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Weekly Focus: Global Slowdown

Nov 02 18, 14:56 GMT

Market Movers ahead

The US mid-term elections will attract a lot of attention but are unlikely to lead to any changes in economic policy.
The FOMC meeting is a small one and we do not expect any policy or signal changes.
In Europe, keep an eye on politics in Italy and Germany.
The UK is likely to strong GDP figures for Q3, but more interestingly, we will also get indicators for Q4, which might well be weaker.
Trade and FX reserve data out of China will shed light on the effects of the trade war and the scale of the intervention to support the CNY in October.
Norwegian price data is likely to indicate a slowdown in core inflation.

Global macro and market themes

Global growth data disappointed, with weak GDP numbers for the euro area, lower new orders in the US and a nosediving PMI in China.
Italy avoided a downgrade from rating agencies, but still seems uncompromising on the budget. It is now also facing stagnation as growth in Q3 was zero.
US labour costs showed the highest growth in 10 years.
In contrast, Swedish wage growth remained muted.

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