AUD/USD dropped sharply to 0.6849 last week before forming a temporary low and recovered. Current development suggests that corrective rebound from 0.6670 has completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Further decline is mildly in favor as long as 0.6930 minor resistance holds. Break of 0.6849 will target 0.6754 support to confirm this bearish case. However, break of 0.6930 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7487).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6929 resumed last week and hit as low as 0.6754. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6795 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6680 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is expected in AUD/USD with 0.6873 resistance intact. Break of 0.6680 will target next fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6873 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7031 last week be reversed from there. The breach of 0.6938 resistance turned support suggests short term topping. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.6838 support first. Break will target 0.6754 near term structural support next. On the upside, though , break of 0.7031 will resume the corrective rebound from 0.6670 to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7506).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7243 last week but retreated quickly again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Upside momentum remain unconvincing, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of 0.7076 support should confirm short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support, for correcting the whole rise form 0.5506. Though, break of 0.7243 resistance will extend the rise to 0.7311 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6790). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7649; (P) 0.7703; (R1) 0.7731; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 0.7671 temporary low might extend. With upside limited well below 0.7915 resistance, near term outlook remains bearish. Break of 0.7671 will resume whole decline from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key support level next. However, break of 0.7915 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

AUD/USD recovered last week and hit as high as 0.6657. But such recovery is currently viewed as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.6662 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement from 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6661) to limit upside. Break of 0.6509 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6433 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.6662 will bring stronger corrective rise to 61.8% retracement at 0.6803.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.6586 last week as larger down trend finally resumed. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.6750 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 0.6586 will extend recent decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 0.6769 last week and the development suggests that rebound from 0.6670 has completed at 0.6929. But as a temporary low was formed with subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6841 minor resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.6769 will resume the fall to retest 0.6670 low. However, break of 0.6841 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD turned into consolidation last week but outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and further decline is expected with 0.6774 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low would confirm larger down trend resumption. However, on the upside, break of 0.6774 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7005 resumed last week by taking out 0.7209. The development also suggests that corrective fall from 0.7413 has completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 0.7413 resistance first. Break there will resume larger rise form 0.5506 to 0.7635 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.7095 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise near term outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6898) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Yet, AUD/USD struggled to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). It’s also limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Hence, there is not enough evidence for reversal yet. Down trend from 1.1079 could still extend through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6279; (P) 0.6306; (R1) 0.6348; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 4 hour 55 EMA but stays below 0.6444 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. on the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound from 0.5506 to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.7443 last week but quickly recovered again. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Another fall could still be seen, and break of 0.7443 will resume the whole corrective pattern from 0.8006. But we’d expect strong support from 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7615 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7890/8006 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6739; (P) 0.6760; (R1) 0.6772; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6677 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7546; (P) 0.7574; (R1) 0.7593; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 0.7476 will resume the corrective pattern from 0.8006 towards 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7644 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation from 0.7288 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7442 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. But subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

AUD/USD rose to as high as 0.6938 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. For now, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.6800 support holds. On the upside, above 0.6938 will extend the rebound from 0.6670 to 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. However, break of 0.6800 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6754 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7502).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD continued to stay in range of 0.6372/6569 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 0.5506 might still extend higher. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. on the downside, break of 0.6372 should indicate confirm short term reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163 first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to judge the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7393 last week but reversed from there. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 0.7199 support. Decisive break there will suggest that the corrective rebound from 0.7020 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 0.7020 low. On the upside, above 0.7300 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. In that case, corrective rise from 0.7020 would extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound might be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD recovered after edging lower to 0.7476 last week, but upside is limited below 0.7644 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7476 will resume the corrective pattern from 0.8006 towards 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7644 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.