AUDUSD Outlook

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7237 resumed last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 0.7237 to 0.6893 from 0.7067 at at 0.6854 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.6723. On the upside, above 0.6952 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5913. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout. However, sustained break of 0.6756 will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.6806) holds.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7237 resumed by breaking through 0.6893 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Break of 61.8% projection of 0.7237 to 0.6893 from 0.7067 at at 0.6854 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.6723. On the upside, above 0.6952 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5913. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout. However, sustained break of 0.6756 will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Rebound from 0.6893 could have completed at 0.7067. Below 0.6952 will target a retest on 0.6893 low. However, break of 0.7067 will extend the rebound to 61.8% retracement of 0.7237 to 0.6893 at 0.7106.

In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5913. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout. However, sustained break of 0.6756 will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal.