Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7057; (P) 0.7078; (R1) 0.7101; More…

AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.7022 so far today. The break of 0.7040 low confirms resumption of the down trend from 0.8135. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990. Break there will target 100% projection at 0.6885. On the upside, break of 0.7099 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stays bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s sharp decline last week suggests that rebound form 0.7158 is completed at 0.7740 already. As the pair drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered, initial bias is neutral this week first. Nonetheless, further decline is expected as long as 0.7635 minor resistance holds. Break of 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7363; (P) 0.7401; (R1) 0.7426; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 0.7390 could extend. But even in case of another rise through 0.7483, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7440 resistance last week confirmed resumption of rise from 0.6966. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. On the downside, below 0.7465 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6448; (P) 0.6485; (R1) 0.6508; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 0.6541. Downside should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6437) to bring rebound. Break of 0.6541, and sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508, will argue that whole corrective fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6674) next.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7155; (P) 0.7193; (R1) 0.7213; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7128 support dampens our original bullish view and indicates that corrective rebound from 0.6992 has completed at 0.7313. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 support zone. Further break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006, and carries larger bearish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7313 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7123; (P) 0.7156; (R1) 0.7178; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 0.7076 support should confirm short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support, for correcting the whole rise form 0.5506. Though, break of 0.7243 resistance will extend the rise to 0.7311 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6790). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD dropped further to as low as 0.7054 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7228 resistance holds. Current development suggests that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Below 0.7054 will target a retest on 0.6966 low first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7095; (P) 0.7142; (R1) 0.7192; More…

AUD/USD recovered quickly after hitting 0.7089 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7313 resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 0.6992 should have completed there. Below 0.7089 will target 0.6991/2 support zone. Further break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006, and carries larger bearish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7614; (P) 0.7668; (R1) 0.7700; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. Correction from 0.8006 could extend lower. But still, overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.7563 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7837 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.8006 high. However, firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7620; (P) 0.7687; (R1) 0.7728; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7673 support suggests that rebound from 0.7530 has completed at 0.7890 already. More importantly, corrective pattern from 0.8006 high should now be in it’s third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7530 support first. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there, which coincides with 0.7413 key resistance turned support, to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6668; (P) 0.6736; (R1) 0.6778; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

AUD/USD rose to as high as 0.7302 last week but retreated ahead of 0.7314 key resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. ON the upside, decisive break of 0.7314 will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, break of 0.7182 will suggests that rebound from 0.7020 has completed and maintain medium term bearishness. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6951; (P) 0.6980; (R1) 0.6997; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.6938 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Above 0.7007 will resume the rise from 0.6864 and target 0.7205 key resistance next. However, break of 0.6938 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6864 low instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6059; (P) 0.6130; (R1) 0.6236; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.5506 is still in progress. Such rebound is seen as a correction and should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7683; (P) 0.7764; (R1) 0.7809; More…

AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.7890 extended lower, but stays above 0.7673 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise remains in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7890 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, break of 0.7673 should extend the correction from 0.8006 with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.5506 extended higher last week. While further rally could be seen, we’d continue to look for topping signal on next rise. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD is a sign of loss of upside momentum. AUD/USD will also face 55 week EMA (now at 0.6702) and then 0.6826 (2016 low). On the downside, break of 0.6050 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.5506 is stronger than expected, we’re seeing it as corrective the fall from 0.8135 only (2018 high) to 0.5506. Strong resistance should be seen from 0.6826 (2016 low) to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.6826 will argue that rise from 0.5506 is at least corrective the fall from 1.1079 (2011 high). Stronger rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7365).

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. As long as 0.8135 resistance holds, we’d still extend another fall to 0.4773 (2001 low). We’ll maintain this view until we see clear upside, medium term impulsive structure develops.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7241; (P) 0.7279; (R1) 0.7334; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for some consolidations. But another rise is mildly in favor with 0.7320 minor resistance intact. Below 0.7219 will target 0.7105 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7115; (P) 0.7149; (R1) 0.7205; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. A short term bottom is in place at 0.7084 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rebound could be seen towards 55 day EMA (now at 0.7322). But upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7718; (P) 0.7739; (R1) 0.7773; More…

With 0.7676 minor support intact, further rise is expected in AUD/USD. Rebound from 0.7530 should target 0.7848 resistance. Firm break there should confirm completion of the corrective fall from 0.8006 at 0.7530. Retest of 0.8006 high should be seen next. On the downside, below 0.7676 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But for now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 0.7583 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.