EURUSD Outlook

EUR/USD's extended rebound suggests that fall from 1.2081 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613). Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1454 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 1.1323 should continue to 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613). . Decisive break there will add to the case that whole correction from 1.2081 has completed with three waves down to 1.1323. In this case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1433 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.

EUR/USD's break of 1.1499 support turned resistance argue that fall from 1.2081 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613). Decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1433 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.