USDJPY Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. While another fall cannot be ruled out, strong support is still expected from (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) bring rebound. Still, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 160.74) is needed to indicate that fall from 163.97 has completed. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 154.76/155.01 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 149.07.

In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.

USD/JPY's fall from 163.97 extends lower today. While further decline could be seen, strong support is still expected from (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 157.95 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, sustained break of 154.76/155.01 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 149.07.

In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.

USD/JPY's steep decline last week confirms medium term topping at 163.97, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 139.87. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76). Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Nevertheless, risk will now remain on the downside as long as 160.87 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.