AUD/USD edged higher last week as rebound from 0.7105 extended. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7452 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7771. On the downside, however, break of 0.7452 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7386) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7035; (P) 0.7094; (R1) 0.7135; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the downside for retesting 0.6966. Firm break there and sustained trading below 0.6991 will extend the down trend from 0.8006. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. On the upside, above 0.7167 will resume the rebound to 0.7313 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7063; (P) 0.7077; (R1) 0.7099; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.7040 low and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Consolidation from 0.7040 might extends with another recovery. By upside should be limited by 0.7159 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. on the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7084; (P) 0.7109; (R1) 0.7134; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and resume larger down trend from 0.8006. On the upside, above 0.7223 and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7239) will be the first sign of major bottoming and bring stronger rise to 0.7555 resistance.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD turned into sideway trading above 0.6639 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further decline is expected as long as 0.6759 minor resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6639 will resume the fall from 0.6870 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6870 at 0.6497 next. On the upside, break of 0.6759 will bring retest of 0.6870 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6462; (P) 0.6501; (R1) 0.6523; More…

Focus remains on 0.6433 support in AUD/USD. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend and target 61.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6314 and then 100% projection at 0.6086. On the upside, break of 0.6684 will extend the correction form 0.6433. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6803.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6864 extended higher to 0.7022 last week. The development suggests short term bottoming at 0.6864 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. More importantly, decline form 0.7295 might have completed with three waves down to 0.6864. Initial bias stays on the upside this week first. Break of 0.7069 resistance will target 0.7205 structural resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6962 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6864 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6866; (P) 0.6884; (R1) 0.6918; More…

AUD/USD rises to sa high as 0.6929 so far as rebound from 0.6670 extends. The break of 0.6894 resistance complete a double bottom pattern (0.6677, 0.6670), which is also an early sign of medium term bullish reversal. Intraday bias is now on the upside for retesting 0.7082 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.6809 support is needed to signal completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6939; (P) 0.6963; (R1) 0.6998; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery lost momentum again ahead of 0.7064 high. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we’d still expect correction from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6527; (P) 0.6542; (R1) 0.6560; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6520 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 0.6442 haws completed at 0.6594 already, after rejection by 55 D EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6442 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870, and target 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6594 at 0.6329 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6594 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7227; (P) 0.7256; (R1) 0.7276; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Another rise could be seen with 0.7180 minor support intact. On the upside, above 0.7295 will target 0.7393 cluster resistance (61.8% projection of 0.6722 to 0.7235 from 0.7076 at 0.7393). We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside to complete the rebound from 0.6722. On the downside, break of 0.7180 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7076 support. However, sustained break of 0.7393 will indicate bullish reversal and target 100% projection at 0.7589 next).

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7025; (P) 0.7046; (R1) 0.7059; More…

Further decline is expected in AUD/USD for 0.7020 support. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7148 resistance holds. However, firm break of 0.7148 will suggest that correction from 0.7020 is extending with another rise. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 0.7393 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6079; (P) 0.6146; (R1) 0.6210; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to limit upside to complete the corrective rise from 0.5506. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7050; (P) 0.7086; (R1) 0.7141; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.6169 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7168 next. Break there will target 0.7304 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.7061 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6871 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7755; (P) 0.7773; (R1) 0.7786; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise remains mildly in favor with 0.7725 minor support intact. Above 0.7809 will target 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. However, below 0.7725 will bring retest of 0.7642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6393; (P) 0.6448; (R1) 0.6492; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 0.6411 minor support as well as 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.6411 will indicate rejection by 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508) , and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6269 low. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.6508/10 will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 might be completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should then be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.6700).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7044; (P) 0.7107; (R1) 0.7158; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.7005 support. Break will resume corrective fall from 0.7413. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, above 0.7128 minor resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6915) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7113; (P) 0.7130; (R1) 0.7144; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point and some more consolidations could be seen. With 0.7342 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7413, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. However, firm break of 0.7243 will bring retest of 0.7413 high.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6916) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8022; (P) 0.8073; (R1) 0.8104; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.8124 with today’s retreat in AUD/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. As long as 0.7807 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish for further rally. Above 0.8124 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7072; (P) 0.7093; (R1) 0.7128; More…

Further rise is expected in AUD/USD with 0.6948 minor support intact. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7179). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.