EURAUD Outlook

EUR/AUD fell further to 1.6759 last week but recovered after hitting 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7149 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6759 and sustained trading below 1.6851 will extend larger fall to 138.2% projection at 1.6351 next. However, break of 1.7145 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is still in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 will argue that it's already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.5913. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7362) holds even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6605) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6896; (P) 1.6950; (R1) 1.7057; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current recovery. But risk stays on the downside with 1.7145 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained trading below 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.6351 next. However, break of 1.7145 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is still in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 will argue that it's already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.5913. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7396) holds even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6804; (P) 1.6863; (R1) 1.6928; More...

Further decline is expected in EUR/AUD as long as 1.7145 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.6351 next. However, break of 1.7145 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is still in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 will argue that it's already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.5913. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7396) holds even in case of strong rebound.