Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.23; (P) 152.58; (R1) 153.21; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally continues today and hits as high as 153.73 so far. As noted before, corrective pattern from 156.05 should have completed after defending 149.03 key support. Intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 156.05 high. On the downside, break of 152.13 resistance turned support is needed to indicate completion of the rise from 149.20. Otherwise, we’d expect further rally ahead, even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59 (2018 high). Fall from 156.05 would at least be correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

GBP/JPY recovered last week but failed to sustain 4 hour 55 EMA and weakened again. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Break of 141.43 will extend the decline from 148.09. In such case, intraday bias is turned to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 140.35. At this point, we’d still expect rebound from 122.36 to resume later. Hence, we’d look for strong support below 140.35 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 143.93 will turn bias back to the upside for 148.09 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 122.36 medium term bottom is still expected to extend to of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. And decisive break there could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, as the cross is starting to lose upside momentum, rejection below 150.42 and break of 135.58 support will indicate reversal and bring deeper fall back to retest 122.36 instead.

In the longer term picture, based on the impulsive structure of the decline from 195.86 to 122.36, such fall should not be completed yet. But we will now pay close attention to the structure of the rise from 122.36 to determine whether it’s a corrective move, or an impulsive move. That would decide whether a break of 116.83 low would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.87; (P) 143.14; (R1) 143.51; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 147.95 is extending. On the downside, break of 140.92 will target 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77. On the upside, above 144.60 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 147.95 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.23; (P) 139.64; (R1) 140.14; More…

Intraday bias in GPB/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 136.78 will extend the pattern from 142.71 with a third leg. Deeper fall would be seen to 134.40 support next. On the upside, break of 140.70 will invalidate this view and extend the rebound from 133.03.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

GBP/JPY edged higher to 154.80 last week but continued to lost momentum from there. Though, there was no deep correction yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 154.80 will resume larger up trend to 156.59 key resistance first. Break will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% projection of 133.03 to 153.39 from 149.03 at 161.61. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 149.03 resistance holds, in case of pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.45; (P) 144.87; (R1) 145.12; More…

Intraday bias remains neutral and near term outlook stays bearish in GBP/JPY with 145.99 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 144.02 will resume the fall from 149.48 and target 139.39/47 key support zone. On the upside, above 145.99 support turned resistance could bring stronger rebound. But near tem outlook will be neutral at best as long as 149.70 key resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.73; (P) 151.32; (R1) 151.84; More

GBP/JPY’s choppy recovery from 146.92 resumed by taking out 151.38. Further rise could be seen to 152.82. But firm break there is needed to confirm medium term rally resumption. Otherwise, consolidative trading from 152.82 could still extend with another falling leg. Break of 148.88 will turn bias to the downside through 146.92 to 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

GBP/JPY’s recovery last week was limited below 142.75 minor resistance and there is no confirmation of completion of fall from 148.09 yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 138.65 will resume the decline from 148.09. In that case, we’d look for bottoming signal around 135.58, which is close to 135.39 fibonacci level, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 142.75 should confirm completion of the fall from 148.09 and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 148.09 is deeper than expected, we’re not bearish in the cross yet. Price action from 148.42 is possibly developing into a sideway pattern with fall from 148.09 as the third leg. Deeper decline could be seen but we’re looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Rise from 122.36 is still mildly in favor to resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 135.58/39 will confirm reversal and target a retest on 122.36 low.

In the longer term picture, based on the impulsive structure of the decline from 195.86 to 122.36, such fall should not be completed yet. But we will now pay close attention to the structure of the rise from 122.36 to determine whether it’s a corrective move, or an impulsive move. That would decide whether a break of 116.83 low would be seen.

GBP/JPY stayed in range below 183.99 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 179.45 will resume the correction from 183.90 to 55 D EMA (now at 177.57). On the upside, firm break of 183.99 high will resume larger up trend to 187.36 projection level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 187.36, and then 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress to retest 195.86 (2015 high). Based on current momentum, break of 195.86 is in favor. But strong resistance could still be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 (2011 low) at 199.80 to limit upside on first attempt.

GBP/JPY’s fall from 156.59 extended to 147.95 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 151.19 resistance to bring another fall. Below 147.95 will target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.60). Firm break there will suggest that rise from 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, rejection from the 55 month EMA will turn focus back to 122.36 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.02; (P) 138.47; (R1) 139.34; More…

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 131.51 short term bottom is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. We’d expect strong resistance from 139.88 key resistance to limit upside. On the downside, break of 136.61 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 131.51 low. Overall, larger down trend from 155.59 is expected to resume later after the consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. Fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high). Below 131.51 will target 122.36 low first. Break of 122.36 will target 116.83 low first (2011 low). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 139.88 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.88 will mix up the outlook and we’ll reassess on the final structure of the rebound from 131.51.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.24; (P) 143.33; (R1) 143.93; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 142.80 minor support suggests that corrective recovery form 140.83 has completed at 144.60 already. Correction from 147.95 is now in the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 140.83 first, and then 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 144.60 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

GBP/JPY dropped to 130.64 last week but couldn’t sustain below 131.90 resistance and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first and outlook is a bit mixed. Though, another fall is in favor as long as 133.17 minor resistance holds. Below 130.64 will target a test on 123.94 low. Nevertheless, break of 130.64 will turn bias to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) could be resuming. Break of 116.83 will target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.96; (P) 160.82; (R1) 161.90; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 159.41 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 148.93 again. However, firm break of 169.10 will confirm resumption of larger up trend. Also, while further rise could be seen, strong resistance might be seen from 169.10 high to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, strong support from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 169.10 at 151.84 suggests that price actions from 169.10 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, rise from 123.94 (2020 low) should resume at a later stage. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.11; (P) 148.48; (R1) 149.12; More

GBP/JPY’s recovery was limited at 149.04 and drops sharply after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. But it’s staying above 146.92 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another decline is expected with 149.73 intact. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.67; (P) 186.17; (R1) 187.09; More…

GBP/JPY rebounded after brief dip to 185.21 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 185.21 will extend the correction from 188.90 to 55 D EMA (now at 184.99) and below. On the upside, break of 187.60 minor resistance will argue that the pull back has completed, and bring retest of 188.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) in in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.62; (P) 154.04; (R1) 154.29; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 154.80 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 154.80 will resume larger up trend to 156.59 key resistance first. Break will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% projection of 133.03 to 153.39 from 149.03 at 161.61. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 149.03 resistance holds, in case of pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.19; (P) 143.89; (R1) 145.12; More…

Break of 144.69 minor resistance argues that pull back from 148.42 is finished at 142.16. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned back to the upside for 148.42. Break there will extend the whole rise from 122.36. Still, such rally is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 150.43 long term fibonacci level to limit upside. Break of 142.16 should confirm short term topping and bring decline to 55 day EMA (now at 140.03) and below.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 195.86 top (2015 high) should have made a medium term bottom at 122.36 after hitting 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. Rise from there is now expected to develop into a medium term corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.24; (P) 168.67; (R1) 170.76; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside as up trend is resuming. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 165.69 from 159.71 at 170.06 will target 100% projection at 176.47. On the downside, below 165.00 minor support will turn Intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will pave the way to retest 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.70; (P) 192.27; (R1) 192.86; More..

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from 178.32, and target 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 193.51 at 187.70.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), and is in progress for 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high). Break of 187.94 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.