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New Zealand Dollar And Bond Yields Decline As RBNZ Signals Possibility For Additional Rate Cut

General Trend:

  • Toyota Motor moves between gains and losses after FY results , guidance and buyback announcement
  • Chinese equity markets pare losses as trade-sensitive IT index gains, financials decline
  • RBNZ cited inflation and employment for rate cut
  • Analysts debate policy outlook for RBNZ following statement
  • AUD/NZD rises as Australia and New Zealand now both have official cash rates equal to 1.50%
  • USD/JPY tests ÂĄ110.00 area amid equity declines, focus on trade
  • China Vice Premier Liu He is expected to visit the US May 9-10th (Thursday-Friday)
  • Singapore Central Bank plans to release data on currency interventions, shift reserves to wealth fund
  • Some press focus on impact of US/China trade talks on Japan (Nikkei)
  • Honda expected to report earnings after Nikkei close

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

  • ASX 200 opened -0.2%
  • (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) CUTS OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) BY 25BPS TO 1.50%; AS EXPECTED, adjusts rate path for another cut (first rate cut since 2016)
  • (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Gov Orr: Think we are in a good position to observe data as situation unfolds- post rate decision press conference
  • SUN.AU Reports Q3 lending Portfolio A$58.9B, +1% y/y, -0.5% q/q
  • CSR.AU Reports FY19 (A$) adj Net 181.7M v 210.6M y/y; EBIT 265.0M v 320.3M y/y; Rev 2.32B v 2.24B y/y
  • (AU) Australia sells A$900M v A$900M indicated in 2.75% Nov 2029 bonds, avg yield 1.7652% v 1.8864% prior, bid to cover 3.52x v 2.91x prior
  • (NZ) Kiwibank cuts rates on its floating rate home loans by 15bps, follows 25bps rate cut by RBNZ

Japan

  • Nikkei 225 opened -1.4%
  • Toyota Motors, 7203.JP Reports FY18/19 Net ÂĄ1.88T v ÂĄ2.49T y/y; Op ÂĄ2.47T v ÂĄ2.40T y/y; Rev ÂĄ30.2T v ÂĄ29.4T y/y; to buyback ÂĄ300B in shares (1.73% of shares outstanding)
  • (JP) US could pressure Japan into a quick trade deal if talks fall apart with China – Nikkei
  • 7203.JP Targeting to produce 400K electric vehicles per year in China, after expanding factory JV with Guangzhou Auto with $1.64B investment – Nikkei
  • (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) minutes from March policy meeting (two meetings ago): Most: Will take time to hit 2% price target, appropriate to persist with monetary easing
  • (JP) Japan Apr PMI Services: 51.8 v 52.0 prior (3-month low); PMI Composite: 50.8 v 50.4 prior
  • (JP) Japan MoF sells ÂĄ2.1T v ÂĄ2.1T indicated in 0.10% (prior 0.10%) 10-yr JGBs, avg yield -0.060% v -0.060% prior, bid to cover 4.44x v 5.07x prior

Korea

  • Kospi opened -1.2%
  • (KR) South Korea Mar Current Account Balance: $4.8B v $3.6B prior; Balance of Goods (BOP): $8.5B v $5.5B prior
  • (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hong: Reiterates downside risks to economy are increasing; Sluggish exports and uncertainties over US/China trade talks are some factors driving weakness in Korean Won ; need to pass extra budget swiftly
  • (KR) South Korea sells KRW1.8T v KRW1.8T indicated in 30-yr bonds; avg yield 1.90% v 1.91% prior

China/Hong Kong

  • Hang Seng opened -1.3%; Shanghai Composite opened -1.8%
  • (CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang: Raising tariff will not resolve issues; reiterates that hope to meet the US half-way on trade issues
  • (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): Vice Premier Liu He to visit US this week for trade talks (scheduled for Thur-Fri, May 9-10th)
  • (CN) CHINA APR TRADE BALANCE (CNY): 93.6B V 216.8BE; Exports Y/Y: 3.1% v 8.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 10.3% v 3.0%e; YTD yuan denominated imports from the US -26.8%
  • (CN) CHINA APR TRADE BALANCE: $13.8B V $34.6BE; Exports Y/Y: -2.7% v +3.0%e; Imports Y/Y: +4.0% v -2.1%e
  • (CN) CHINA APR FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.0950T V $3.100TE (1st decline in 7 months)
  • (CN) China corporate defaults in the first 4 months of 2019 total CNY39.2B, +3.4x y/y – financial press
  • (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.7596 v 6.7614 prior
  • (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY10B in 7-day Reverse Repos v CNY20B prior; Net injects CNY10B v CNY20B prior
  • 388.HK Reports Q1 (HK$) Net 2.661B v 2.56B y/y ; Rev 4.29B v 4.15B y/y

Other Asia

  • (SG) Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS): Official foreign reserves (OFR) have grown steadily over the years, to assesses size of OFR to support monetary policy, should maintain OFR amounting to at least 65% of GDP

North America

  • (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +2.8M v +6.8M prior
  • PBR Reports Q1 (BRL) Net 4.0B v 6.9B y/y, Rev 80.0B v 84.2Be

Europe

  • (UK) UK Apr Barclaycard Consumer Spending Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.1% prior
  • (UK) Apr BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: 3.7% v +2.5%e (largest rise since April 2017)
  • (UK) Official: European Parliament elections will go forward in UK

Levels as of 1:20 ET

  • Nikkei 225, -1.7%, ASX 200 -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.8%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%; Kospi -0.2%
  • Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq100 flat, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 flat
  • EUR 1.1207-1.1188 ; JPY 110.31-109.96 ; AUD 0.7027-0.6999 ;NZD 0.6613-0.6525
  • Gold +0.1% at $1,287/oz; Crude Oil +0.8% at $61.89/brl; Copper +0.5% at $2.805 /lb
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