Thu, Aug 13, 2020 @ 19:45 GMT

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4016; (P) 1.4067; (R1) 1.4142; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3624 continues. The cross should target 1.4289 resistance next. Current development, with a short term bottom formed at 1.3624, is taken as an early sign of larger trend reversal after defending 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4289 will confirm this case and target 1.4721 resistance next. However, break of 1.3874 minor support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3624 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4117; (P) 1.4165; (R1) 1.4201; More

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Above 1.4332 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway trading. Nonetheless, decisive break of 1.4072 low will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD continued to stay in range of 1.4791/5173 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. In that case, EUR/AUD will target 1.5644 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4096; (P) 1.4155; (R1) 1.4216; More

EUR/AUD is staying in the sideway pattern from 1.4025 and intraday bias remains neutral. Price action from 1.4025 are seen as a corrective pattern and thus maintain near term bearishness. On the downside, break of 1.4025 will resume the larger fall from 1.6587 to key support level at 1.3671. We’d expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. On the upside, above 1.4274 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4721 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6268; (P) 1.6306; (R1) 1.6367; More

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5905 resumed by taking out 1.6368 resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside. Further rise should be seen to 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6203 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6074 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6038) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5780; (P) 1.5826; (R1) 1.5903; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.5886 so far. Intraday bias is now on the upside as rise from 1.5271 should target a test on 1.6139/89 resistance zone. However, as the rebound from 1.5271 is not clearly impulsive yet and momentum isn’t too convincing. Break of 1.5695 minor support could be an early sign of near term topping. In such case, focus will be back on 1.5425 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5217 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is not completed yet. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3834; (P) 1.3862; (R1) 1.3894; More

EUR/AUD’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 1.3808 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.3671 key support level next. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 1.3671 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3888 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Firm break of 1.4025 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn focus back to 1.4289 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen but, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5893; (P) 1.5934; (R1) 1.5977; More….

EUR/AUD’s recovery continues today but is limited well below 1.6154 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.5774 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 key support. However, break of 1.6154 will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6765 instead.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6161; (P) 1.6197; (R1) 1.6266; More

EUR/AUD breached 1.6231 resistance but retreated quickly. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6231 will confirm completion of fall from 1.6448 at 1.5894. Further rise should then be seen to 1.6448 and above. On the downside, though, below 1.6093 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.5894 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4948; (P) 1.4992; (R1) 1.5057; More

EUR/AUD’s sharp decline and break of 1.4796 support suggests that corrective rebound from 1.4625 has completed at 1.5073 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.4625 support next. Break there will extend the whole corrective decline from 1.5526 and target 100% projection of 1.5226 to 1.4625 from 1.4472. On the upside, above 1.4894 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4625 support will dampen this bullish view. In that case, we’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s sharp decline last week indicates that the correction from 1.5226 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Decisive break of 1.4625 will target 100% projection of 1.5226 to 1.4625 from 1.4472 next. We’ll look for bottoming signal below 1.4472. On the upside, above 1.4785 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But deeper fall is still expected as long as 1.5073 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. But we will monitor the structure of the decline from 1.5226 to adjust our view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, further downside acceleration will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4933; (P) 1.4976; (R1) 1.5024; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.4934 minor support will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, after hitting 1.5094 key resistance. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4570). Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6046; (P) 1.6078; (R1) 1.6129; More

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook as recovery from 1.5894 is in progress. But such recovery is seen as a corrective and thus, upside should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring fall resumption. Decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5894 will target 1.5683 support and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6231 will dampen this view and target 1.6448 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3921; (P) 1.3965; (R1) 1.4047; More

Breach of 1.4014 temporary top suggests that pull back has completed at 1.3874, ahead of 1.3835 support. Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance next. Current development, with a short term bottom formed at 1.3624, is taking as an early sign of larger trend reversal after defending 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4289 will confirm this case and target 1.4721 resistance next. However, break of 1.3874 minor support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3624 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5695; (P) 1.5797; (R1) 1.5864; More….

EUR/AUD rebounds strongly today but stays below 1.6038 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected with 1.6038 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.5721 will extend the fall from 1.6765 to 1.5346 key support. But break of 1.6038 will indicate completion of the fall and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4849; (P) 1.4887; (R1) 1.4939; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Near term outlook remains bullish with 1.4777 support intact and further rally is expected. As noted before, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Above 1.4964 will target 1.5073 resistance first. Break of 1.5073 will likely resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. However, firm break of 1.4777 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 1.4564 support. Break will extend the correction from 1.5226 through 1.4421.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s medium term decline from 1.6587 extended last week and reached as low as 1.3838. Intraday bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen to 1.3671 key support level. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 1.3671 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4038 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn focus back to 1.4289 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen but, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD dipped to 1.5578 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is still expected in the cross. Break of 1.5578 will extend the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. Nonetheless, on the upside, break of 1.5701 minor resistance will argue that fall from 1.5888 might be completed. Intraday bias is will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5888.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5060; (P) 1.5098; (R1) 1.5161; More….

The strong rally in EUR/AUD and breach of 1.5241 resistance indicates that medium term rise from 1.3624 is resuming. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. On the downside, below 1.5137 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral for consolidations. But outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.4949 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Sustained trading above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5500; (P) 1.5583; (R1) 1.5634; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline accelerates to as low as 1.5487 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Prior break of 1.5621 support is taken as an indication of medium term reversal. Current fall should target 1.5153 support next. On the upside, above 1.5593 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 1.5773 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.5849) is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further fall is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

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