AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6269 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6398 resistance holds. Break of 0.6269 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7393; (P) 0.7419; (R1) 0.7467; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery’s from 0.7370 extends higher today but it’s staying in range of 0.7370/7516. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 0.7516 resistance holds, deeper fall is expected. Below 0.7328 will resume the decline from 0.7748 to 0.7144/7158 support zone. On the upside, break of 0.7516 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8091) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6889; (P) 0.6959; (R1) 0.7008; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7135 is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for 0.6868 support. Firm break there argue that whole rebound from 0.6680 is finished, and bring retest of 0.6680 low. On the upside, above 0.7030 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7352; (R1) 0.7371; More…

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7381 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.7201 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend fro 0.8135. In that case, 0.7158 medium term support will be the next target. On the upside, above 0.7302 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. And, even in case that correction from 0.7201 extends with another rise, we’d expect upside to be limited by 0.7425 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a correction should be seen first, with stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7201 at 0.7558. The down trend from 0.8135 will resume after the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7350; (P) 0.7374; (R1) 0.7405; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and some consolidations could be seen. But outlook stays bearish as long as 0.7443 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120. However, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7168; (P) 0.7178; (R1) 0.7188; More…

AUD/USD formed a temporary low at 0.7151 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7246 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7151 will extend the fall from 0.7393 to retest 0.7020 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.7246 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside. Rebound from 0.7020 could then probably head to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6708; (P) 0.6739; (R1) 0.6762; More…

Immediate focus is now on 0.6693 support in AUD/USD. Firm break there will l resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, break of 0.6782 resistance should now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7063; (P) 0.7077; (R1) 0.7099; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.7040 low and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Consolidation from 0.7040 might extends with another recovery. By upside should be limited by 0.7159 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. on the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7902; (P) 0.7934; (R1) 0.7977; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA. But it’s staying below 0.7988 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 0.7988 will extend the rebound to retest 0.8135. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key near term support. At this point, there is no strong case for a range breakout yet and 0.7500/8135 could hold for a while.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7211; (P) 0.7251; (R1) 0.7275; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is probably ready to resume. Further fall should be seen to 0.7169 support first. Break will target 0.7105 and below. On the upside, break of 0.7369 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6952; (P) 0.6983; (R1) 0.7004; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Price actions from 0.7064 are seeing as a consolidation pattern. Upside should be limited by 0.7064 to bring another falling leg. On the downside, below 0.6922 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6776 support and below. However, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation from 0.7288 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7442 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. But subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

AUD/USD recovered further last week as correction from 0.7054 extends. Further rise might be seen initially this week. But upside should bel limited below 0.7295resistance to bring another decline. We’re favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside break of 0.7054 support will affirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7459; (P) 0.7500; (R1) 0.7532; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.7539 in AUD/USD, just ahead of 0.7555 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7372 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7555 should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. However, break of 0.7372 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6723; (P) 0.6749; (R1) 0.6788; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside as rebound from 0.6677 is extending higher. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6894 to limit upside to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6710 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7413 high last week suggests resumption of whole rise form 0.5506. Further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7351 support holds. Next target is 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there should confirm reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Though, rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness for another low through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7078; (P) 0.7123; (R1) 0.7157; More…

AUD/USD retreated sharply after hitting 0.7168 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is in favor as long as 0.7056 minor support holds. Above 0.7168 will target 0.7295 resistance. Break will resume whole rebound from 0.6722. On the downside, though, break of 0.7056 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7003 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7387; (P) 0.7416; (R1) 0.7456; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7309 short term bottom continues. Further rally could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7508) and possibly above. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.7309 low first. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6775; (P) 0.6804; (R1) 0.6855; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 0.6677 is extending. But outlook is unchanged that such rebound is seen as a corrective move. Hence, upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6723 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7347; (P) 0.7389; (R1) 0.7461; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD is unchanged. Consolidation from 0.7309 is still in progress. Above 0.7483 will bring stronger rebound. But in that case, upside should below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.