USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD fell to as low as 1.3629 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.3729 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3590) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3669; (P) 1.3692; (R1) 1.3723; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.3787 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. However, firm break of 1.3787 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.3965 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3652; (P) 1.3663; (R1) 1.3684; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current recovery. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.3787 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. However, firm break of 1.3787 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.3965 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.