Notes/Observations
- Focus on US jobs report
- SNB FX Reserves dip due to the stronger CHF currency (Franc)
- China FX Reserves fall for 1st time in 3 months to 3.110T
Asia:
- Japan northern island of Hokkaido continues work to restore power after the recent earthquake -Japan July household spending rises for the first time since Jan
Europe:
- UK Brexit Min Raab said to have threatened Barnier that the EU would be forced to order the Irish government to reinstate the border in Northern Ireland in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit (Raab’s warning over Irish border left EU’s Barnier furious)
Americas:
- Canada Foreign Min Freeland: both sides are showing goodwill in NAFTA talks; we’ve had another productive meeting
- Bank of Canada (BOC) Wilkins: higher rates would be necessary to achieve inflation target. Not going to preempt Oct rate discussions
- Fed’s Evans (non-voter, dove): Fed should raise interest rates to neutral and likely a little beyond. Higher inflation than expected would require more tightening
- Fed’s Rosengren (moderate, non-voter): there should be more attention to forming policy buffers to mitigate future shocks
- Public comment period related to the US proposed tariffs on $200B in China goods has expired
- President Trump reportedly hinted in press interview that trade fight with Japan may be next on agenda
Economic Data:
- (NL) Netherlands July Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.9 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 3.3% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 8.4% v 6.7% prior
- (CH) Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.4%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 2.6% v 2.6%e
- (DE) Germany July Current Account Balance: €15.3B v €20.0Be; Trade Balance: €16.5B v €19.5Be; Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.3%e; Imports M/M: 2.8% v 0.1%e
- (DE) Germany July Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.6%e
- (DE) Germany Q2 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.4% prior
- (FI) Finland July Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.5B v €0B prior
- (DK) Denmark July Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v 0.5% prior – (NO) Norway July Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v +4.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v _2.9% prior
- (NO) Norway July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 0.6% prior
- (RO) Romania Q2 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.1%e
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Gross Reserves: $49.8B v $50.6Be; Net Reserves: $42.4B v $42.4Be
- (AU) Australia Aug Foreign Reserves: A$71.0B v A$69.1B prior
- (FR) France July Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.0%e
- (FR) France July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.5%e
- (FR) France July Trade Balance: -€3.5B v -€5.7Be
- (FR) France July Current Account Balance: +€0.5B v -€2.3B prior
- (FR) France July YTD Budget Balance: -€82.8B v -€58.9B prior
- (ES) Spain July Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: +2.8% v -2.1% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: 0.5% v 1.3%e; Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v +0.4%e
- (ES) Spain Q2 INE House Price Index Q/Q: 2.6% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.8% v 6.2% prior
- (CH) Swiss Aug Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 730.9B v 749.9B prior – (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.4B v €1.0B prior
- (AT) Austria Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.9% prior
- (CN) China Aug Foreign Reserves: $3.110T v $$3.115Te
- (UK) Aug Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; 3M/Y: 3.7% v 3.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Aug Budget Balance (SEK): 24.9B v 15.7B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Aug Trade Balance: $4.5B v $3.8Be; Exports Y/Y: 1.9% v 5.1%e; Imports Y/Y: 7.9% v 15.6%e
- (IT) Italy July Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v +1.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug International Reserves: $144.7B v $144.9B prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Aug 31st: 10.29T v 10.36T prior
- (UK) Aug BoE/TNS Inflation Quarterly Survey Next 12-month: 3.0% v 2.9% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: 1.2% v 1.0%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Household Consumption Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (IS) Iceland Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.2% v 6.6% prior
- (SG) Singapore Aug Foreign Reserves: $289.5B v $289.2B prior
- (HU) Hungary Aug YTD Budget Balance (HUF): -1.646T v -1.491T prior
Fixed Income Issuance:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2023, 2028, 2035 and 2045 bonds
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Indices [Stoxx600 -0.1% at 373.2, FTSE -0.2% 7304, DAX -0.1% at 11947, CAC-40 +0.1% at 5249, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 9194, FTSE MIB +0.0% at 20530, SMI +0.2% at 8836, S&P 500 Futures -0.1%]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mixed in quiet trade consolidating after recent declines ahead of US Non Farm Payrolls later today. On a light day for coprorate headlines, IAG trades lower after a data breach in which 380K customers were affected. Enquest trades lower on earnings, while Plus500 is lower after Playtech sold its stake in the company. Green King is a notable gainer after strong comparable sales figures; Iliad trades higher on rumours of the company going private. Looking ahead notable earners include Genesco and Shiloh Industries.
Movers
- Consumer Discretionary IAG [IAG.UK] -2.1% (Data breach), GreenKing [GNK.UK] +8.1% (Earnings)
- Materials Enquest [ENQ.UK] -10% (Earnings, rights issue)
- Financials Ashmore [ASHM.UK] +2.4% (Earnings), Plus500 [PLUS.UK] -4.5% (Playtech sells stake)
- Telecom Illiad [ILD.FR] +5.5% (Speculation company could be taken private)
- Healthcare BTG [BTG.UK] -1.6% (Acquisition), Zealand Pharma [ZEAL.DK] +11% (Sell royalty streams and milestones)
Speakers
- Eurogroup chief Centeno: Italy committed to following EU principles
- EU’s Moscovici: In Italy’s interest to keep its debt under control
- Italy Fin Min Tria said to aim for budget deficit to GDP ratio below 1.6% vs. coalition target 2.5-3.0% area. Budget package would be around €30B and that the Govt was united on not breaching EU covenants
- Italy Dep PM De Maio: Bond spreads and rating agencies should not set Italy economic policy
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) offers deposit facility to central counterparties to help manage liquidity buffers
- Germany could tighten foreign takeover rules even further.
- Indonesia Central Bank Gov Warjiyo: Gov efforts to reduce the deficit will help the IDR currency (Rupiah). Reiterated to keep stabilizing the economy and currency
Currencies
- USD was slightly softer ahead of the US jobs report. Dealers noted that trade could quickly move back to the front burner if the US decide to implement the $200B in additional tariffs on China now that the public comment period related to the US proposed tariffs had expired
- EUR/USD higher by 0.2% to trade just under 1.1650 ahead of the US jobs report. Dealers noted that Italian government bond yields continued to decline as Italian budget anxiety continues to recede.
Fixed Income
- Bund Futures trades at 160.26 down 10 ticks with the focus on US jobs data. Resistance moves to 161.82 then 163. A downside break of 159.85 sees 158.69 initially.
- Gilt futures trades at 122.29 down 22 ticks following the move in Treasuries. Continued support at 122.50, with a continued move higher targeting 123.93 then 124.00.
- Friday ‘s liquidity report showed Thursday’s excess liquidity fell from €1.920T to €1.916T. Use of the marginal lending facility fell from €41M to €40M.
- Corporate issuance saw 3 issuers raise $22B in the primary market. For the week ended Sept 5th Lipper fund flows reported IG funds show outflows of $7.2B.
Looking Ahead
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell ZAR600M in I/ L 2025, 2033 and 2050 bonds
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell €5.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£2.0B, £2.0B and £1.5B respectively)
- 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell Oct 2022 RIKB Bonds
- 06:30 (ES) ECB’s De Guindos (Spain) with SSM chief Nouy at Eurofi Financial forum in Vienna
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.7% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Aug Trade Balance: $0.1Be v 0.4B prior; Total Exports: No est v 6.2B prior; Total Imports: No est v 5.8B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.0B prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Aug International Reserves: No est v $37.6B prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Aug 31st: No est v $401.3Bprior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Official Reserves: No est v $112.2B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed)
- 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +195Ke v +157K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +194Ke v +170K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +24Ke v +37K prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Unemployment Rate: 3.8%e v 3.9% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 7.5% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 62.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.7% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Net Change in Employment: +5.0Ke v +54.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.9%e v 5.8% prior; Full Time Employment Change: +35.0Ke v -28K prior; Part Time Employment Change: -30Ke v +82K prior; Participation Rate: 65.5%e v 65.4% prior; Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Fed’s Rosengren (moderate, non-voter)
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.9%e v 4.8% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
- 09:00 (RU) Russia Aug Official Reserve Assets: $455.0Be v $ 458.0B prior
- 09:00 (US) Fed’s Mester (hawk, voter)
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 61.8 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 56.7 prior
- 10:30 (TR) Turkey Aug Cash Budget Balance (TUR): No est v 0.8B prior
- 11:00 (EU) Potential Sovereign ratings after European close (Moody’s on Italy)
- 12:45 (US) Fed’s Kaplan (dove, non-voter) speaks at Energy Conference in Dallas
- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count:
weekend
- Sept 9th (SE) Swedish General Election
