Wed, Feb 01, 2023 @ 09:16 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisHung Parliament Shock Markets And Hit GBP

Hung Parliament Shock Markets And Hit GBP

Updated seats breakdown of UK general election so far is: Conservatives 318, Labour 261, SNP 35, Liberal Democrats 12 other parties 23. The approval ratings for the Tories and Labour are around 42.4% and 40.1% respectively. The turnout ratio was 68.7%, up 2.6% from 2015 but down 3.5% on the Brexit referendum.

Although the calculation process is still ongoing the Conservative Party is expected to win 319 seats in the end.

The Tories have lost their majority in the House of Commons – this was an unexpected and disappointing outcome – with 318 seats currently. Labour have gained 32 more seats with 261 seats as of this report. Surprisingly the SNP lost 19 seats to the Tories and not Labour – this makes a second Scottish referendum highly unlikely. Not unsurprising was that UKIP lost all their seats.

Theresa May had hoped to increase her Governments majority by calling this snap election to ensure a stronger position in the Brexit negotiation process. Surprisingly the result means that, although the Conservative party is still the biggest party, a loss of seats has resulted in them losing their majority.

Theresa May’s big gamble has, ironically, failed. Reasons for the failure will abound but many are referencing a poor campaign. Theresa May received criticism for not taking part in a televised debate and a manifesto pledge to cut social benefits whereas Jeremy Corbyn rallied the younger vote (18 to 34 year olds) with a Social Welfare biased manifesto.

Theresa May has stated that she will not resign, however, she is facing increased pressure to do so because of the disappointing result. If Theresa May does resign there is growing speculation that Boris Johnson, or Amber Rudd, may become the next Prime Minister. Regardless of who is Prime Minister the first task of the Tories will be to form a coalition, most likely with the Democratic Unionist Party who hold 10 seats.

Potential hurdles and disagreements caused by the lack of a majority in the Parliament are foreseeable and inevitable. It will likely result in the Brexit negotiation process being even more difficult.

Following the Exit Polls that were released at 22:00 BST last night GBP/USD marked the biggest intra-day fall of 250 pips (2.44%) since October 7th, dropping from above 1.29 and hitting a low of 1.2634. On Friday, in the early European session, Cable saw a moderate rebound and currently holding above 1.2700, where there is stronger support.

EUR/GBP marked the biggest intra-day gain of 2.4% since October 7th, hitting a high of 0.8858, last seen on November 9th. The price saw a moderate correction and currently trading around the psychological level at 0.8800.

GBP/JPY plunged 2%, hitting a low of 139.50, last seen on April 21. The downtrend was held above the support line at 139.50.

FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.

Featured Analysis

Learn Forex Trading