GBPJPY Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen above 209.55 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 215.33) holds. Below 209.55 will extend the fall from 219.56 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.85) holds, the long term up trend is still expected to continue. But some more consolidations should be seen below 219.56 medium term top first. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support and below.

GBP/JPY's decline continues today, and the strong break of 212.367 support confirms that it's already correcting whole up trend from 184.35 to 219.56. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10. On the upside, above 212.33 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.85) holds, the long term up trend is still expected to continue. But some more consolidations should be seen below 219.56 medium term top first. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support and below.

GBP/JPY's steep decline last week argue that it might be correcting whole up trend from 184.35 to 219.56. Firm break of 212.36 support would confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 216.30 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.76) holds, the long term up trend is still expected to continue. But some more consolidations should be seen below 219.56 medium term top first.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 188.96) holds.