The New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground, with NZD/USD declining 1.56% this week. In Thursday’s North American trade, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6563, down 0.17% on the day. On the release front, U.S., unemployment claims was unexpectedly high, climbing to 222 thousand. This was the highest reading in five weeks. Later in the day, New Zealand releases the Business NZ Manufacturing Index. On Friday, the U.S. releases retail sales and consumer confidence reports.
In the U.S., consumer inflation remained soft in May. CPI slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.3% in the previous release. This matched the estimate. The core reading posted a gain of 0.1% for a fourth straight month, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. With the May inflation numbers remaining low, there could be more pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates in order to boost economic activity and inflation. The likelihood of further rates this year is increasing – the CME Group has set the odds of a July cut at 66% and another cut in September at 50%. Lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar less attractive to investors, so investors will be keeping an eye on alternative assets.
China is New Zealand’s largest trade partner, so it’s no surprise that the slowdown in the Chinese economy has hurt the export-reliant New Zealand economy. There are further signs that the Chinese economy is feeling the effects of the trade war with the U.S. Chinese consumer inflation rose at an annualized rate of 2.7% in May, matching the forecast. However, producer price inflation slowed to 0.6% in May, down from 0.9% in April. As well, Chinese auto sales plunged 16.4% in May, its worst monthly decline on record. This marked an 11th successive decline and comes after a 14.6% drop in April. The soft numbers are reflective of the slowdown which has gripped the Chinese economy, and investors remain concerned, as the trade war with the U.S. shows no signs of easing.
