GBPJPY Outlook

GBP/JPY's extended decline last week indicates that rise from 1.3139 has completed with three waves up to 1.3675. But with a temporary low formed at 1.3334, initial bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Upside should be limited below 1.3473 support turned resistance to bring another below. Below 1.3334 will target 1.3272 support. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 1.3139 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

GBP/JPY's strong rebound last week confirms short term bottoming at 207.06. However, it stalled at 211.25 and retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Still, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.06 holds. Above 211.25 will target 38.2% retracement of 219.56 to 207.06 at 211.83. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 214.78.

In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10 before the correction completes. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 217.45 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 190.50) holds.

The strong break of 209.47 suggests that corrective fall from 219.56 has completed with three waves to 207.06. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 219.56 to 207.06 at 211.83. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 214.78. On the downside, below 209.47 will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10 before the correction completes. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 217.45 resistance holds, in case of rebound.