Sat, Jul 11, 2020 @ 11:16 GMT

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 142.76 accelerated higher last week and the development suggests that pull back from 149.70 has completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 149.70 first. Break will resume the rise from 139.88 and target 153.84/156.59 resistance zone. On the downside, below 145.43 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 142.76 again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

In the longer term picture, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead (116.83 as 2011 low).

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.90; (P) 146.28; (R1) 146.92; More….

GBP/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 147.27 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Rise from 122.36 should be resuming. Further rally should be seen through 148.20 to 150.42 fibonacci level.. Further break there will target 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64. On the downside, below 145.64 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.39; (P) 133.25; (R1) 133.93; More…

Outlook in GBP/JPY is unchanged. Corrective rebound form 123.94 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 129.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 123.94 low. However, sustained break of 136.92 will raise the chance of trend reversal and turn focus to 144.95 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY stayed in established range of 140.43/77 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a corrective pattern with first leg completed at 136.44. Break of 140.43 will argue that the second leg is finished too. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 136.44 and below. Meanwhile, break of 144.77 will target a test on 148.42 high next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we’d expect another fall through 116.83 low.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

GBP/JPY Monthly Chart

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 143.18 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidation. In case of further rebound, upside should be limited by 147.04 support turned resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, below 144.52 minor support will bring retest of 143.18 first. Break will resume the decline from 153.84.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.72 (P) 146.04; (R1) 146.53; More…

GBP/JPY is still staying below 146.63 minor resistance despite rally attempt. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 146.63 will turn bias to the upside for 148.10 resistance first. Decisive break there will be a strong signal of near term reversal. Further rally would be seen to 149.99 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 148.13 will extend the fall from 156.59 for 139.25/47 cluster support level.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.02; (P) 138.47; (R1) 139.34; More…

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 131.51 short term bottom is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. We’d expect strong resistance from 139.88 key resistance to limit upside. On the downside, break of 136.61 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 131.51 low. Overall, larger down trend from 155.59 is expected to resume later after the consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. Fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high). Below 131.51 will target 122.36 low first. Break of 122.36 will target 116.83 low first (2011 low). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 139.88 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.88 will mix up the outlook and we’ll reassess on the final structure of the rebound from 131.51.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.89; (P) 154.61; (R1) 155.68; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. For the moment, 156.07 is seen as a short term top. Hence, risk remains mildly on the downside for another another fall. Also, break of 151.95 will now be an early sign of reversal and will bring deeper decline back to 149.96 key support level. Nonetheless, above 156.07 will resume larger up trend to 167.78 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And there would be prospect of retesting 122.36 in that case.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.11; (P) 148.20; (R1) 148.94; More…

GBP/JPY is staying above 147.04 so far despite the sharp fall from 149.29. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 147.04 could extend further. But in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 147.04 will target 144.97 first. Break there will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.06; (P) 143.62; (R1) 144.43; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook as it’s staying in consolidation pattern from 147.95.On the downside, break of 140.92 will target 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77. On the upside, above 144.60 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 147.95 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.07; (P) 140.41; (R1) 140.97; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 141.50 is extending. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 135.74 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 141.50 will resume the rise from 126.54 to for 148.87 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 130.42 support holds.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY stayed in consolidation above 147.95 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Also, outlook remains bearish with 151.19 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Below 147.95 will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in weekly MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 154.60) and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.60). Firm break there will suggest that rise from 122.36 is developing into a long term move that targets 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, rejection from the 55 month EMA will turn focus back to 122.36 low.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

GBP/JPY Monthly Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.15; (P) 138.16; (R1) 139.17; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside with 139.82 minor resistance intact. Current decline from 147.95 should target 61.8% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 from 134.71 next. On the upside, above 139.82 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside for now, as long as 144.95 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, Rejection by 148.87 resistance argues that rise from 126.54 is probably just third third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Medium term outlook is turned neutral first. Break of 126.54 support would resume larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) through 122.75 low.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.55; (P) 145.30; (R1) 145.83; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 148.87 is extending. On the downside, sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 156.58 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus is now staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.14; (P) 146.80; (R1) 147.50; More…

GBP/JPY rebounds strongly today but stays below 148.10 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 148.10 will resume the rebound from 143.18 and target 149.99, and then 153.84 resistance. However, break of 145.82 minor support will argue that the rebound from 143.18 is completed and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.35; (P) 132.96; (R1) 133.39; More…

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Corrective rebound from 123.94 might not be over. But in case of another rise, we’d strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92 to limit upside. But sustained break of 135.74 will pave the way to 144.95 resistance next. On the downside, break of 131.90 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 123.94 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.03; (P) 147.47; (R1) 148.16; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally from 139.88 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise should target 149.50 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that decline from 156.59 has completed at 139.88. On the downside, below 146.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 142.58 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, the decline from 156.69 is seen as corrective move. That is, rise from 122.36 (2016 low), is still expected to extend higher through 156.69. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 153.39 but formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week. Prior break of 152.82 resistance suggests up trend resumption. Further rise is expected as long as 149.74 support holds. Break of 153.39 will target 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32. However, break of 149.74 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 146.96 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rise from 122.36 is resuming. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

In the longer term picture, current rebound argues that the down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.89). Firm break there will suggest that rise form 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, firm break of 139.29 will suggests that the long term down trend is still in progress and could break 116.83 low ahead.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

GBP/JPY Monthly Chart

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 139.88. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 144.85). On the downside, however, below 141.32 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound. And larger down trend will likely resume for 139.29/47 key support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. But the downside acceleration makes this view shaky. Focus will be on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 152.88) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.21; (P) 151.39; (R1) 151.60; More…

A temporary top is in place at 152.00 and intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 150.36 holds. Above 152.00 will target 153.39 first. Break will resume medium term rally. On the downside, below 150.36 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and extend the correction from 153.39. But we’d look for strong support from 146.96 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up a bit with last week’s sharp decline. But still, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And the corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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