AUD/USD’s down trend resumed last week and dropped to as low as 0.6123. There is no sign of bottoming yet and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6086 next. Some support could be seen fro 0.6008 key support to bring recovery. On the upside, above 0.6325 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But upside should be limited by 0.6433/6884 resistance zone to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7643; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7692; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.8135 is in progress. The pair should target 0.7500 key support level next. At this point, we’ll stay cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7784 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

AUD/USD rose further to 0.6569 last week but reversed from there. The development suggests short term topping at 0.6569, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 0.6670 key resistance. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 0.6235 support. Break should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6825; (P) 0.6857; (R1) 0.6909; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6754 resumed by taking out 0.6862 and hits as high as 0.6889 so far. Such development suggests that pull back from 0.6929 has completed and rebound from 0.6670 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.6929 first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. On the downside, break of 0.6800 will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

AUD/USD’s decline accelerated to as low as 0.5506 last week and recovered after hitting 0.5507 long term projection level. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5506 will target 261.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5118.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6783; (P) 0.6819; (R1) 0.6848; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.6873 minor resistance. Firm break there should confirm short term bottoming at 0.6680, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6982) and above. On the downside, though, break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend to next fibonacci level at 0.6461.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7513; (P) 0.7542; (R1) 0.7565; More…

With 0.7485 minor support intact, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside. Current rally should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. On the downside, break of 0.7485 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.6933 last week but quickly reversed. As it’s staying in consolidation above 0.6849, initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Break of 0.6849 will turn bias to the downside for 0.6754 support. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case. On the upside, however, break of 0.6933 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8006 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 0.7105. 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 was already met. While deeper fall might be seen, we’d look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound. On the upside break of 0.7288 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. Subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

AUD/USD continued last week but it started to lose momentum approaching 0.7031 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. On the downside, break of 0.6856 support will suggest short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for pull back towards 0.6569 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6710).

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

AUD/USD’s consolidative trading continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. We’d still expect correction from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6831 support last week confirmed resumption of fall from 0.7295. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.6722 low first. Break will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618 next. On the upside, above 0.6868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 0.7082 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish. . The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume target 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7295 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6616 last week as rise from 0.5506 resumed. As it retreated since then, initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 0.6402 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6616 at 0.6192.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to judge the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6552; (P) 0.6608; (R1) 0.6641; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6870 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6870 at 0.6497. Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support. On the upside, above 0.6632 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7774 last week but quickly reversed from there. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.7774 resistance will suggest that pull back from 0.7890 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7664 will resume the fall from 0.7890 to 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

AUD/USD stayed in range below 0.6444 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral first and another rise could be seen as long as 0.6253 support holds. Break of 0.6444 will resume the rebound form 0.5506 to 0.6670 key resistance next. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7698; (P) 0.7739; (R1) 0.7805; More…

AUD/USD rebounded after hitting 0.7671 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, the pair is staying in a near term falling channel. And, with 0.7915 resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected. Below 0.76171 will turn bias to the downside and resume whole fall from 0.8135 to 0.7500 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.6662 last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week. Decisive break of 0.6670 low will confirm down trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6933 to 0.6678 from 0.6774 at 0.6616 and then 100% projection at 0.6519. On the upside, break of 0.6774 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.6769 temporary low last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of the consolidation should be limited by 0.6841 resistance to bring fall resumption. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.6670 should have completed at 0.6929. Break of 0.6769 will extend the fall from 0.6929 to retest 0.6670 low. However, break of 0.6841 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.5506 extended higher last week. While further rally could be seen, we’d continue to look for topping signal on next rise. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD is a sign of loss of upside momentum. AUD/USD will also face 55 week EMA (now at 0.6702) and then 0.6826 (2016 low). On the downside, break of 0.6050 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.5506 is stronger than expected, we’re seeing it as corrective the fall from 0.8135 only (2018 high) to 0.5506. Strong resistance should be seen from 0.6826 (2016 low) to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.6826 will argue that rise from 0.5506 is at least corrective the fall from 1.1079 (2011 high). Stronger rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7365).

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. As long as 0.8135 resistance holds, we’d still extend another fall to 0.4773 (2001 low). We’ll maintain this view until we see clear upside, medium term impulsive structure develops.