Market movers ahead

  • After two weeks of central bank action, focus will likely turn to the real economy, where we will start to get PMI data for September.
  • If there is no increase in PMIs in the US, this will indicate that Q3 showed the weakest growth since 2009.
  • In Europe, it will be interesting to see if the service sector can continue to support growth despite the weakness in manufacturing.
  • A trade deal between the US and Japan could be signed and there could be news about the US-China trade war, with high-level talks expected in early October.
  • Swedish NIER survey data will be scrutinised for clues whether the recent bad labour market data paint a true picture of the economy.

Weekly wrap-up

  • Norges Bank hiked interest rates and maintained a hiking bias, although it lowered its expectations for the future level of interest rates.
  • The Fed cut rates and maintained its easing bias, as widely expected.
  • Drone attacks in Saudi Arabia caused a spike in the oil price and a drop in risk sentiment, but both proved temporary.
  • Long yields have increased recently, but we expect them to head lower again.

Full report in PDF.

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