Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6966; (P) 0.6986; (R1) 0.6999; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Rebound from 0.6831 should have completed with three waves up to 0.7082. Break of 0.6910 support will confirm and pave the way back to retest 0.6831 support next. Such development will also argue that fall from 0.7295 is in progress for 0.6722 low. On the upside, above 0.7008 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7649; (P) 0.7703; (R1) 0.7731; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 0.7671 temporary low might extend. With upside limited well below 0.7915 resistance, near term outlook remains bearish. Break of 0.7671 will resume whole decline from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key support level next. However, break of 0.7915 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7260; (P) 0.7280; (R1) 0.7312; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. With 0.7315 minor resistance intact, further fall is in favor. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.7411 short term bottom last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 0.7566 will bring stronger rebound. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7411 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6905; (P) 0.6946; (R1) 0.6980; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7027 minor resistance indicates temporary bottoming at 0.6910. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But still, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds. Break of 0.6910 will extend larger decline from 0.8006 to 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7107; (P) 0.7129; (R1) 0.7163; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7209 resistance will resume the rebound from 0.7005. That will also indication of completion of correction from 0.7413. In this case, further rally would be seen to retest 0.7413 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.7100 will suggest that correction from 0.7413 is resuming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7005, and then 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6908) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.6769 temporary low last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of the consolidation should be limited by 0.6841 resistance to bring fall resumption. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.6670 should have completed at 0.6929. Break of 0.6769 will extend the fall from 0.6929 to retest 0.6670 low. However, break of 0.6841 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7292; (P) 0.7329; (R1) 0.7403; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rally should now target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 0.7135 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6779; (P) 0.6812; (R1) 0.6845; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6894 resistance will extend the rally from 0.6269 towards 0.7156 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6796 support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for pullback to 0.6689 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6169 continued last week but failed to break through 0.6539 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6564), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

In the long term picture, current medium term downside momentum raises the chance of resumption of long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). It’s still a bit early to judge the chance. But break of 0.5506 will target 0.4773 (2001 low).

AUD/USD dropped further to as low as 0.7288 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some consolidations could be seen. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7443 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. However, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. But subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7273; (P) 0.7297; (R1) 0.7340; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.7201 short term bottom is in progress for 0.7346 support turned resistance. Buy upside is expected to be limited there to bring larger decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the fall from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7142; (P) 0.7162; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline today suggests that recovery from 0.7054 has completed at 0.7206 already. Intraday bias is cautiously back on the downside for 0.7054 support first. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder term pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6976; (P) 0.7024; (R1) 0.7097; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7187). On the downside, below 0.6948 minor support will bring retest of 0.6828 support first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.6677 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6510; (P) 0.6564; (R1) 0.6597; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6563 support confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.7156. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.6224. On the upside, above 0.6604 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 now suggests that whole rebound from 0.6169 has completed at 0.7156 already. Larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) might be ready to resume through 0.6169 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6866; (P) 0.6884; (R1) 0.6918; More…

AUD/USD rises to sa high as 0.6929 so far as rebound from 0.6670 extends. The break of 0.6894 resistance complete a double bottom pattern (0.6677, 0.6670), which is also an early sign of medium term bullish reversal. Intraday bias is now on the upside for retesting 0.7082 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.6809 support is needed to signal completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly to 0.7988 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.7988 will extend the rebound to retest 0.8135. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key near term support. At this point, there is no strong case for a range breakout yet and 0.7500/8135 could hold for a while.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7309; (P) 0.7339; (R1) 0.7389; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7440 is still in progress. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But overall, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6886; (P) 0.6911; (R1) 0.6931; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery was limited below 4 hour 55 EMA and drops notably today. But it’s staying above 0.6864 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.6988/7069 resistance zone to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.