USDJPY Outlook

USD/JPY's steep decline today suggests that a medium term top is probably formed at 163.97 already. Immediate focus is now on rising channel floor (now at 158.74). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 163.97 is already correcting the whole rise from 139.87, and target 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76. Strong rebound from the channel support will keep the rally from 139.87 intact. But still, even in this case, more consolidations would be seen below 163.97 for a while.

In the bigger picture, the break of 159.44 resistance turned support, together with bearish divergence condition in D MACD, suggests that a medium term top could be formed at 163.97 already. More consolidations would be seen in the near term. But still, outlook will remain bullish as long as 152.25 support holds. The long term up trend is still expected to continue at a later stage, only delayed.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidations should be brief as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 163.29) holds. Above 153.97 will resume larger up trend to 138.2% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 166.07. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will argue that it's already correcting the rise from 155.01, and bring deeper fall to 160.46 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 163.97 at 160.54).

In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 171.82. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 159.44 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Consolidations should be brief as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 163.20) holds. Above 153.97 will resume larger up trend to 138.2% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 166.07. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will argue that it's already correcting the rise from 155.01, and bring deeper fall to 160.46 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 163.97 at 160.54).

In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 171.82. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 159.44 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.