further rally would be seen to 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next. On the downside, below 0.6567 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7070; (P) 0.7134; (R1) 0.7166; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as as 0.7084 so far as fall from 0.7314 extends. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Larger decline from 0.8135 is likely resuming. Break of 0.7084 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, break of 0.7161 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7648; (P) 0.7684; (R1) 0.7703; More…

AUD/USD is staying in tight range of 0.7605/7740 and intraday bias remains neutral first. The pair continued to lose upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7560) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6596; (P) 0.6617; (R1) 0.6649; More….

AUD/USD dipped to 0.6581 in early trading but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Some more consolidation could be seen. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.6750 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 0.6581 will resume recent decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7537; (P) 0.7584; (R1) 0.7609; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7514 so far today. Break of 0.7531 confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.8124. Intraday bias remains on the downside for next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. For now, near term outlook will stays bearish as long as 0.7652 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8033). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7786; (P) 0.7807; (R1) 0.7846; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7712. With 0.7892 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6925; (P) 0.6938; (R1) 0.6959; More…

AUD/USD rises to as high as 0.6955 so far today. Break of 0.6938 suggests resumption of whole rise from 0.6670. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. On the downside, break of 0.6911 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.6838 support holds.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7502).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7112; (P) 0.7156; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7054/7206 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 support should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.