EUR/AUD stayed in tight range last week as sideway trading continued. Initial bias stays neutral first. Another fall is mildly in favor as long as 1.4994 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.4732 will confirm that fall from 1.5173 is the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.5226. In that case, further fall should be seen to 1.4421 again. But we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4994 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5173/5226 resistance zone instead.
In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.