GBPJPY Outlook

GBP/JPY rebounded after initial fall to 209.55 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some consolidations. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 213.94) holds. Break of 211.31 minor support will bring retest of 209.55 low. Firm break there will resume the fall from 219.56 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10.

In the bigger picture, focus is on 55 W EMA (now at 208.91). Strong rebound from there will keep the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) intact. Another rally is expected through 219.56 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 188.96) holds.

EUR/JPY rebounded after initial fall to 179.34 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more consolidations would be seen. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 183.17) holds. On the downside, below 181.15 will bring retest of 179.34 low first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 187.93 to 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 55 W EMA (now at 180.17). Strong rebound from there will indicate that the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. That would set up another rally through 187.93 to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA holds.

GBP/JPY's rebound from 209.55 extended higher. But near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 214.06) holds. Below 211.67 minor support will bring retest of 209.55 low first. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 4H EMA will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement of 219.56 to 209.55 at 215.73.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.85) holds, the long term up trend is still expected to continue. But some more consolidations should be seen below 219.56 medium term top first. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support and below.