EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4939; (P) 1.5006; (R1) 1.5050; More

With 1.4901 minor support intact, further rise is expected in EUR/AUD to 1.5226 resistance. Break there will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.3624. In such case, EUR/AUD would target 1.5455 fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.4901 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4625 support will dampen this bullish view. In that case, we’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.6182 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 1.5925 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6182 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6827 resistance next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.5925 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5614 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5614 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5635; (P) 1.5695; (R1) 1.5759; More….

EUR/AUD’s rebound stalled at 1.5750, below 1.5773 key support turned resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. ON the downside, break of 1.5601 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.5425. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 1.5271 and target this low again. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5773 will indicate that whole decline from 1.6189 has completed with three waves down to 1.5271 already. And retest of 1.6189 should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.5773 support turned resistance with the current strong rebound. Firm break there will argue that medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is not completed yet. Further break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Though, rejection by 1.5773 will revive the case of bearish trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.4604.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6174; (P) 1.6220; (R1) 1.6302; More….

EUR/AUD recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Consolidation from 1.6353 short term top could extend further with another decline, possibly to 38.2% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.6066. But downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6353 will resume larger up trend to 1.6587 key resistance level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) has just resumed. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5649; (P) 1.5740; (R1) 1.5794; More

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6168 resumed by breaking 1.5655. The development affirms the case that recovery from 1.5354 has completed at 1.6168. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.5250/5354 support zone. For now, further decline will be in favor as long as 1.5898 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5548; (P) 1.5585; (R1) 1.5624; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5788). Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.6434 has completed and bring stronger rally. On the downside, through, below 1.5532 minor support turn turn bias back to the downside for 1.5353. Break there will target a test on 1.5250 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption nand target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5611; (P) 1.5653; (R1) 1.5676; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline resumed after consolidation from 1.5575 entered rather quickly, dropping to as low as 1.5546 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 1.6357 should target 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, though, break of 1.5693 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming. In that case, lengthier consolidation would be seen first before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6357; (P) 1.6397; (R1) 1.6463; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral with focus on 1.5434 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3969; (P) 1.4012; (R1) 1.4072; More

EUR/AUD remains bounded in range of 1.3872/4309 and intraday bias remains neutral. We’re holding on to the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. Another rise is expected as long as 1.3872 minor support holds. Break of 1.4309 will extend the rebound from 1.3624 to 1.4721 key resistance level next. Break should confirm larger trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3872 support will dampen our bullish view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3624 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5902; (P) 1.6003; (R1) 1.6065; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.5898 holds, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.6232 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.6434 high first. However, sustained break of 1.5898 will argue that rise from 1.5250 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish for 1.5614 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5728; (P) 1.5774; (R1) 1.5804; More

Outlook in EUR/AUD remains unchanged as price actions from 1.5250 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.5603 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.5250 low. However, sustained break of 1.5852 will bring further rally back to 1.6033 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5416; (P) 1.5469; (R1) 1.5541; More

EUR/AUD is extending the corrective pattern from 1.5074. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5227) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6551; (P) 1.6630; (R1) 1.6683; More

EUR/AUD’s deeper decline from 1.6742 and break of 1.6578 minor support mixes up the near term outlook. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6450 support first. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed with three waves up to 1.6742, and turn near term outlook bearish. On the upside, though, break of 1.6742 will resume this rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5306; (P) 1.5382; (R1) 1.5448; More….

With 1.5454 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside. Current fall from 1.6189 should target 1.5153 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.5454 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6676; (P) 1.6737; (R1) 1.6833; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6843 will resume the rebound from 1.6319 for retesting 1.7062 high next. On the downside, however, below 1.6631 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6449 support instead.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.5770 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Further decline could be seen initially this week. But still, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.5430 minor resistance will now indicate completion of the correction and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5770. However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate larger reversal and target 1.4949 support next.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate trend reversal and target 1.3624 again.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5508; (P) 1.5594; (R1) 1.5671; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 1.5354 should have completed with three waves up to 1.6223. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.5250/5354 support zone. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5837 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5712; (P) 1.5769; (R1) 1.5863; More

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5591 extends higher today and focus is now on channel resistance (now at 1.5929). Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.6827 has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen to 1.6144 support turned resistance next. Though, rejection by the channel resistance will retain near term bearishness, for another fall through 1.5591 in a later stage.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed last week and took out 1.5094 resistance. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Current rise from 1.3624 should target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. On the downside, break of 1.4927 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4669 support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD edged lower last week but quickly recovered. Yet, upside is limited by 1.5614 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.5329 to complete the correction from 1.5976. Firm break of 1.5614 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5976. However, sustained trading below 1.5329 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4928.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

In the longer term picture, focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5595). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by 55 month EMA will suggest that down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress for another low below 1.4281.