EURUSD Outlook

EUR/USD's extended decline suggests that corrective rebound from 1.1408 has completed at 1.1848. But as a temporary low was formed at 1.1575, initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.1575 will bring deeper fall back to retest 1.1408 low. However, firm break of 1.1660 resistance will dampen this bearish view, and bring stronger rise back to 1.1795 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1542). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1575 but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As noted before, rebound from 1.1408 could have completed as a corrective three-wave move. Firm break of 1.1575 will target a retest on 1.1408 low. However, decisive break of 1.1660 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1542). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Intraday bias in EUR?USD stays neutral at this point. As noted before, rebound from 1.1408 could have completed as a corrective three-wave move. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.1408 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1659) holds.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1542). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.